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ORE

Oregon 41 at TCU 47

TCU
2015 · Valero Alamo Bowl · Jan 2, 2016 · Alamodome
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+31.5TCU 59.5%Jaden Oberkrom 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 31 - HOME 31 · Q4 0:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:19 · Jaden Oberkrom 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3Play 195Home team on offense+4.2Score differential−1.0Pregame prior−0.1Garbage-time factor−1.1Time remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 3:32: Aaron Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Shaun Nixon pass to Buck Jones for Two-Point Conversion) — TCU win probability +31.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  2. FG · Q4 0:19: Jaden Oberkrom 22 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +31.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +38.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. FG · OT2 0:00: Jaden Oberkrom 46 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +23.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT3 0:00: Bram Kohlhausen run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TCU win probability +21.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:11ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:01TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:31TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:21TCU 4th & 13 at ORE 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:13TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:13TCU 4th & 4 at ORE 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:17ORE 4th & 6 at TCU 47, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:27TCU 4th & 13 at ORE 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:13ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 14, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:13ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 29, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:32ORE 4th & 8 at TCU 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:52TCU 4th & 6 at ORE 6, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:05ORE 4th & 20 at ORE 33, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:59TCU 4th & 2 at ORE 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:18TCU 4th & 5 at ORE 26, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:36TCU 4th & 2 at ORE 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−5.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:58ORE 4th & 9 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:45TCU 4th & 11 at ORE 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−2.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−4.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:40ORE 4th & 7 at TCU 42, up 11
    Close callPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:17ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−6.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:19TCU 4th & 1 at ORE 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−15.2
    67% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−36.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:29ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:12ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:27ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:30ORE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:18TCU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:36TCU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:32TCU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    19.4%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4966% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
34.2%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 18
-8
34.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 10Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 14
OWN 10
+4
34.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
35.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1035% → 35%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
35.1%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-1
35.4%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
35.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
35.4%
Ethan Perry punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:3265% → 66%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
35.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 8 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+8
35.4%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
35.6%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
35.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
35.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 11 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
35.6%
Charles Nelson run for 6 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
35.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for no gain to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+37
34.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 37 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5835% → 34%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.6%
KaVontae Turpin run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
34.6%
KaVontae Turpin run for 9 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
34.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+8
34.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 8 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
34.8%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+1
34.4%
Ethan Perry punt for 37 yds , Bralon Addison returns for 1 yd to the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:1966% → 70%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+28
34.3%
Taj Griffin run for 28 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
33.7%
Taj Griffin run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 9
50
+4
33.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+30
33.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 30 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
33.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 6 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+6
33.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 6 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
33.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.1%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:5132% → 30%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.5%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+29
31.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 29 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
32.3%
TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 25
OWN 42
+6
30.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 6 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+6
30.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
30.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
30.3%
Ethan Perry punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 1:5071% → 79%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
29.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
29.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+44
29.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 44 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
28.7%
Adams Jr., Vernon pass complete to Addison, Bralon for 39 yards to the TCU1, PENALTY OREGON illegal touching (Addison, Bralon) 0 yards to the TCU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
28.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for 13 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
28.4%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+15
28.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 15 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.2%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:4723% → 22%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
22.5%
KaVontae Turpin run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
22.4%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Aaron GreenSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-6
22.0%
Bram Kohlhausen sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
21.7%
Ethan Perry punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:4380% → 79%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
20.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 15 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+42
19.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 42 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:0820% → 18%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.9%
KaVontae Turpin run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
19.6%
Kohlhausen, Bram pass complete to Nixon, Shaun for 9 yards to the TCU37, PENALTY TCU holding (Vaitai, Halapoulivaati) 10 yards to the TCU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+19
19.6%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Tony James for 19 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
19.5%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+24
18.6%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 24 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
19.7%
KaVontae Turpin run for 3 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
19.7%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
18.2%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
17.8%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5681% → 81%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
18.6%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
18.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. sacked by Travin Howard for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Carraway) to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
17.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Charles Nelson for 12 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
17.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
17.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
17.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
18.9%
Ian Wheeler pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5017% → 16%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
17.1%
Aaron Green run for 10 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
17.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the Oregn 35 TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (KaVontae Turpin) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 17
50
+4
16.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 4 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
16.6%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
16.4%
Ethan Perry punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:1483% → 83%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
16.8%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
16.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Darren Carrington for no gain to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
17.1%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+8
17.9%
Ian Wheeler punt blocked by Garrett Kaufman recovered by DeForest Buckner run for 8 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
15.9%
Taj Griffin run for 11 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
16.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
15.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-11
14.8%
Jeff Lockie sacked by Ty Summers for a loss of 11 yards to the Oregn 29 OREGON Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jeff Lockie) to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
17.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4820% → 12%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
19.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-2
20.1%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 12
OWN 26
0
12.4%
Bram Kohlhausen pass intercepted Charles Nelson return for no gain to the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 2:4785% → 92%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
15.2%
Taj Griffin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-2
15.0%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+24
14.8%
Royce Freeman run for 24 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
13.1%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+9
11.6%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Bralon Addison for 9 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
