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NEV

Nevada 28 at Colorado State 23

CSU
2015 · NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl · Dec 29, 2015 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+3.1CSU 46.4%Wyatt Bryan 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 19 - HOME 13 · Q2 0:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:08 · Wyatt Bryan 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense−4.3Pregame prior+4.5Garbage-time factor−2.2Score differential−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:04: Nick Stevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:38: James Butler run for 77 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +13.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:55: Jasen Oden Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +22.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:40: Wyatt Bryan 38 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +18.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:06: James Butler 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — NEV win probability +42.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:21NEV 4th & 2 at CSU 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:06CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:13NEV 4th & 5 at CSU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:47CSU 4th & 1 at NEV 4, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−2.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−8.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:43NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 5, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:46CSU 4th & 3 at NEV 3, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−8.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:08CSU 4th & 10 at NEV 12, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:16NEV 4th & 13 at CSU 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−9.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:34NEV 4th & 1 at CSU 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−7.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−10.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:53CSU 4th & 11 at NEV 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:05NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 27, up 2
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:40CSU 4th & 15 at NEV 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−16.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−24.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 7:04CSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:38NEV Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:33NEV Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:55CSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:06NEV Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    81.1%−1.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:1459% → 60%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.2%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard Higgins, broken up by Ian SeauSimilar
Q1 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
59.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 17 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
59.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 9 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+2
59.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
59.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
59.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+9
59.5%
Nick Stevens sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yardline, Nick Stevens fumbled, forced by Ian Seau, recovered by Nevad Rykeem Yates , return for 9 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 5:1041% → 42%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
59.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 1 yd to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+11
58.9%
James Butler run for 11 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
58.7%
Tyler Stewart run for 12 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
58.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
58.6%
Tyler Stewart run for 9 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+4
58.7%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
58.5%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the ColSt 2Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
58.2%
James Butler run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 5Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
58.5%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the ColSt 2Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
58.2%
Brent Zuzo 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:0858% → 57%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 13 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
58.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+16
58.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 16 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
59.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 11
50
+2
58.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-5
58.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
57.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+13
57.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 39 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 13 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:4842% → 46%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
57.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+14
58.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 14 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
57.1%
James Butler run for 13 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
56.8%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+15
56.1%
Stewart, Tyler pass incomplete to Henderson, Hasaan, PENALTY COLOST pass interference (Simmons, Tyree) 15 yards to the COLOST25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEVADA.Similar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
55.7%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
55.5%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-10
55.9%
Butler, James rush for 14 yards to the COLOST8, PENALTY NEVADA holding 10 yards to the COLOST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 17
OPP 32
+12
56.2%
Don Jackson run for 12 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
53.9%
Brent Zuzo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:1955% → 52%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
54.6%
Nick Stevens sacked by Jordan Dobrich for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+35
54.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 35 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
56.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 7 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
56.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+10
55.3%
Craig Leonard run for 10 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
56.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 12 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
56.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
56.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard Higgins, broken up by Ahki MuhammadSimilar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+3
55.0%
Nick Stevens run for 3 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 1
OPP 4
0
52.3%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the Nevad 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5849% → 50%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
51.1%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+3
51.1%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 4
OWN 10
-5
51.1%
Jackson, Don rush for 7 yards to the NEVADA17, PENALTY NEVADA holding (Henry, Jacob) 5 yards to the NEVADA5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
49.8%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 9
OWN 5
0
50.4%
Alex Boy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the Nevad 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:3152% → 65%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
51.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 38 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.5%
Nick Stevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 0:1740% → 53%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
60.4%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
60.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Martavius Foster) to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+77
47.1%
James Butler run for 77 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG
13 plays · 81 yds · 4:3749% → 54%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
48.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+22
48.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nolan Peralta for 22 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
49.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+20
49.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 20 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Steven WalkerSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
50.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+24
50.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 24 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
51.9%
Nick Stevens run for 5 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
51.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
49.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Kivon Cartwright, broken up by Dameon BaberSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
53.5%
Wyatt Bryan 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 1:0742% → 46%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
41.7%
Nick Stevens run for 14 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
42.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Kivon CartwrightSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
42.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+11
41.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 11 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
44.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 5 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+14
44.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 14 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
45.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Jordon VadenSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
45.3%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+14
43.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 14 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
44.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
44.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Kivon CartwrightSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
43.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
46.4%
Wyatt Bryan 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
43.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:3156% → 64%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
44.4%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
43.3%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+16
44.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 16 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
41.7%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+10
41.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 10 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
40.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 11 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
39.9%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Joe Kawulok for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+13
39.5%
Don Jackson run for 13 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
38.8%
Jerico Richardson run for 1 yd to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
38.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-4
39.7%
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 23Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+40
36.0%
Brent Zuzo 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1636% → 58%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
37.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 11 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
37.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for 7 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+1
38.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
37.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
37.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 14 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
39.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+7
39.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 7 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
38.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
38.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+11
35.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 11 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
58.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0653% → 56%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
47.3%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
45.3%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
44.8%
James Butler run for 12 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
44.2%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+5
43.5%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
41.8%
Tyler Stewart run for no gain to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
44.0%
James Butler run for no gain to the ColSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 5:3152% → 47%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
51.5%
Nick Stevens sacked by Lenny Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+11
50.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 11 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
52.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 5 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
54.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
55.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+8
52.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 8 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
55.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
55.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-10
54.4%
Oden Jr., Jasen rush for 1 yard to the NEVADA36, PENALTY COLOST holding (Zerblis, Fred) 10 yards to the NEVADA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
49.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Izzy MatthewsSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
46.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3959% → 59%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
41.0%
Don Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+1
39.3%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
40.1%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
38.8%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
37.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
41.2%
Alex Boy punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:1848% → 62%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
47.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 23 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
52.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 10 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
55.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+9
53.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
52.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+1
49.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the Nevad 11Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-10
46.8%
Stevens, Nick pass incomplete to Matthews, Izzy, PENALTY COLOST holding (Moxley, Trae) 10 yards to the NEVADA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 15
OPP 21
0
43.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+38
61.7%
Wyatt Bryan 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:2242% → 95%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
58.5%
James Butler run for 15 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
54.5%
Tyler Stewart run for 14 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
52.9%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+22
53.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 22 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
51.8%
James Butler run for 13 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
52.8%
James Butler run for no gain to the ColSt 7Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
53.7%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
5.1%
James Butler 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20END OF GAME
10 plays · 76 yds · 0:4411% → 17%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
10.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 15 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
10.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Steven Walker for 17 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
12.4%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
11.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 4
50
+5
12.9%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Lenny Jones) to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
13.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Steven WalkerSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
12.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 10 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
14.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Steven Walker for 14 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
17.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 9 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:06
James Butler 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-42.9
TD · Q3 3:55
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+22.3
FG · Q4 3:40
Wyatt Bryan 38 yd FG GOOD
+18.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com