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HOU

Houston 38 at Florida State 24

FSU
2015 · Postseason · Dec 31, 2015 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:50 · Roberto Aguayo 52 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Home team on offense+0.4Pregame prior+18.6Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:30: Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +15.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:18: Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +14.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:12: Travis Rudolph 65 Yd pass from Sean Maguire (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +16.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:08: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 17 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +11.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:55: Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 14 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +22.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:32FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50FSU 4th & 5 at HOU 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:37FSU 4th & 3 at HOU 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.7%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−5.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:03FSU 4th & 22 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:32HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 19, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:31FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:29HOU 4th & 16 at HOU 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:18FSU 4th & 19 at FSU 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−3.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:17HOU 4th & 17 at HOU 19, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−3.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:51FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 35, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:47HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 24, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−2.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:01HOU 4th & 2 at FSU 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−2.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−3.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:42HOU 4th & 9 at FSU 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:33HOU 4th & 6 at FSU 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:08FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 17, down 11
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:50HOU 4th & 9 at FSU 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−7.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:25FSU 4th & 10 at HOU 40, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%
    34% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:17HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:11HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:30HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:18FSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:12FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:08HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.9
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:55FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:59HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1371% → 71%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
71.0%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+4
71.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
70.9%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+2
70.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 55 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 2 yds to the Houst 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:4629% → 30%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
70.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
70.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 11
-5
70.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Ben Dew) to the Houst 6Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+14
70.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 5, FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Marquez White) to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
70.6%
Demarcus Ayers run for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+13
70.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 13 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
70.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
70.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
70.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 3 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
70.0%
Logan Piper punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3MISSED FG
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:4070% → 70%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+51
70.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 51 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
70.7%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
70.6%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
70.4%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+52
70.1%
Roberto Aguayo 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 2:3331% → 35%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
69.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Colton Freeman) to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+10
69.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 10 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
69.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+14
69.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
68.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+11
68.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 11 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
68.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
68.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+6
68.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
68.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 7 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
68.0%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
65.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:3366% → 67%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+33
65.8%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 33 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
66.3%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
65.9%
Jesus Wilson run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+13
65.9%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Freddie Stevenson for 13 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
66.2%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+31
65.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 31 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
65.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
65.5%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
64.7%
J.J. Cosentino pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 5 yds to the Houst 3Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
66.6%
Roberto Aguayo 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2934% → 35%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
65.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
65.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+7
65.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 7 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
64.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Houst 42Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
64.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
64.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted DeMarcus Walker return for no gain to the Houst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:5267% → 64%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
67.0%
J.J. Cosentino sacked by Matthew Adams for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 19
OPP 47
-3
65.8%
J.J. Cosentino sacked by Tyus Bowser and Jerard Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 22
50
0
64.5%
J.J. Cosentino pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 22
50
0
63.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2336% → 35%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
64.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 14Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+2
64.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+3
64.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
64.6%
Logan Piper punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5866% → 63%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
65.9%
J.J. Cosentino pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-3
65.6%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
63.1%
J.J. Cosentino pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
62.6%
Cason Beatty punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5537% → 36%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
62.9%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to Dunbar, Steven, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (White, Marquez) 15 yards to the HOUSTON35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
62.0%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Josh Sweat for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
62.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
63.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
63.8%
Logan Piper punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:0763% → 60%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
62.9%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-9
62.3%
Sean Maguire sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 19
OWN 21
0
60.1%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 19
OWN 21
+8
59.6%
Cason Beatty punt for 52 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 8 yds to the Houst 35 HOUSTON Penalty, Illegal Block (Donald Gage) to the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5940% → 52%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
59.2%
Demarcus Ayers run for 9 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
58.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
57.5%
Brandon Wilson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+20
56.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Brandon Wilson for 20 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
48.3%
Demarcus Ayers pass complete to Chance Allen for 20 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3349% → 48%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
48.9%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+1
48.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 17 Dalvin Cook fumbled, forced by Steven Taylor, recovered by Houst Trevon StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4553% → 69%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
