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TA&M

Texas A&M 21 at Louisville 27

LOU
2015 · Postseason · Dec 30, 2015 · Nissan Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:01 · Joshua Appleby punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense+20.0Pregame prior−2.2Garbage-time factor+10.7Score differential+10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:25: Tra Carson 9 Yd Run (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +6.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 50%).
  2. TD · Q1 1:14: Lamar Jackson 61 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +8.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:51: Ricky Seals-Jones 4 Yd pass from Jake Hubenak (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +13.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:01: Keith Towbridge 17 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +17.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:54: Christian Kirk 29 Yd pass from Jake Hubenak (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +23.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:47TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:37LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:41TA&M 4th & 15 at TA&M 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:42TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:57LOU 4th & 7 at TA&M 32, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.7%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:06TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:46LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 16, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:16TA&M 4th & 5 at LOU 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:45LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 41, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:56LOU 4th & 6 at TA&M 33, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:27TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:48LOU 4th & 2 at TA&M 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−2.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:00LOU 4th & 7 at TA&M 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:54TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 34, down 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:01LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 25, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:10TA&M 4th & 17 at LOU 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−5.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:05LOU 4th & 12 at TA&M 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:52LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:56LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:22LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:25TA&M Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:14LOU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:51TA&M Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:01LOU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:54TA&M Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:0260% → 59%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
40.4%
Hubenak, Jake pass incomplete to Ratley, Damion, PENALTY LOUISVILLE personal foul (Burgess, James) 15 yards to the TEXASAM40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
40.5%
Jake Hubenak run for 6 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
40.5%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
40.6%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
40.7%
Drew Kaser punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4441% → 43%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
40.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+12
41.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+56
41.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 56 yds to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
41.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the TexAM 6Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
42.9%
Lamar Jackson 6 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:1357% → 57%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
42.6%
Kwame Etwi run for 2 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+9
42.8%
Christian Kirk run for 9 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
42.8%
Kwame Etwi run for 7 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
42.9%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
43.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Josh Reynolds, broken up by Stacy ThomasSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
43.4%
Drew Kaser punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:4144% → 45%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
43.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 16 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
44.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
45.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
45.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
44.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
44.5%
Joshua Appleby punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:4755% → 53%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
44.9%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
45.3%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 3
OWN 25
-12
45.9%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 12 yards to the TexAM 13Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 15
OWN 13
+32
46.8%
Drew Kaser punt for 40 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 32 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:0447% → 53%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
47.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the TexAM 20Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+15
47.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
48.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the TexAM 2Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.9%
Micky Crum 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:4250% → 55%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
50.1%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
50.2%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian Kirk, broken up by Chucky WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+7
50.5%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 7 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
50.6%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 39Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+33
53.1%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 33 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
51.7%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+8
52.2%
Jake Hubenak run for 8 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
51.5%
Hubenak, Jake pass incomplete to Seals-Jones, Ricky, PENALTY LOUISVILLE roughing passer (Harvey-Clemons, Josh) 8 yards to the LOUISVILLE9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q1 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
45.2%
Tra Carson 9 Yd Run (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:0148% → 57%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
48.3%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete to Staples, Jamari (Watts, Armani), PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Hall, Daeshon) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
48.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 7 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
49.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
57.3%
Lamar Jackson 61 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
56.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:2345% → 44%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.6%
James White run for 1 yd to the TexAM 26Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
55.1%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
55.1%
James White run for 2 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
55.3%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
55.3%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian Kirk, broken up by Chucky WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+17
55.9%
Drew Kaser punt for 49 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 17 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10MISSED FG
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3359% → 61%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+36
59.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 36 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
60.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-3
61.3%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
61.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
60.8%
John Wallace 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4442% → 41%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
57.7%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
58.3%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
59.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Josh Reynolds, broken up by Shaq WigginsSimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
59.4%
Drew Kaser punt for 53 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for no gain to the Lvile 33 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the Lvile 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1262% → 63%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
61.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-1
62.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 9Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+7
62.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 7 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
63.0%
Joshua Appleby punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2439% → 35%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
61.2%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
61.8%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 7 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+14
61.2%
Jake Hubenak run for 14 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.4%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
61.8%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+1
63.9%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
64.7%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2369% → 69%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
68.9%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-1
69.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
69.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to L.J. ScottSimilar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
68.6%
Joshua Appleby punt for 56 yds, downed at the TexAM 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
11 plays · 97 yds · 3:4432% → 46%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+14
68.5%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 14 yds to the TexAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
67.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Avery Gennesy) to the TexAM 12Similar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 15
OWN 12
-3
68.3%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 9Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+17
69.6%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 17 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 1
OWN 26
-5
68.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Avery Gennesy) to the TexAM 21Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-5
69.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Avery Gennesy) to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+20
70.1%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 20 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
69.4%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 5 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+55
69.0%
Tra Carson run for 55 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.9%
