Try the model
WVU

West Virginia 43 at Arizona State 42

ASU
2015 · Motel 6 Cactus Bowl · Jan 2, 2016 · Chase Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreWVU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+6.2ASU 52.2%Zane Gonzalez 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 36 - HOME 35 · Q4 14:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:09 · Zane Gonzalez 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:02: Gary Jennings 64 Yd pass from Skyler Howard (Josh Lambert Kick) — WVU win probability +14.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:35: Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 33 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +17.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:01: Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 17 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +24.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:56: Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 58 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +37.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:19: Skyler Howard pass complete to David Sills for 15 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +42.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:02WVU 4th & 3 at ASU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:22ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:57WVU 4th & 14 at ASU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:27ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:06ASU 4th & 8 at WVU 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:13WVU 4th & 3 at ASU 10, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:52ASU 4th & 7 at WVU 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:34WVU 4th & 8 at ASU 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:48ASU 4th & 7 at midfield, down 6
    Close callPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:05WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 18, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:01WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:41ASU 4th & 2 at WVU 45, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−1.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:53ASU 4th & 1 at WVU 1, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−9.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:18ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:01WVU 4th & 11 at WVU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:08ASU 4th & 4 at WVU 22, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−11.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:09ASU 4th & 5 at WVU 30, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−3.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:21WVU 4th & 14 at WVU 37, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−5.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:19WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−5.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:26ASU 4th & 10 at midfield, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.2%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 9:59ASU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:02WVU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:28WVU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:34ASU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:02WVU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:35ASU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:01WVU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:56ASU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:19WVU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WVUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 2:5343% → 43%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 11 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
57.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Rushel Shell for 4 yds to the WVirg 40 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the WVirg 25Similar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 21
OWN 25
-5
57.2%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 20Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 26
OWN 20
+53
57.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 53 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
57.1%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+16
57.1%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 16 yds to the ArzSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
57.0%
Wendell Smallwood run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
57.0%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Daikiel ShortsSimilar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+6
57.1%
Wendell Smallwood run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
57.0%
Josh Lambert 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2157% → 57%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
57.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
57.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
57.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
56.9%
Matt Haack punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:1643% → 44%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
57.0%
Rushel Shell run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 28Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+14
57.0%
Rushel Shell run for 14 yds to the WVirg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
56.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 26 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
56.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+18
56.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 18 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
56.4%
Rushel Shell run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
56.4%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Rushel ShellSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
56.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q1 8:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
56.4%
Josh Lambert 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2356% → 56%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.1%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
56.1%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
55.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 5 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-2
55.6%
Matt Haack punt for 41 yds , KJ Dillon returns for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3944% → 44%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.7%
Wendell Smallwood run for no gain to the WVirg 25Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.8%
Skyler Howard run for 7 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+18
55.6%
Skyler Howard pass intercepted Salamo Fiso return for 18 yds to the WVirg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2557% → 57%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
57.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
57.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the WVirg 17Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 5
OPP 17
-5
56.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 22Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+2
56.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the WVirg 20Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
56.6%
Zane Gonzalez 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:4744% → 46%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
56.3%
Elijah Wellman run for 17 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
55.6%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 31 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
55.0%
Elijah Wellman run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
54.9%
Wendell Smallwood run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
55.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
53.6%
Josh Lambert 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:0355% → 54%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
54.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 7 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-1
55.0%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+19
53.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 19 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
55.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
55.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 3 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
55.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
53.7%
Matt Haack punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:1047% → 47%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
53.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 32 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
51.6%
Rushel Shell run for no gain to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
51.6%
Skyler Howard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
51.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q2 14:34
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
52.7%
Nick O'Toole punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:2653% → 53%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
53.1%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+29
52.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 29 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
54.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Gary ChambersSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
54.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 7
50
0
54.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 7
50
0
52.6%
Matt Haack punt for 41 yds, downed at the WVirg 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3848% → 48%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
51.9%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-4 Yards) to the WVirg 5Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+4
51.8%
Wendell Smallwood run for 4 yds to the WVirg 9Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
51.6%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+9
51.6%
Wendell Smallwood run for 9 yds to the WVirg 18Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+16
51.6%
Nick O'Toole punt for 38 yds , Tim White returns for 16 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:5753% → 62%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
52.8%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the WVirg 39Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+21
52.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 21 yds to the WVirg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
53.5%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 19Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+19
61.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 19 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4642% → 40%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.5%
Rushel Shell run for 4 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
58.0%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to David SillsSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
58.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
60.0%
Nick O'Toole punt for 40 yds , Tim White returns for 4 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0962% → 61%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
62.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 16 yds to the ARIZONAST 49 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 4
OWN 41
0
61.3%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
62.1%
Mike Bercovici run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
62.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 7
50
0
62.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 7
50
+5
61.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 5 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
61.0%
Matt Haack punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3141% → 55%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
59.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 21 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+59
44.6%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 59 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:5147% → 55%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
46.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 22 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
48.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 18 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
50.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
50.0%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+7
49.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 7 yds to the WVirg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