47.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Donald Gage for 2 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+9
46.8%
Demarcus Ayers run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
31.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1038% → 37%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.5%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
37.2%
Sean Maguire pass intercepted William Jackson III return for no gain to the Houst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:4368% → 68%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
32.0%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 17
OWN 19
0
31.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Donald GageSimilar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 17
OWN 19
0
31.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
31.9%
Logan Piper punt for 55 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for no gain to the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1735% → 34%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
35.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
34.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
33.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
34.1%
Cason Beatty punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18END OF HALF
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:4366% → 74%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
33.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
32.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+10
31.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
30.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 4 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+11
28.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 11 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
26.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
26.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+18
26.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 18 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0373% → 72%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
27.1%
Demarcus Ayers run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
26.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+5
27.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+6
27.8%
Logan Piper punt for 41 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 6 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:2231% → 42%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
30.8%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
30.1%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+14
28.8%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 14 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
29.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
28.7%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 4 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+11
28.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 11 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
28.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+26
27.4%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 26 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:0962% → 66%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.7%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
36.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 15 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
33.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+14
33.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 14 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
33.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+1
32.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+6
32.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 2
OPP 32
-6
33.6%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Derwin James for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3536% → 36%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
35.5%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 3 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
35.5%
Sean Maguire pass intercepted Trevon Stewart return for no gain to the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3370% → 69%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
30.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 12
50
0
30.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 12
50
+3
30.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
31.1%
Logan Piper punt for 36 yds, downed at the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4030% → 29%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
30.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 1
OWN 20
0
30.7%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
28.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
29.1%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
28.9%
Sean Maguire pass intercepted Trevon Stewart return for no gain to the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0773% → 73%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
26.8%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
26.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Donald Gage for 6 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
26.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
27.5%
Logan Piper punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1627% → 23%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
27.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
26.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q3 0:16
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
24.3%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 3
OWN 17
-2
23.1%
Cason Beatty punt for 52 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 2:1076% → 87%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
24.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
24.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 11 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
22.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 5 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
22.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+15
23.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
21.4%
Demarcus Ayers pass incomplete to Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
21.4%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to Dunbar, Steven, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Brutus, Lamarcus) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
19.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
18.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
19.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
12.7%
Ty Cummings 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3316% → 33%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
16.3%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 25 lat. to Kermit Whitfield for 7 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
16.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
32.9%
Travis Rudolph 65 Yd pass from Sean Maguire (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 29TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5272% → 95%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
26.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for no gain to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
25.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 19 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
22.4%
Brandon Wilson run for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+11
21.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Brandon Wilson for 11 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
19.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-4
19.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 35 HOUSTON Penalty, Illegal Block (Tyler McCloskey) to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+6
19.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 6 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+20
19.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 20 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
17.1%
Brandon Wilson run for no gain to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
17.0%
Demarcus Ayers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+17
5.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 17 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 30TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:007% → 29%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
6.5%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 21 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
7.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 21 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
8.3%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+19
6.7%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 19 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
29.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 14 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 31TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:4288% → 98%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
11.6%
Demarcus Ayers run for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
11.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+7
11.6%
Kyle Postma run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
9.3%
Kyle Postma run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
8.2%
Brandon Wilson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+29
8.7%
Kyle Postma run for 29 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 32INT
12 plays · 51 yds · 1:302% → 3%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
2.4%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+12
2.3%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 12 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
2.4%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 5 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
2.4%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+9
2.3%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 9 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.4%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
2.3%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 25 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
2.5%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
2.6%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
2.5%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Jacques PatrickSimilar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+20
2.5%
Sean Maguire pass intercepted William Jackson III return for 20 yds to the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:55
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 14 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+22.4
TD · Q4 11:12
Travis Rudolph 65 Yd pass from Sean Maguire (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
+16.8
TD · Q2 4:30
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
-15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com