10.7%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Darren Carrington for 4 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
9.9%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Bralon AddisonSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+3
10.3%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Darren Carrington for 3 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 3
OPP 25
-5
11.5%
OREGON Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
7.7%
Aidan Schneider 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:326% → 5%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 9 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
5.0%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:088% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
7.9%
Tony James pass complete to Aaron Green for 20 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
9.3%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+5
9.7%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
9.7%
Green, Aaron rush for 5 yards to the OREGON36, PENALTY TCU holding (Vaitai, Halapoulivaati) 10 yards to the TCU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+5
9.1%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 5 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+18
9.0%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 18 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
9.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 19 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
11.6%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 11Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
10.8%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 1 yd to the Oregn 10Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
10.1%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 4 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
6.6%
Jaden Oberkrom 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:3995% → 96%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
4.9%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-20
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the Oregn 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Oregn Jeff LockieSimilar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 24
OWN 29
+4
4.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 20
OWN 33
0
4.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:386% → 7%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
5.6%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
5.1%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+25
5.1%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 25 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
5.8%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 5 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
5.6%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+3
5.3%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 3 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+3
5.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
5.4%
Merka, Dominic pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGON 12 men on the field 5 yards to the OREGON26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 5
OPP 26
-5
5.5%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
5.2%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
5.1%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Shaun Nixon TCU Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+3
4.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 3 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+26
6.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 26 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:317% → 15%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
7.0%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
6.9%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 1 yd to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+14
6.0%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 14 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.2%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.7%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
5.2%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 2Similar
Q3 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.8%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:3889% → 92%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.3%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
10.7%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
10.8%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+6
10.4%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
8.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
8.3%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-5
7.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line TEAM fumbled, recovered by Oregn Jeff Lockie , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 9
50
0
8.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 43 yds, downed at the TCU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22FG
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:1311% → 13%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
11.0%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Tony James) to the TCU 4Similar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 13
OWN 4
0
11.0%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+10
10.8%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 10 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+36
11.0%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Aaron Green for 36 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
50
+9
12.5%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
10.8%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
10.4%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+21
10.2%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 21 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
11.3%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-1
9.7%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 14Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 8
OPP 14
-3
8.2%
Bram Kohlhausen sacked by Tyson Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 17 Bram Kohlhausen fumbled, forced by Tyson Coleman, recovered by TCU Kyle Hicks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+34
12.5%
Jaden Oberkrom 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0591% → 91%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
9.0%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Bralon Addison for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+4
8.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
8.6%
Jeff Lockie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
9.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 3:0810% → 42%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+19
9.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 19 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
9.1%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 9 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 1
OWN 37
-10
10.3%
Sawyer, Foster rush for 8 yards to the TCU45, PENALTY TCU holding 10 yards to the TCU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+8
8.1%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 8 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+4
9.0%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 4 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
9.1%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 29 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
12.0%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 16 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
11.3%
Kohlhausen, Bram pass incomplete to Porter, Emanuel, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Seisay, Chris) 14 yards to the OREGON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q4 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.3%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Shaun Nixon pass to Buck Jones for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0178% → 77%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
22.5%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 10Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
21.2%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
22.6%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 9
OWN 10
+9
23.4%
Ian Wheeler punt for 35 yds , Desmon White returns for 9 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 1:5837% → 60%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
36.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 5 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+7
41.0%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
40.1%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+9
37.8%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
37.1%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+6
37.1%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
28.1%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+22
59.5%
Jaden Oberkrom 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0958% → 61%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
41.7%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Royce Freeman for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-7
39.0%
Jeff Lockie sacked by Terrell Lathan for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
64.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 3 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+11
64.7%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 11 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
64.7%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
81.6%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 7 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
80.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the TCU 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
79.3%
Jeff Lockie run for 1 yd to the TCU 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
86.0%
Jeff Lockie pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+17
89.5%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Royce Freeman for 17 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.3%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.5%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 30FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 71%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
Charles Nelson run for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-2
43.7%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Bralon Addison for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 27Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
29.0%
Aidan Schneider 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 31FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 54%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.3%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Tony JamesSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
35.4%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-3
31.3%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Kyle Hicks for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 28Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+46
54.4%
Jaden Oberkrom 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 32TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 86%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
64.7%
Aaron Green run for 12 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
64.7%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
OT3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
85.9%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 33Uncategorized
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 11%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
75.8%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
OT3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
78.1%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the TCU 17Similar
OT3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-6
79.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Oregn Jeff LockieSimilar
OT3 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 23
0
88.7%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-38.8
FG · Q4 0:19
Jaden Oberkrom 22 yd FG GOOD
+31.5
TD · Q4 3:32
Aaron Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Shaun Nixon pass to Buck Jones for Two-Point Conversion)
+31
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com