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ND

Notre Dame 28 at Ohio State 44

OSU
2015 · BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl · Jan 1, 2016 · State Farm Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:22 · Cameron Johnston punt for 46 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 194Home team on offense+31.3Pregame prior+0.1Score differential+14.1Garbage-time factor+14.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+19.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+8.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:48: Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:29: DeShone Kizer 1 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +9.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:58: Chris Brown 4 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +10.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:37: Ezekiel Elliott 47 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:27: Will Fuller 81 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +8.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:54ND 4th & 3 at ND 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26ND 4th & 9 at ND 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:15ND 4th & 17 at OSU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:26OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.6%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:12OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:34ND 4th & 1 at ND 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.1%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:52ND 4th & 10 at ND 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:00OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 49, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:24ND 4th & 6 at ND 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:10OSU 4th & 11 at ND 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:09OSU 4th & 12 at ND 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−4.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:18ND 4th & 18 at ND 2, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:42OSU 4th & 5 at ND 18, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:22OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 46, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:53OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:41OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:34ND Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:55OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:48OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:29ND Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:58ND Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:37OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:27ND Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5631% → 31%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
69.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
69.4%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+4
69.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
69.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4369% → 71%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
69.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+7
69.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
69.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Braxton Miller for 9 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+27
69.4%
Braxton Miller run for 27 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
69.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 7 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+11
69.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 11 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
69.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the NDame 5Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
69.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
70.8%
Ezekiel Elliott 2 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0930% → 29%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
70.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 3 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
70.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-5
70.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Ronnie Stanley) to the NDame 10Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+3
70.7%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 9
OWN 13
+11
71.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 41 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 11 yds to the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:3971% → 74%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
71.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 27 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
71.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the NDame 15 J.T. Barrett fumbled, forced by Sheldon Day, recovered by OhSt Jacoby BorenSimilar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
74.1%
Michael Thomas 15 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:0627% → 24%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
73.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 12 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.4%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
73.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 10 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
73.6%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
73.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Joey Bosa ejected for targeting) to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
73.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 5 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+8
73.5%
Josh Adams run for 8 yds to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
73.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Mike McGlinchey) to the OhSt 37Similar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-8
74.8%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Darron Lee for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 45Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 23
OPP 45
+6
75.9%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 17
OPP 39
0
75.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
76.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 34 yds, downed at the OhSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:5477% → 79%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
76.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+1
77.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the OhSt 12Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+10
77.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 10 yds to the OhSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
77.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-1
78.1%
Braxton Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 27Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+4
77.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 14:26
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+4
77.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
78.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
79.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Dontre WilsonSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
79.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Ezekiel ElliottSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
78.6%
Cameron Johnston punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 5:3322% → 28%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
77.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 9 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
77.4%
DeShone Kizer run for no gain to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+1
78.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
78.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Joshua Perry) to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
78.0%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
78.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 3 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+11
78.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 11 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
78.0%
Torii Hunter Jr. pass incomplete to Alize JonesSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
78.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 11 yds to the OhSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
78.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Durham Smythe for 5 yds to the OhSt 13Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
78.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+6
79.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 6 yds to the OhSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.2%
Josh Adams 3 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 62 yds · 2:2076% → 84%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
75.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
76.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
76.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Braxton Miller for 3 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
76.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
76.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+7
76.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
77.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
76.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 16 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
77.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+14
77.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 14 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.5%
Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5519% → 18%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.1%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
81.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
82.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+29
82.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 57 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 29 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:5683% → 94%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
83.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
50
+2
84.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+30
84.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 30 yds to the NDame 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
85.1%
Jalin Marshall run for 15 yds to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
85.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.2%
Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:148% → 20%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
91.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 15 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
91.4%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+14
91.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for 14 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
90.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for 12 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
90.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for 15 yds to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
90.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+14
90.0%
DeShone Kizer run for 14 yds to the OhSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.2%
DeShone Kizer 1 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
86.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13INT
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:5784% → 87%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
84.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 3 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
84.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 13 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
85.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 10 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
85.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
86.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
85.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
86.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+21
86.5%
J.T. Barrett pass intercepted Joe Schmidt return for 21 yds to the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:4516% → 28%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
83.9%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+19
83.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 19 yds to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
82.6%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+20
82.8%
Amir Carlisle run for 20 yds to the OhSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
82.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
82.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Alize Jones for 7 yds to the OhSt 4Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
71.8%
Chris Brown 4 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1378% → 90%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
78.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 10 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
80.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+7
79.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+6
80.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 6 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
89.6%
Ezekiel Elliott 47 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:2613% → 13%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.7%
Josh Adams run for 12 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
86.0%
Josh Adams run for 8 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
85.2%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
50
0
85.0%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 10
50
0
86.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 10
50
+4
86.6%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted Tyvis Powell return for 4 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5490% → 90%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
90.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-7
90.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+11
90.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 11 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
90.1%
Cameron Johnston punt for 46 yds, downed at the NDame 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2610% → 10%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
89.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 2 yds to the NDame 7Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+2
90.0%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 9
0
90.3%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 6
OWN 9
+14
90.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 59 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 14 yds to the OhSt 23 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eli Apple) to the OhSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:1093% → 96%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
93.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
50
+5
93.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
93.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 3 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+7
93.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
93.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+9
94.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 9 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-6
94.1%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Andrew Trumbetti for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+5
94.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
94.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+37
95.7%
Sean Nuernberger 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:335% → 14%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
95.4%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+81
86.5%
Will Fuller 81 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21FG
17 plays · 42 yds · 5:0487% → 97%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
87.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
87.9%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+14
87.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 14 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
88.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
88.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+9
89.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
90.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
90.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Curtis SamuelSimilar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
91.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+10
90.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cole Luke) to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
92.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-2
92.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 16Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-5
93.2%
J.T. Barrett sacked by James Onwualu for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 21Similar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
96.6%
Sean Nuernberger 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:396% → 6%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
93.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-1
94.0%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Tyquan Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 9Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 11
OWN 9
-7
94.3%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Sam Hubbard for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 2Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 18
OWN 2
+19
94.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 40 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 19 yds to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:2898% → 99%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
97.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-1
97.8%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+1
98.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the NDame 18Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
99.2%
Sean Nuernberger 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:013% → 3%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+19
97.5%
Josh Adams run for 19 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.3%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 6 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
97.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 7 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
97.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Alize Jones for 17 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
97.0%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Darron Lee for a loss of 9 yards to the OhSt 47 DeShone Kizer fumbled, forced by Darron Lee, recovered by OhSt Tracy Sprinkle at the OhSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 45Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
99.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
99.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 3
OPP 49
-5
99.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
99.2%
Cameron Johnston punt for 46 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:151% → 1%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
99.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+19
99.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 19 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:58
Chris Brown 4 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)
-10.8
TD · Q2 0:29
DeShone Kizer 1 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
-9.8
TD · Q3 6:37
Ezekiel Elliott 47 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com