Try the model
AUB

Auburn 31 at Memphis 10

MEM
2015 · Postseason · Dec 30, 2015 · Legion Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:14 · Kevin Phillips punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Home team on offense−4.0Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−1.7Pregame prior−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:06: Reggis Ball 53 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +11.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:45: Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 6 — AUB win probability +5.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:12: Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Jason Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +21.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:57: Jeremy Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +13.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:57: Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:40AUB 4th & 4 at MEM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35AUB 4th & 3 at MEM 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:22MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:57MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:48AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 30, up 10
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:10MEM 4th & 2 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.1%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:03MEM 4th & 11 at AUB 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:14AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:55MEM 4th & 5 at AUB 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:06AUB 4th & 2 at MEM 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−1.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:33MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:37AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 39, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:47MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 19, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:33AUB 4th & 1 at MEM 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−4.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−17.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:33MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:54MEM 4th & 23 at MEM 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−3.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:13MEM 4th & 16 at AUB 22, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:58AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:06MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:12AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:57AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:57AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 6:1554% → 54%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
45.6%
Roc Thomas run for 15 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
45.7%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
45.8%
Peyton Barber run for 7 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
45.8%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
45.8%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+1
45.9%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+3
46.1%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 3 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+37
46.4%
Kevin Phillips pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 37 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
45.9%
Peyton Barber run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 5Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
46.0%
Peyton Barber run for 2 yds to the Memph 3Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
46.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Memph 3Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
46.1%
Daniel Carlson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:5846% → 46%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
46.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 1 yd to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
46.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
46.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 10 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-6
46.6%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Carl Lawson for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+7
46.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+6
46.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 39 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 6 yds to the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:1253% → 59%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
46.6%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 12 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
46.1%
Jovon Robinson run for 10 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
45.9%
Jovon Robinson run for no gain to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
46.0%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+13
46.4%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 13 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
45.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+3
45.5%
Jovon Robinson run for 3 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
45.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Memph 18Similar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+6
45.4%
Jovon Robinson run for 6 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
45.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
41.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5341% → 40%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
41.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 1 yd to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
40.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
40.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 48 yds , Marcus Davis returns for no gain to the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0258% → 58%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
41.7%
Jovon Robinson run for 5 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
41.3%
Peyton Barber run for 4 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
41.3%
Peyton Barber run for no gain to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
42.1%
Kevin Phillips punt for 43 yds for a 1ST down , Roderick Proctor returns for no gain to the Memph 30 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Stephen Roberts) to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3842% → 41%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
41.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-2
41.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+8
41.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 2
50
0
41.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
50
+11
40.2%
Jason Smith pass intercepted Reggis Ball return for 11 yds to the Memph 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:3543% → 43%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
43.0%
Mose Frazier run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 38Similar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
40.8%
Mose Frazier run for 4 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 14
OPP 38
-1
41.2%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+1
41.0%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+26
40.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
42.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 37Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+1
40.9%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Aub 36Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
40.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+53
43.1%
Jake Elliott 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4659% → 58%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.5%
Ricardo Louis run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.5%
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
41.8%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
42.4%
Kevin Phillips punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 3:1444% → 43%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
44.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-10
44.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mose Frazier) to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 20
OWN 38
0
42.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 20
OWN 38
-5
42.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 25
OWN 33
+16
41.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 34 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Johnathan Ford) to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
43.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
42.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 3 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+28
43.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 28 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
45.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
45.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+5
43.6%
Paxton Lynch run for 5 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+34
42.6%
Jake Elliott 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Blake CountessSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11INT TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:2959% → 52%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
40.7%
Jovon Robinson run for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+20
39.1%
Jovon Robinson run for 20 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
37.7%
Jovon Robinson run for 1 yd to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+6
37.6%
Jovon Robinson run for 6 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+1
37.2%
Jovon Robinson run for 1 yd to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+53
48.3%
Reggis Ball 53 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:4250% → 52%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
49.8%
Jeff Holland run for 7 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+8
48.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
47.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-4
48.4%
Sean White pass intercepted Dontrell Nelson return for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0754% → 53%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
53.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 3 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-10
53.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 17
OWN 24
+4
52.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+8
52.0%
Jarvis Cooper run for 8 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+4
52.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 46 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 4 yds to the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
49.9%
Jovon Robinson run for 2 yds to the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15INT
14 plays · 56 yds · 2:5553% → 56%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
52.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+16
55.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 16 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
56.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Doroland DorceusSimilar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
55.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
55.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
56.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
56.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
55.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 11 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
57.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+10
56.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 10 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
57.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
57.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+6
55.9%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Tray Matthews return for 6 yds to the Aub 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 3:0850% → 50%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
50.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 6Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
50.4%
Sean White pass complete to Peyton Barber for 3 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+21
51.7%
Sean White pass complete to Melvin Ray for 21 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
49.2%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
48.0%
Peyton Barber run for 3 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
47.4%
Sean White run for 1 yd to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
49.7%
Kevin Phillips punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Mose Frazier at the Memph 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4153% → 51%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
53.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 3 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 14
-1
53.1%
Jamarius Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 13Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+6
51.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 2
OWN 19
+27
50.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 52 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 27 yds to the Memph 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:0854% → 74%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
46.1%
Jovon Robinson run for 1 yd to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+5
46.2%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 5 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+16
46.6%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 16 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
44.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
43.9%
Jovon Robinson run for 6 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
45.5%
Jovon Robinson run for no gain to the Memph 13Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
47.7%
Jovon Robinson run for 2 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
26.0%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Jason Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3533% → 30%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.0%
Mose Frazier run for 3 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
33.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
31.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
30.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 48 yds , Marcus Davis returns for no gain to the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:3071% → 89%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
29.3%
Jeremy Johnson run for 17 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.8%
Sean White pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
27.1%
Roc Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+30
28.2%
Sean White pass complete to Melvin Ray for 30 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
25.3%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
25.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (4 Yards) to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+8
25.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 8 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
24.9%
Jovon Robinson run for 6 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+7
24.0%
Jovon Robinson run for 7 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.0%
Jeremy Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:0315% → 14%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
14.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
14.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
14.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-8
13.7%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 12Similar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+56
13.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 50 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 56 yds to the Memph 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:4391% → 98%
Q4 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
9.1%
Jovon Robinson run for 2 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.4%
Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23DOWNS
16 plays · 55 yds · 6:293% → 2%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
3.2%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+10
3.2%
Sam Craft run for 10 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
3.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
3.0%
Sam Craft run for 6 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+10
2.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 10 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
3.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 7 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
3.1%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+11
3.1%
Jarvis Cooper run for 11 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
3.1%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-1
3.0%
Mose Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+10
2.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 10 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
2.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
2.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-6
2.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 16
OPP 22
0
1.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 53 yds · 6:0099% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
1.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+14
1.0%
Peyton Barber run for 14 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.9%
Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
0.9%
Jovon Robinson run for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
0.7%
Jeremy Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
0.7%
Jovon Robinson run for 10 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
0.5%
Roc Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+15
0.5%
Roc Thomas run for 15 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
0.4%
Roc Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:12
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Jason Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
-21.6
TD · Q4 14:57
Jeremy Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
-13
TD · Q2 3:06
Reggis Ball 53 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com