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OKST

Oklahoma State 20 at Ole Miss 48

MISS
2015 · Allstate Sugar Bowl · Jan 1, 2016 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.2MISS 66.8%Ben Grogan 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 4:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:52 · Ben Grogan 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Home team on offense−1.2Score differential−0.7Pregame prior+16.4Blowout margin+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:15: Gary Wunderlich 34 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +1.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:20: Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 31 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +5.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:28: Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 34 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +5.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:58: Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 10 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +10.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:00: Laremy Tunsil 2 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 10:30OKST 4th & 4 at MISS 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:53MISS 4th & 21 at MISS 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52OKST 4th & 2 at MISS 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.7%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:15MISS 4th & 3 at OKST 17, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:29OKST 4th & 23 at OKST 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:34OKST 4th & 15 at MISS 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:43OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:39MISS 4th & 10 at OKST 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:22OKST 4th & 10 at MISS 14, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:23OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 28, down 28
    Close callPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:07MISS 4th & 11 at OKST 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:57OKST 4th & 17 at OKST 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:10MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 16, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:03OKST 4th & 7 at MISS 7, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:28MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 6, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:33MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:20MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:28MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:58MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00MISS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:26MISS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:11OKST Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:04MISS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:03OKST Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:5770% → 70%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
69.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 13 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
69.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 17 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
69.6%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Ashton Lampkin return for 28 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5231% → 31%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
69.4%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
69.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 6 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
69.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 9 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+1
69.1%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
50
+2
68.9%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-10
68.8%
Mason Rudolph sacked by C.J. Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+14
69.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 14 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
68.7%
Zach Sinor punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:1469% → 68%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
68.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+5
69.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 5 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
68.9%
Chad Kelly sacked by Jordan Burton for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+5
68.5%
Chad Kelly run for 5 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 12
OWN 24
-9
68.2%
Chad Kelly sacked by Vincent Taylor for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 21
OWN 15
+23
68.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hunter Thurley at the OLEMISS 47 OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (A.J. Moore) to the Miss 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:4332% → 33%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
67.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 10 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
67.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 14
OPP 32
0
67.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+15
68.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kendarius Webster) to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
67.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 9 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
66.8%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the Miss 8Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-1
66.9%
J.W. Walsh run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 9Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+26
66.8%
Ben Grogan 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:2366% → 68%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
66.2%
Akeem Judd run for 22 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
67.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 17 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
67.7%
Akeem Judd run for 11 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
67.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 4 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
67.5%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+1
66.8%
Chad Kelly run for 1 yd to the OKSt 17Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
67.9%
Gary Wunderlich 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:3033% → 33%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for no gain to the OKSt 26 lat. to James Washington for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
66.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
66.9%
Mason Rudolph sacked by D.J. Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:3068% → 73%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
68.3%
Chad Kelly run for no gain to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+27
67.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 27 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
72.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 31 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:3629% → 28%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-13
71.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeremy Seaton) to the OKSt 12Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 23
OWN 12
-5
71.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Victor Salako) to the OKSt 7Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 28
OWN 7
+5
71.8%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 23
OWN 12
0
72.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
72.5%
Zach Sinor punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:5873% → 79%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
73.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
72.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 8 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+8
72.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 8 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
73.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 11 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
73.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-15
73.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Cody Core) to the OKSt 34Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 20
OPP 34
+34
78.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 34 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:4923% → 22%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
76.3%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 30Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
76.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 9 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
76.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 4 yds to the OKSt 43 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Blake Jarwin) to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 16
OWN 33
+27
77.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 27 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
76.4%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 45 Chris Carson fumbled, forced by Christian Russell, recovered by OKSt Chris CarsonSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
77.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
78.2%
Zach Sinor punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:2079% → 91%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
78.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+27
78.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 27 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
79.5%
Laquon Treadwell pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 45 yds to the OKSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the OKSt 10Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 10 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:0212% → 11%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 9 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
87.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 6 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
87.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
88.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+2
88.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 38 yds , Collins Moore returns for 2 yds to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:3691% → 92%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
91.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+43
91.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 28 yds to the OLEMISS 47 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
91.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 9 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+2
92.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the OKSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
92.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Jaylen WaltonSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
92.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
92.5%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
92.1%
Gary Wunderlich 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 1:5810% → 10%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Zac Veatch for 9 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
89.5%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
90.3%
Chris Carson run for 7 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+25
90.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 25 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
89.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 17 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
89.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
89.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
90.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
90.4%
Ben Grogan 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
13 plays · 74 yds · 1:0094% → 98%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
93.8%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
93.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+22
93.8%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Brailford) to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
94.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 23 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
94.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-6
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 30Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 16
OPP 30
+24
93.8%
Chad Kelly run for 24 yds to the OKSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
93.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Michael Hunter) to the OKSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.1%
Laremy Tunsil 2 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
98.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2611% → 2%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
97.4%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 20Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+8
98.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 8 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
98.2%
Zach Sinor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Collins Moore at the Miss 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17MISSED FG
13 plays · 39 yds · 4:1199% → 99%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
98.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Jaylen Walton for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+15
98.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kevin Peterson) to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
98.7%
Akeem Judd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+16
98.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 16 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.9%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
99.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Akeem JuddSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+13
99.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Derrick Jones for 13 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.1%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-1
99.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 21Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-15
99.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Derrick Jones) to the OKSt 36Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 22
OPP 36
+11
99.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 11 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
99.2%
Gary Wunderlich 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:011% → 1%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 14 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
99.1%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+1
99.2%
Mason Rudolph run for 1 yd to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-9
99.2%
Mason Rudolph sacked by C.J. Johnson and Marquis Haynes for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 32Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 17
OWN 32
-2
99.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 55 yds , Collins Moore returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
99.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for no gain to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+3
99.5%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 47 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for 3 yds to the OKSt 40 Jalen McCleskey fumbled, forced by Terry Caldwell, recovered by Miss Ryan BuchananSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
99.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 36 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:040% → 0%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.6%
J.W. Walsh run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+28
99.7%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Chris Carson for 28 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+33
99.6%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 33 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
99.6%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
99.7%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+18
99.7%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jeremy Seaton for 18 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.5%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.6%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Jeremy SeatonSimilar
Q3 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
J.W. Walsh run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.7%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
99.7%
Chad Kelly run for 4 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
99.7%
Chad Kelly run for 5 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+43
99.8%
Chad Kelly run for 43 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Laquon TreadwellSimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 14 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 68 yds · 5:480% → 0%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.8%
J.W. Walsh run for 13 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
99.8%
J.W. Walsh run for 30 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.8%
J.W. Walsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
99.8%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+11
99.9%
J.W. Walsh run for 11 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.8%
J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
99.9%
J.W. Walsh run for 4 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+6
99.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 6 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jeff Carr for no gain to the Miss 8Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
99.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Blake Jarwin for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
99.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 6 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q4 7:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-4
99.9%
Ryan Buchanan run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 3 Ryan Buchanan fumbled, recovered by Miss Ryan BuchananSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 14
OWN 3
+3
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 3 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 11
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Ryan Buchanan pass incomplete to Derrick JonesSimilar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 11
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Raymond Taylor run for 3 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+18
99.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to David Glidden for 18 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.9%
J.W. Walsh run for 5 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+20
99.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 20 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
J.W. Walsh run for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for no gain to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 50 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for no gain to the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:58
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 10 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q1 0:20
Chad Kelly pass complete to Cody Core for 31 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q2 11:28
Chad Kelly pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 34 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com