51.1%
Demario Richard run for 22 yds to the WVirg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
51.0%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the WVirg 1Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.0%
Mike Bercovici run for no gain to the WVirg 1Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.4%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the WVirg 1Similar
Q2 2:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
54.9%
Zane Gonzalez 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:1847% → 63%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.6%
Rushel Shell run for 2 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
51.6%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Rushel Shell for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 25Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
52.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 16 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
49.1%
Howard, Skyler pass incomplete to White, Ka'Raun, PENALTY ARIZONAST roughing passer 15 yards to the ARIZONAST44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
47.6%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 22 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
46.4%
Wendell Smallwood run for no gain to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+17
46.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 17 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
45.9%
Wendell Smallwood run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
33.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert PAT BLOCKED), (Josh Lambert PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+98
36.6%
Tim White Defensive PAT Conversion Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:2047% → 57%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
46.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 19 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
49.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 10 yds to the WVirg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
48.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 5 yds to the WVirg 17Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+35
57.0%
Zane Gonzalez 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:1751% → 67%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
50.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
52.4%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+4
51.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Demario Richard for 4 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+40
52.2%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 40 yds to the WVirg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
54.8%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the WVirg 10Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+7
54.7%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the WVirg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
54.7%
Mike Bercovici run for 1 yd to the WVirg 2Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2438% → 53%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.7%
Wendell Smallwood run for 7 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
59.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 29Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
62.5%
Rushel Shell run for 7 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+64
46.7%
Gary Jennings 64 Yd pass from Skyler Howard (Josh Lambert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2449% → 46%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
48.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+2
48.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+4
47.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 4 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
46.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+21
45.7%
Matt Haack punt for 54 yds , Gary Jennings returns for 21 yds to the WVirg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0956% → 53%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
44.5%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jordan ThompsonSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
44.9%
Skyler Howard run for 2 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-3
45.5%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Elijah Wellman for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 38Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 11
OWN 38
+10
46.6%
Nick O'Toole punt for 38 yds , Tim White returns for 10 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:1347% → 69%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
46.9%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+18
47.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 18 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
50.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+10
50.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 10 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
51.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
69.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 33 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1337% → 65%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for 4 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
62.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 17 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+37
59.6%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 37 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
34.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 17 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26MISSED FG
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3849% → 44%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
49.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
48.9%
Mike Bercovici run for 3 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-5
46.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 30Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+8
44.0%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 8 yds to the WVirg 22Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
43.7%
Zane Gonzalez 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27INT
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:2962% → 64%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
38.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to William Crest Jr. for 9 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+25
35.9%
Skyler Howard pass intercepted Kareem Orr return for 25 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5148% → 52%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
48.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 4 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+1
48.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 1 yd to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
46.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
52.2%
Zane Gonzalez 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:4153% → 50%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
47.0%
Wendell Smallwood run for 16 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
43.3%
Wendell Smallwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 39Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-2
45.6%
Skyler Howard sacked by Salamo Fiso for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 37Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
48.4%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
50.0%
Nick O'Toole punt for 47 yds, downed at the ArzSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 30PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:5349% → 53%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
48.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
49.0%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+12
48.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 12 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
53.2%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
51.0%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+15
48.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 15 yds to the WVirg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
55.4%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Gary ChambersSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
55.0%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the WVirg 42Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
52.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 31PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:4155% → 57%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
45.0%
Rushel Shell run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 6Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 12
OWN 6
0
45.5%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Gary JenningsSimilar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+13
47.1%
Rushel Shell run for 13 yds to the WVirg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
41.6%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Devonte MathisSimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
42.2%
Wendell Smallwood run for 7 yds to the WVirg 26Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+4
40.1%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Gary Jennings for 4 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
38.0%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to David SillsSimilar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
39.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Gary JenningsSimilar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
40.7%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Ka'Raun WhiteSimilar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+3
42.7%
Nick O'Toole punt for 46 yds , Tim White returns for 3 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 32TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:2348% → 87%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
47.9%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
52.7%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
49.6%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+58
87.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 58 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 33TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2522% → 74%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
77.8%
Skyler Howard run for 11 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.1%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Gary JenningsSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
75.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Wendell Smallwood for 4 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+20
75.1%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 20 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
71.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 13 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
67.5%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
70.2%
Skyler Howard sacked by Antonio Longino for a loss of 10 yards to the ArzSt 39 Skyler Howard fumbled, recovered by WVirgSimilar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 22
OPP 39
+24
79.0%
Wendell Smallwood run for 24 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
69.2%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Gary JenningsSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
26.5%
Skyler Howard pass complete to David Sills for 15 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 34DOWNS
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:4151% → 44%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
47.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
50
0
52.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
50
0
51.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 10
50
0
46.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 10
50
0
43.8%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 35END OF GAME
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:1879% → 95%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
50
+4
21.4%
Skyler Howard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+11
17.0%
Skyler Howard run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
5.0%
- Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:19
Skyler Howard pass complete to David Sills for 15 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
-42.7
TD · Q4 4:56
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 58 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+37.7
TD · Q3 3:01
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 17 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
-24.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com