James White run for no gain to the Lvile 4Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.5%
Ricky Seals-Jones 4 Yd pass from Jake Hubenak (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:4261% → 60%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
60.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 28 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
63.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 15 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
63.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
63.3%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the TexAM 37Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+9
61.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 1
OPP 28
-5
60.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Geron Christian) to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
60.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2441% → 40%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
59.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-9
59.6%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Pio Vatuvei for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 19
OWN 24
+15
61.0%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 15 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
59.7%
Drew Kaser punt for 31 yds, downed at the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18END OF HALF
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:2060% → 60%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
59.9%
Jackson, Lamar pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the LOUISVILLE27 (Garrett, Myles;George, Claude), PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Christian, Geron) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 20
OWN 20
0
59.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+19
59.3%
L.J. Scott run for 19 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+36
60.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 36 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0361% → 62%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
60.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 27 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
63.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-10
64.0%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+15
61.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 15 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
62.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20FUMBLE
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:2943% → 39%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
57.3%
James White run for 2 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
57.6%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Edward Pope for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
50
+2
56.0%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
56.4%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 6 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+2
56.3%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 2 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
56.6%
Hubenak, Jake pass complete to Seals-Jones, Ricky for 25 yards to the LOUISVILLE15, PENALTY TEXASAM personal foul (Gennesy, Avery) 15 yards to the TEXASAM45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 25
OWN 45
+3
59.8%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 22
OWN 48
+5
60.4%
Jake Hubenak run for 5 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 17
OPP 47
-4
61.2%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Josh Harvey-Clemons for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 49 Jake Hubenak fumbled, forced by Josh Harvey-Clemons, recovered by Lvile James Hearns , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0267% → 66%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
67.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
67.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+11
66.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-5
67.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 32Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
67.3%
L.J. Scott run for no gain to the TexAM 32Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
65.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:5939% → 40%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
61.5%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Edward Pope for 7 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
59.3%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+4
59.8%
Jake Hubenak run for 4 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
60.2%
Jake Hubenak pass intercepted Josh Harvey-Clemons return for no gain to the Lvile 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:4866% → 87%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
66.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
65.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+37
66.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 37 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
70.9%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 33Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+5
69.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (Daylon Mack) to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
71.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+11
70.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 11 yds to the TexAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
87.4%
Keith Towbridge 17 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5617% → 15%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.3%
James White run for 2 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
83.8%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Tra Carson for 7 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
83.2%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+52
85.1%
Drew Kaser punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOUISVILLE 24 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Charles Standberry) to the Lvile 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4088% → 89%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
87.7%
Traveon Samuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (De'Vante Harris) to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
90.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-6
90.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 25 Brandon Radcliff fumbled, forced by Daylon Mack, recovered by Lvile Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Richard MooreSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Joshua Appleby punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26MISSED FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:4015% → 11%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
85.5%
Jake Hubenak run for 7 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
85.4%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
50
+36
86.7%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 36 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-9
85.4%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 19
OPP 23
+2
86.4%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 17
OPP 21
0
88.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Edward PopeSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 17
OPP 21
+39
89.5%
Taylor Bertolet 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:5892% → 94%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
92.3%
L.J. Scott run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
92.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
93.0%
L.J. Scott run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
93.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+23
93.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 23 yds to the TexAM 43 Lamar Jackson fumbled, forced by Armani Watts, recovered by LvileSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
94.0%
L.J. Scott run for 4 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-5
94.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Aaron Epps) to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
94.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon Samuel, broken up by Shaan WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-1
94.3%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
94.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay of Game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
94.2%
Joshua Appleby punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 28TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:048% → 31%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+22
92.5%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 22 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
91.5%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 7 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
91.7%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
92.2%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Edward Pope for 6 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
91.8%
Tra Carson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
92.3%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+13
92.3%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 13 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
68.9%
Christian Kirk 29 Yd pass from Jake Hubenak (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4687% → 88%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
86.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+54
88.4%
Joshua Appleby punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the LOUISVILLE 31 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Claude George) to the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 30DOWNS
14 plays · 53 yds · 2:0116% → 19%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
84.3%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 11 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Josh Reynolds, broken up by Jaire AlexanderSimilar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
84.4%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 4 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+8
84.1%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 8 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.9%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Tra CarsonSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
82.8%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 5 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+10
81.9%
Hubenak, Jake pass incomplete to Seals-Jones, Ricky, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Harvey-Clemons, Josh) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
80.4%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
80.9%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Josh Reynolds, broken up by Chucky WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
81.8%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-Jones, broken up by Devonte FieldsSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 10
OPP 41
+15
84.0%
Hubenak, Jake pass incomplete to Kirk, Christian, PENALTY LOUISVILLE personal foul (Hearns, James) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
76.7%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 2 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
76.7%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
80.8%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian Kirk, broken up by Devonte FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:4795% → 96%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
95.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
95.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:54
Christian Kirk 29 Yd pass from Jake Hubenak (Taylor Bertolet Kick)
-23.5
TD · Q3 3:01
Keith Towbridge 17 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick)
+17.1
TD · Q2 1:51
Ricky Seals-Jones 4 Yd pass from Jake Hubenak (Taylor Bertolet Kick)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com