Try the model
USC

USC 21 at Wisconsin 23

WIS
2015 · National Funding Holiday Bowl · Dec 30, 2015 · Qualcomm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:17: Justin Davis 1 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick) — USC win probability +8.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:49: Austin Traylor 4 Yd pass from Joel Stave (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +14.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:34: Justin Davis 4 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick) — USC win probability +21.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:19: Darreus Rogers 7 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick) — USC win probability +23.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:27: Rafael Gaglianone 29 Yd Field Goal — WIS win probability +26.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 9USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:55WIS 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:41USC 4th & 3 at USC 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:30WIS 4th & 2 at USC 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:14USC 4th & 15 at USC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:30WIS 4th & 8 at USC 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:15USC 4th & 6 at USC 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:45USC 4th & 4 at WIS 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:17USC 4th & 1 at WIS 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−9.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:26WIS 4th & 10 at USC 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:04USC 4th & 13 at USC 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:27WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 19, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:27WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−2.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:51WIS 4th & 9 at USC 41, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:34USC 4th & 3 at USC 17, up 1
    Close callPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:27WIS 4th & 3 at USC 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−14.0
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−30.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:39WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 48, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−4.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:03USC 4th & 10 at midfield, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 8:56WIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:17USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:49WIS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:34USC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:19USC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:5536% → 38%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
36.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+4
36.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+8
36.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 8 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
37.2%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
37.7%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
37.9%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 1
50
0
37.9%
Drew Meyer punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5962% → 62%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
38.0%
Darreus Rogers run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+14
38.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 14 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
38.1%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
37.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
37.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
38.3%
Kris Albarado punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:0639% → 40%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
38.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
38.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 19Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+15
38.5%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Peavy, Jazz, PENALTY USC pass interference (Marshall, Iman) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
39.0%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
39.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 6 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
39.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 5 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
40.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 1 yd to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
40.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Dare OgunbowaleSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+7
40.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 7 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
40.4%
Drew Meyer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:0160% → 59%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
39.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 20 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
39.7%
Adoree' Jackson run for 1 yd to the USC 34Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-2
40.0%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 32Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 11
OWN 32
-4
40.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 28Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
41.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 32 yds, downed at the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:3042% → 44%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
42.0%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+19
42.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 19 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
43.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
44.0%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+21
43.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 21 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
44.3%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
44.7%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
44.1%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
44.1%
Rafael Gaglianone 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:5556% → 55%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
43.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 12 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
42.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 6 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
42.6%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-2
42.9%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 47Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+27
44.6%
Kris Albarado punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the WISCONSIN 11 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:4445% → 56%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
44.6%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Wisc 26Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
44.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 11 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
45.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 12 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
47.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 19 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+26
48.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 26 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.5%
Corey Clement 6 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
15 plays · 55 yds · 3:3347% → 51%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
53.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 5
50
+8
52.2%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
52.7%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
53.3%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (Darius Hillary) to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
52.4%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
53.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+33
57.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 33 yds to the Wisc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
54.8%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-10
53.9%
Davis, Justin rush for 2 yards to the WISCONSIN0, PENALTY USC holding (Banner, Zach) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
55.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tyler Petite for 1 yd to the Wisc 11Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
56.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 10 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.5%
Justin Davis 1 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 3:5451% → 60%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
50.6%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+14
50.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 14 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
51.5%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+19
53.3%
Derek Watt run for 19 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
54.6%
Joel Stave run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+8
54.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 8 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
56.0%
Corey Clement run for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+12
56.2%
Corey Clement run for 12 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
56.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
56.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
54.8%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
60.1%
Rafael Gaglianone 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
61.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3544% → 41%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
55.6%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 24Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
56.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 13
OWN 24
0
57.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
58.6%
Kris Albarado punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 6:0161% → 81%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
60.5%
Corey Clement run for 8 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
62.6%
Derek Watt run for 5 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
62.5%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+11
62.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 11 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
63.8%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
64.5%
Derek Watt run for 2 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+17
63.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 17 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
65.5%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
66.0%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the USC 13Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+10
65.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 10 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
66.9%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 4Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.0%
Austin Traylor 4 Yd pass from Joel Stave (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:4623% → 46%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+39
76.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 39 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
74.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Jahleel Pinner for no gain to the Wisc 16Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
74.8%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+6
77.0%
Jalen Greene run for 6 yds to the Wisc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.2%
Justin Davis 4 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+1
53.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jack Cichy) to the Wisc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5865% → 63%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
64.9%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
64.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for no gain to the Wisc 19Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
64.0%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
62.8%
Drew Meyer punt for 31 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -28 yds · 1:3142% → 34%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
50
-9
57.9%
Cody Kessler sacked by Jack Cichy for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 41Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 19
OWN 41
-5
62.2%
USC Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Khaliel Rodgers) to the USC 36Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 24
OWN 36
-7
62.8%
Cody Kessler sacked by Jack Cichy for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 31
OWN 29
-7
65.2%
Cody Kessler sacked by Jack Cichy for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 22Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 38
OWN 22
0
66.3%
Kris Albarado punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5571% → 71%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
71.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+10
71.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 10 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-4
73.4%
Joel Stave run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 41Similar
Q3 0:27
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+1
70.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 42 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 1 yd to the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:4135% → 62%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
64.7%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 17Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+18
65.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 18 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
64.1%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
61.5%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 44Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
61.8%
Cody Kessler run for 2 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
62.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tyler Petite for 25 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
58.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
58.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+10
63.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 10 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
61.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
61.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 3 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
37.8%
Darreus Rogers 7 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:0446% → 45%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
46.0%
Tanner McEvoy run for 9 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+19
49.5%
Tanner McEvoy run for 19 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
51.6%
Derek Watt run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
50
-1
52.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+9
49.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 9 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
53.2%
Tanner McEvoy run for 1 yd to the USC 41Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
52.9%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
51.0%
Bart Houston pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
45.3%
Drew Meyer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5961% → 57%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
39.5%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 6Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 14
OWN 6
0
40.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 14
OWN 6
-3
41.9%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-3 Yards) to the USC 3Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 17
OWN 3
+14
42.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 14 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
42.7%
Kris Albarado punt for 36 yds, downed at the Wisc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:5852% → 78%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
52.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 48Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+17
52.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 17 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
55.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 17 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
55.9%
Derek Watt run for 2 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-4
55.0%
Tanner McEvoy run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 20Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+9
51.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 9 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
78.0%
Rafael Gaglianone 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:2633% → 34%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.5%
Cody Kessler run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
66.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
65.9%
Cody Kessler pass intercepted Sojourn Shelton return for no gain to the USC 46 WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Wisc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:5984% → 90%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
83.8%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
84.3%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
88.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+62
90.3%
Drew Meyer punt for 52 yds for a touchback USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Don Hill)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:3215% → 15%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
85.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 16 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
84.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 13 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.1%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
83.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
50
0
80.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
50
0
80.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 10
50
0
82.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 10
50
0
85.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
-2
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 2:27
Rafael Gaglianone 29 Yd Field Goal
+26.1
TD · Q4 10:19
Darreus Rogers 7 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)
-23.6
TD · Q3 5:34
Justin Davis 4 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)
-21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com