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MSU

Michigan State 0 at Alabama 38

ALA
2015 · Postseason · Dec 31, 2015 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:50 · Jake Coker run for 2 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense+1.1Pregame prior+18.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Blowout margin−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:36: Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +6.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:23: Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 18 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST down — MSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 26 — ALA win probability +3.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:36: Calvin Ridley 6 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +8.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:24: Cyrus Jones 57 Yd Punt Return (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 12:41MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:25ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:15MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:58ALA 4th & 22 at ALA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:31MSU 4th & 20 at ALA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:50ALA 4th & 1 at MSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−1.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:48ALA 4th & 8 at MSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    69.7%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:14MSU 4th & 15 at ALA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:04MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:25ALA 4th & 16 at MSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:34MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:37ALA 4th & 20 at ALA 41, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−2.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:24MSU 4th & 22 at MSU 3, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−3.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:29MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:19MSU 4th & 4 at ALA 28, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:53ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 38, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:30MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 23, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:29MSU 4th & 2 at ALA 24, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:16ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 44, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:51MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 23, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 5:36ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:36ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:24ALA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:20ALA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:52ALA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1325% → 25%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
75.1%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Burbridge, Aaron, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Humphrey, Marlon) 14 yards to the MICHIGANST39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
75.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
74.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
74.6%
Connor Cook run for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
74.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0575% → 74%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
74.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
74.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
74.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin Ridley, broken up by Lawrence ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
74.5%
ArDarius Stewart run for 7 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-1
74.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
74.0%
JK Scott punt for 56 yds, downed at the MchSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0526% → 26%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+14
74.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 14 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
73.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 3 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-3
73.8%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
73.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 10
OWN 19
-2
73.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 50 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0874% → 72%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
73.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+6
73.8%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
73.8%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-13
73.7%
Jake Coker sacked by Arjen Colquhoun for a loss of 13 yards to the Alab 30 Jake Coker fumbled, forced by Arjen Colquhoun, recovered by AlabSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 22
OWN 30
0
72.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Kenyan DrakeSimilar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
72.4%
JK Scott punt for 38 yds, downed at the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1727% → 28%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.6%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
72.6%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+28
72.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Felton Davis III for 28 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
71.4%
Aaron Burbridge run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
71.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-7
71.9%
Connor Cook sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 20
OPP 48
0
71.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds, downed at the Alab 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
15 plays · 55 yds · 6:3072% → 71%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
72.1%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+1
71.9%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 8Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+7
71.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 7 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
71.8%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+12
71.7%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 12 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
71.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 9 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+6
72.6%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
72.7%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 6
50
+3
72.7%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
72.4%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
71.7%
Jake Coker run for 2 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
72.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin Ridley, broken up by Jermaine EdmondsonSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
72.5%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+1
71.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 1 yd to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
70.5%
JK Scott punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:2531% → 32%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.4%
Delton Williams run for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
68.9%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Shelton, R.J., PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Fitzpatrick, Minkah) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
68.2%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
67.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+17
68.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Paul Lang for 17 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
66.6%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Williams, Delton, PENALTY MICHIGANST illegal shift 5 yards to the ALABAMA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
67.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 15
OPP 47
0
67.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 15
OPP 47
0
68.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
68.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2870% → 79%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
70.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 15 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
70.1%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+4
69.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 4 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+11
69.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 11 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+50
71.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 50 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.1%
Henry, Derrick rush for no gain to the MICHIGANST1, PENALTY MICHIGANST substitution infraction 0 yards to the MICHIGANST1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.9%
Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1724% → 22%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.0%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
75.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-4
76.5%
Connor Cook sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+5
77.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 5 yds to the Alab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:3178% → 79%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
77.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 14 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
78.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Derrick Henry) to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+4
77.7%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-5
77.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Cam Robinson) to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+41
77.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 41 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
79.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
79.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 11
OPP 25
-5
78.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+47
78.9%
Adam Griffith 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11INT
11 plays · 63 yds · 1:1320% → 22%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
79.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 3 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+12
79.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 12 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-8
79.4%
Connor Cook sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+26
82.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 26 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
78.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 18 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+21
78.1%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Cyrus Jones return for 21 yds to the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
81.7%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1481% → 92%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
80.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 26 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
82.0%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 11
50
+5
81.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+15
81.6%
Coker, Jake pass incomplete to Stewart, ArDarius, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul (Knox, Damon) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
83.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
83.1%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
82.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 4 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
83.6%
Jake Coker run for 3 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Malik McDowell) to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
83.7%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.0%
Calvin Ridley 6 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5410% → 9%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.0%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
90.3%
Connor Cook run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
90.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 1 yd to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+2
91.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 2 yds to the Alab 27 Cyrus Jones fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:5093% → 93%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
92.7%
Derrick Henry run for 14 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
93.2%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-2
93.2%
Jake Coker sacked by Demetrius Cooper for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+12
93.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 12 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
93.6%
Henry, Derrick rush for 13 yards to the MICHIGANST36, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal block (Jackson, Dominick) 15 yards to the ALABAMA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 25
OWN 36
0
93.3%
Jake Coker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 25
OWN 36
-6
93.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to Derrick Henry for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 31
OWN 30
+11
93.1%
Derrick Henry run for 11 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 20
OWN 41
+9
93.0%
JK Scott punt for 53 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 9 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT TD
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:137% → 2%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
93.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Donavon Clark) to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+3
93.2%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 12
OWN 13
0
93.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr., broken up by Minkah FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 12
OWN 13
-10
93.6%
Connor Cook sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 3 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Connor Cook) to the MchSt 3Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 22
OWN 3
+57
97.6%
Cyrus Jones 57 Yd Punt Return (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:393% → 2%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
97.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 1 yd to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
97.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge, broken up by Shaun Dion HamiltonSimilar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
97.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge, broken up by Reuben FosterSimilar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+18
97.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 18 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
50
+50
99.7%
Calvin Ridley 50 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:540% → 0%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
99.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 7 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.8%
Aaron Burbridge run for 11 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr., broken up by Marlon HumphreySimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+18
99.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 18 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 5 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+1
99.8%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 4
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr., broken up by Reggie RaglandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
99.8%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+6
99.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+4
99.8%
Jake Coker run for 4 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
JK Scott punt for 53 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 5 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.9%
Connor Cook run for 2 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+7
99.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 7 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+58
99.9%
Kenyan Drake run for 58 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Kenyan Drake run for no gain to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Derrick Henry 11 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:170% → 0%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Damion Terry run for 14 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
99.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 4 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ryan Anderson) to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Madre London for 10 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
99.9%
Madre London run for 8 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Madre London run for no gain to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Aaron Burbridge run for no gain to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 2
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Trevon Pendleton, broken up by Bradley SylveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
99.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
100.0%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-1
100.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Cooper Bateman pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+2
100.0%
JK Scott punt for 38 yds , R.J. Shelton returns for 2 yds to the MchSt 20 R.J. Shelton fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Delton WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
100.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 3 yds Aaron Burbridge fumbled, forced by Maurice Smith, recovered by MchStSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to DeAnthony ArnettSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+21
100.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to DeAnthony Arnett for 21 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Dillon Lee return for no gain to the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:36
Calvin Ridley 6 Yd pass from Jake Coker (Adam Griffith Kick)
+8.3
TD · Q2 5:36
Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)
+6.7
TD · Q3 3:24
Cyrus Jones 57 Yd Punt Return (Adam Griffith Kick)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com