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LSU

LSU 56 at Texas Tech 27

TTU
2015 · AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl · Dec 29, 2015 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:03 · Taylor Symmank punt for 58 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 13 yds to the LSU 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense−23.4Pregame prior−6.3Score differential−10.4Garbage-time factor−6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:38: Jakeem Grant 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +7.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:28: Reginald Davis 31 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +13.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 8:17: Leonard Fournette 43 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick) — LSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:07: Leonard Fournette 4 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick) — LSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:20: Jakeem Grant 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +10.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 13:45TTU 4th & 15 at TTU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46TTU 4th & 28 at TTU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:16LSU 4th & 3 at TTU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:43TTU 4th & 16 at LSU 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:22LSU 4th & 8 at TTU 39, up 8
    Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:57TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 5, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:26LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 34, up 8
    Close callPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:21TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:05LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:39TTU 4th & 12 at TTU 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:03TTU 4th & 23 at TTU 19, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:00TTU 4th & 15 at LSU 36, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:44TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:43TTU 4th & 1 at LSU 1, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:47LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:53TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:29LSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:41LSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:38TTU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:28TTU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:17LSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:07LSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:09LSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:20TTU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:16LSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:24LSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1529% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
28.8%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Davon Godchaux for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
29.1%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
29.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+3
29.3%
Taylor Symmank punt for 44 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 3 yds to the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:5871% → 71%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
29.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+35
29.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 35 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
29.6%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+15
29.7%
Fournette, Leonard pass incomplete to Dupre, Malachi, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Nelson, Justis) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
29.7%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
29.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 11 yds to the TexTc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
29.0%
Leonard Fournette 2 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 2:0129% → 29%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
29.4%
Mahomes, Patrick pass complete to Pearson, Brad for 7 yards to the TEXASTECH41, PENALTY TEXASTECH tripping (Morales, Alfredo) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 25
OWN 19
+10
29.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 10 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
29.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 15
OWN 29
-13
29.3%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Kendell Beckwith for a loss of 13 yards to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 28
OWN 16
+3
29.3%
Taylor Symmank punt for 57 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 3 yds to the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 4:3071% → 71%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
29.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-1
29.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the LSU 45 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
29.3%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+10
29.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Derrius Guice for 10 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
29.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
29.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
29.1%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
29.5%
Jamie Keehn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 4:2330% → 35%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
29.9%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tashawn Bower) to the TexTc 15Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 5
OWN 15
+3
30.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+5
30.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 5 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
30.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-3
30.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+16
29.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 16 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
30.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 19 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
31.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-4
31.4%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 46 DeAndre Washington fumbled, recovered by TexTc DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+46
34.7%
Jakeem Grant 46 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
29.4%
D.J. Chark 79 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:4329% → 28%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
29.2%
Patrick Mahomes run for 3 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Deondre Clark) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
30.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-5
30.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 49Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+15
29.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 15 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
30.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (DeAndre Washington) to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 15
OPP 41
-1
29.4%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 16
OPP 42
0
29.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 16
OPP 42
0
28.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 16
OPP 42
0
27.9%
Taylor Symmank punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:2171% → 73%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
28.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Colin Jeter for 9 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+5
28.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
28.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 14 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
27.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 5 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
27.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 1 yd to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+15
27.1%
Harris, Brandon pass incomplete to Diarse, John, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Bethel, Nigel) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
26.4%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+5
26.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
26.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John Diarse LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
27.2%
Jamie Keehn punt for 34 yds, downed at the TexTc 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2527% → 25%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
26.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
26.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
25.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 10
OWN 5
+16
25.1%
Taylor Symmank punt for 53 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 16 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 1:1675% → 80%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
25.1%
Guice, Derrius rush for 11 yards to the TEXASTECH31, PENALTY LSU holding (Clapp, William) 10 yards to the LSU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+8
25.8%
Derrius Guice run for 8 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+44
20.4%
Leonard Fournette 44 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 2:5821% → 30%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
21.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 22 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
21.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 3 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+12
21.6%
Patrick Mahomes run for 12 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
22.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+18
22.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 18 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
23.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 20 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
22.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 12 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
22.9%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the LSU 3Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.0%
