Try the model
PSU

Penn State 17 at Georgia 24

UGA
2015 · TaxSlayer Bowl · Jan 2, 2016 · EverBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:29 · Collin Barber punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense+6.8Pregame prior+8.9Garbage-time factor+1.7Score differential+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Time remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:46: Terry Godwin pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 44 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK) — UGA win probability +7.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 17 yds for a TD, (Patrick Beless KICK) — UGA win probability +10.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:15: Sony Michel run for 21 yds for a TD, (Patrick Beless KICK) — UGA win probability +8.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: Trace McSorley pass complete to Geno Lewis for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:14: Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 20 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10PSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 7:02UGA 4th & 3 at PSU 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.2%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:52PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 30, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15PSU 4th & 3 at UGA 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:34UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:54PSU 4th & 3 at UGA 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:52UGA 4th & 1 at PSU 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:08PSU 4th & 9 at UGA 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:33PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.3%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:29UGA 4th & 11 at PSU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:54PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:11UGA 4th & 5 at PSU 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:57PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:27UGA 4th & 18 at PSU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:07PSU 4th & 6 at UGA 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−1.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:53PSU 4th & 12 at UGA 17, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−2.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:58UGA 4th & 19 at UGA 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:56PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:18UGA 4th & 16 at UGA 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:48PSU 4th & 8 at UGA 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:52UGA 4th & 2 at PSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−3.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:59PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−4.6
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:11PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 6:46UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:24UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:15UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:53PSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:14PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1INT
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:5234% → 35%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
66.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 1 yd to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+1
65.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+18
65.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 18 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
65.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 20 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
65.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 13 yds to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
65.3%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Geo 30Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-3
65.2%
Brandon Polk run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 33Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 13
OPP 33
-5
65.3%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Andrew Nelson) to the Geo 38Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 18
OPP 38
0
65.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Dominick Sanders return for no gain to the Geo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4766% → 66%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
66.0%
Sony Michel run for 6 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
66.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+13
66.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 13 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
66.1%
Terry Godwin run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+5
65.7%
Greyson Lambert run for 5 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
65.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+5
65.3%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Anthony Zettel) to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
66.2%
Marshall Morgan 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5434% → 34%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
66.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
65.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris Godwin, broken up by Aaron DavisSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
66.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+44
66.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 44 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5466% → 65%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.9%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
65.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Jay RomeSimilar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
65.5%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
65.2%
Brice Ramsey punt for 39 yds, downed at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3034% → 34%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
66.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Natrez Patrick) to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
65.1%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Brent Wilkerson) to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+12
65.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 12 yds to the Geo 40Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
64.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
65.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
65.7%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 35 yds, downed at the Geo 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3466% → 65%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
65.7%
Keith Marshall run for 5 yds to the Geo 10Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+1
65.4%
Keith Marshall run for 1 yd to the Geo 11Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
64.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
64.5%
Brice Ramsey punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2935% → 35%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
64.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+1
64.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+4
64.7%
Christian Hackenberg run for 4 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
65.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:5765% → 66%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
65.4%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 14Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
65.2%
Brice Ramsey pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+28
64.6%
Sony Michel run for 28 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
66.5%
Keith Marshall run for 4 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
66.8%
Keith Marshall run for 3 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
66.3%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Jeb Blazevich for 2 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
65.7%
Collin Barber punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:3634% → 39%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
65.8%
Hackenberg, Christian rush for 6 yards to the PENNST17, PENALTY PENNST holding (Mahon, Brendan) 5 yards to the PENNST6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+19
66.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 19 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
65.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+51
66.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 51 yds to the Geo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
64.7%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 19Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
64.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+2
65.7%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Geo 17Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
61.3%
Tyler Davis 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:1366% → 75%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
65.5%
Isaiah McKenzie run for 26 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
67.3%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+44
74.8%
Terry Godwin pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 44 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5627% → 27%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
73.1%
Brandon Polk run for 7 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
72.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 1 yd to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
72.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete, broken up by Rico McGrawSimilar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
73.5%
Evan Schwan run for no gain to the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4975% → 74%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
75.3%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-2
75.3%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
