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NU

Northwestern 6 at Tennessee 45

TENN
2015 · Outback Bowl · Jan 1, 2016 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:17 · Hunter Niswander punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+27.4Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:14: Joshua Dobbs 14 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +2.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:40: Justin Jackson 5 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell PAT failed) — NU win probability +6.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 2:18: Alvin Kamara 11 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +7.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:40: Jalen Hurd 3 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +8.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:42: Joshua Dobbs 18 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 14:05NU 4th & 7 at NU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:47TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:17NU 4th & 10 at NU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:58TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:34TENN 4th & 19 at NU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:59NU 4th & 9 at TENN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:12NU 4th & 14 at NU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:47TENN 4th & 10 at NU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:33NU 4th & 1 at NU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.6%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:35NU 4th & 13 at NU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:37TENN 4th & 10 at NU 32, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:27NU 4th & 23 at NU 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:29TENN 4th & 1 at NU 7, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.6%−1.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−6.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:42TENN 4th & 10 at NU 48, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:18NU 4th & 2 at NU 28, down 18
    Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:51NU 4th & 2 at NU 33, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:21TENN 4th & 12 at NU 45, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:51TENN 4th & 1 at NU 23, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:07NU 4th & 10 at NU 35, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:14TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:40NU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:18TENN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:40TENN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:42TENN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:24TENN Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:08TENN Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5120% → 20%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
80.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
80.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0580% → 80%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
80.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+6
80.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 6 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-5
79.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Chance Hall) to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+6
79.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 6 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
79.5%
Trevor Daniel punt for 57 yds, downed at the Nwest 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:2420% → 21%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
79.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+11
79.4%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
79.2%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
79.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+11
79.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
78.9%
Warren Long run for 1 yd to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-8
78.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Darrin Kirkland Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+7
78.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 7 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
78.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0879% → 78%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
78.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
78.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
78.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Tenn 48Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
78.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.0%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Malik Foreman return for no gain to the Nwest 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6MISSED FG
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:5679% → 78%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-9
78.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 6 yds to the Nwest 16 TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jauan Jennings) to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 19
OPP 31
0
78.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 19
OPP 31
0
78.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 19
OPP 31
+49
77.5%
Aaron Medley 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:0523% → 24%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
77.3%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+25
77.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 10 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
76.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
75.9%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 26Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+2
75.8%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
76.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
76.4%
Jack Mitchell 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3677% → 81%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+42
76.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alex Ellis for 42 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
78.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+7
77.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+16
77.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 16 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
77.7%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Anthony Walker for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 14Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
80.7%
Joshua Dobbs 14 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5320% → 20%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
79.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
79.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-2
80.1%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+41
80.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 41 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:1380% → 81%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
80.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
80.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 10 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
80.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+6
80.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 6 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+5
80.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
80.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+9
80.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
80.9%
Von Pearson run for no gain to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
81.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
80.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
80.7%
Aaron Medley 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0119% → 28%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
80.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
81.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 7 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
81.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
80.6%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+16
80.7%
Justin Jackson run for 16 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
80.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
80.0%
Warren Long run for 3 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+21
79.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 21 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
79.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 11 yds to the Tenn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
79.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Tenn 5Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
72.4%
Justin Jackson 5 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1676% → 86%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
75.6%
Dobbs, Joshua pass sacked for loss of 8 yards to the TENNESSEE24 (Walker, Anthony), PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding (Harris, Matthew) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
77.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+22
77.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alex Ellis for 22 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
78.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+12
78.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Marquez North for 12 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
78.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
77.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+11
85.9%
Alvin Kamara 11 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:2515% → 14%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
85.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 6 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+5
85.1%
Thorson, Clayton rush for no gain to the NORTHWSTRN20, PENALTY TENNESSEE offside (Barnett, Derek) 5 yards to the NORTHWSTRN25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
84.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Warren Long for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-7
84.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 33 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Nwest Eric Olson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
85.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+2
85.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 42 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
84.9%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Xavier Washington for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:1685% → 84%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 13 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for no gain to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
85.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+7
85.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
85.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Keith Watkins II) to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
85.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
85.8%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
85.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
84.3%
Patrick Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0416% → 15%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
83.9%
Justin Jackson run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
82.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 3 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-7
82.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Kendal Vickers and Corey Vereen for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-9
84.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Jalen Reeves-Maybin for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 23
OWN 37
0
85.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 30 yds, downed at the Tenn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 5:3985% → 96%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
85.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-5
86.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Coleman Thomas) to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
85.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+26
84.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 26 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
86.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
86.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+9
86.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 9 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
87.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
87.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
87.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
87.1%
Alvin Kamara run for no gain to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
86.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
86.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
87.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Nwest 3Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.5%
Jalen Hurd 3 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:366% → 6%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.3%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
94.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.1%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Brian Randolph return for no gain to the Tenn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5296% → 96%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
95.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
95.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
95.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
95.9%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
95.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
95.5%
Trevor Daniel punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:135% → 5%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.9%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
95.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 0:28
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
95.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
95.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2896% → 100%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
96.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
96.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+24
96.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 24 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
97.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 7 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
97.3%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
97.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 11 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
97.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
97.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+18
99.5%
Joshua Dobbs 18 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:431% → 1%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
99.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 10 yds, downed at the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.6%
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
99.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Ralph David Abernathy IVSimilar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-9
99.6%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
99.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 34 yds, downed at the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24INT
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
99.6%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Solomon Vault for 9 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+19
99.5%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Austin Carr for 19 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.5%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Solomon Vault for 7 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+20
99.6%
Zack Oliver pass intercepted Emmanuel Moseley return for 20 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
99.7%
John Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
99.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+10
99.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Alex Ellis for 10 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+4
99.7%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
99.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 18 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.7%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Nwest 1Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
John Kelly run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26INT TD
16 plays · 62 yds · 4:030% → 0%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Corey Acker run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 4 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Corey Acker run for 5 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Auston Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-1
99.9%
Auston Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Stephen BuckleySimilar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Pierre Youngblood-Ary for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
50
+18
99.9%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Pierre Youngblood-Ary for 18 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Andrew ScanlanSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+19
99.9%
Corey Acker run for 19 yds to the Tenn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Pierre Youngblood-ArySimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+100
100.0%
Evan Berry 100 Yd Interception Return (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
50
+2
100.0%
Chad Hanaoka run for 2 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:40
Jalen Hurd 3 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)
+8
TD · Q2 2:18
Alvin Kamara 11 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)
+7.8
TD · Q2 5:40
Justin Jackson 5 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell PAT failed)
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com