Jakeem Grant 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0774% → 74%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
26.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-5
25.0%
Harris, Brandon pass complete to Diarse, John for 35 yards to the TEXASTECH35, PENALTY LSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the LSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+9
26.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
24.9%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
25.7%
Jamie Keehn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:0526% → 25%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
26.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 8 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-3
27.5%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Deion Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+10
25.4%
Mahomes, Patrick pass incomplete to Sadler, Ian, PENALTY LSU holding (Toliver II, Kevin) 10 yards to the TEXASTECH44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
27.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
26.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
25.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ja'Deion HighSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
24.7%
Taylor Symmank punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
24.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5575% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.7%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
25.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
26.8%
Jamie Keehn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2627% → 25%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
27.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
26.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 9 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
27.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
27.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
27.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 7 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-9
28.2%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Davon Godchaux for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 37 Patrick Mahomes fumbled, forced by Davon Godchaux, recovered by TexTc Emeka Okafor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 12
OWN 37
+5
24.8%
Taylor Symmank punt for 48 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 5 yds to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:5275% → 74%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
25.4%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
25.6%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+1
26.4%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Dakota Allen return for 1 yd to the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:1931% → 44%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
30.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
30.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
44.3%
Reginald Davis 31 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1161% → 78%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.4%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+30
41.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to John Diarse for 30 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
22.2%
Leonard Fournette 43 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20INT
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:4125% → 28%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+28
25.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 28 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
26.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
25.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Tony Brown for 5 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+18
26.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 18 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
29.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Brad Pearson for 18 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
29.5%
Patrick Mahomes run for 1 yd to the LSU 16Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+21
27.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted Rickey Jefferson return for 21 yds to the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:1377% → 90%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
23.3%
Harris, Brandon pass incomplete to Jeter, Colin, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Jeter, Colin) 11 yards to the LSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 21
OWN 11
+39
23.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 39 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
50
0
20.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
50
+46
20.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Trey Quinn for 46 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.6%
Leonard Fournette 4 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:4813% → 12%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
13.2%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-6
12.6%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Kendell Beckwith for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 16
OWN 26
-7
12.3%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Tashawn Bower and Kendell Beckwith for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 19Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 23
OWN 19
+13
12.1%
Taylor Symmank punt for 58 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 13 yds to the LSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:5490% → 98%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
9.9%
D.J. Chark run for 7 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+10
8.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 10 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
8.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 21 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
1.7%
Brandon Harris 26 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:404% → 14%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
3.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 6 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
3.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+24
3.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 24 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
3.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 5 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-10
3.2%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 10 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 15
OPP 36
0
2.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 15
OPP 36
+27
2.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 27 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
3.0%
Mahomes, Patrick pass incomplete to Pearson, Brad, PENALTY LSU offside 5 yards to the LSU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.7%
Jakeem Grant 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:4994% → 99%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
6.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 10 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
4.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to David Ducre for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
4.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 5
50
+32
4.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 32 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
4.2%
Brandon Harris run for 9 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+6
4.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the TexTc 6 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (3 Yards) to the TexTc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
4.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q4 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
4.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the TexTc 2Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.9%
Leonard Fournette 2 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:242% → 2%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
1.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
1.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
1.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+18
1.7%
Taylor Symmank punt for 53 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 18 yds to the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 3:2099% → 100%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
1.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 10 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
0.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+16
0.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 16 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
0.6%
Derrius Guice run for 21 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
0.6%
Derrius Guice run for 8 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Darrel Williams 2 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28DOWNS
15 plays · 61 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 2 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
0.1%
LSU Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (Davon Godchaux) to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+30
0.1%
Justin Stockton run for 30 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for no gain to the LSU 25 Patrick Mahomes fumbled, recovered by TexTc Patrick MahomesSimilar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+12
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 12 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for 2 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+10
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 10 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Demarcus Felton run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
0.1%
Brandon Harris run for 6 yds to the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:17
Leonard Fournette 43 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)
-19
TD · Q3 10:28
Reginald Davis 31 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)
+13.6
TD · Q4 12:20
Jakeem Grant 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com