74.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Sony Michel for no gain to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
73.6%
Collin Barber punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2725% → 24%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
74.7%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
74.9%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+2
75.4%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
75.6%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:2375% → 86%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
75.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 9 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
75.9%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
76.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 18 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
76.8%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
75.7%
Sony Michel run for 11 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
75.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
86.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 17 yds for a TD, (Patrick Beless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:1218% → 19%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
81.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Kyle Carter for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4083% → 84%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Jeb Blazevich for 11 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
83.7%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 29 Sony Michel fumbled, forced by Marcus Allen, recovered by GeoSimilar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
83.4%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Sony MichelSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+23
82.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 23 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
84.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 2 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
85.0%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
84.6%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Terry Godwin, broken up by Anthony ZettelSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
84.2%
Brice Ramsey punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0716% → 15%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris Godwin, broken up by Dominick SandersSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
84.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
84.5%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+37
85.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 39 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 37 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:2386% → 83%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
86.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Jay RomeSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
86.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (John Theus) to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+6
84.1%
Sony Michel run for 6 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-9
84.5%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 18
OPP 31
+48
83.3%
Collin Barber 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1517% → 17%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
82.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnSt DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+4
84.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+19
84.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 19 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
81.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
82.5%
Nick Scott run for 4 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
82.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
83.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:4287% → 97%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
87.1%
Keith Marshall run for 9 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
87.6%
Greyson Lambert run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
87.9%
Greyson Lambert run for 7 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+6
88.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 6 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
88.1%
Keith Marshall run for 4 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+7
88.6%
Keith Marshall run for 7 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
96.6%
Sony Michel run for 21 yds for a TD, (Patrick Beless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:114% → 12%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.1%
Brandon Polk run for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
96.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
96.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
50
+6
96.6%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+29
96.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 29 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-4
96.5%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 19Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+7
97.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 7 yds to the Geo 12Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 7
OPP 12
-5
97.6%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Derek Dowrey) to the Geo 17Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+17
88.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Geno Lewis for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:4793% → 93%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
93.3%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Austin Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Geo 39Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+16
93.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 16 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-15
93.5%
GEORGIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Isaiah Wynn) to the Geo 40Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 18
OWN 40
-1
93.3%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 39Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 19
OWN 39
0
92.7%
Brice Ramsey punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5210% → 9%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
90.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 18 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
89.3%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
90.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
90.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
91.4%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2995% → 95%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
94.7%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 25Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+4
94.5%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
95.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 11
OWN 29
-5
94.6%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Malkom Parrish) to the Geo 24Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
94.6%
Brice Ramsey punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:569% → 22%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
91.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 20 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
91.0%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-1
89.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 36Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
91.4%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the Geo 36Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+16
92.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Geno Lewis for 16 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
91.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
77.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 20 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 26DOWNS
17 plays · 48 yds · 4:1588% → 97%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
88.4%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Jeb Blazevich) to the Geo 22Similar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+4
88.1%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 26Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+16
88.8%
Keith Marshall run for 16 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
90.6%
Keith Marshall run for 1 yd to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Austin Johnson) to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
93.2%
Keith Marshall run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+12
93.3%
Keith Marshall run for 12 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
94.1%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
94.4%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
95.2%
Keith Marshall run for 1 yd to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+5
95.7%
Keith Marshall run for 5 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 2
OPP 23
-2
97.3%
Keith Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27END OF GAME
10 plays · 36 yds · 1:428% → 10%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
92.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 4 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
92.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 8 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
92.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
91.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
92.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+14
92.7%
Trace McSorley run for 14 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
89.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
90.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Geno Lewis, broken up by Lorenzo CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:14
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 20 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q2 0:24
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Terry Godwin for 17 yds for a TD, (Patrick Beless KICK)
+10.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com