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UNC

North Carolina 38 at Baylor 49

BAY
2015 · Russell Athletic Bowl · Dec 29, 2015 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:28 · Joey Mangili punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 46 BAYLOR Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Terrell Burt) to the Bayl 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Home team on offense+4.6Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.8Pregame prior+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:35: Johnny Jefferson 11 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +8.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:45: Marquise Williams 1 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick) — UNC win probability +15.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 3:07: Terence Williams 3 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +12.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:04: Johnny Jefferson 80 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +15.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:47: Bug Howard 27 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (Nick Weiler Kick) — UNC win probability +14.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:47BAY 4th & 2 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:48BAY 4th & 9 at UNC 34, tied
    Close callWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:13BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:08UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:28UNC 4th & 12 at BAY 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:16BAY 4th & 5 at UNC 27, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:28UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−2.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:03UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:17BAY 4th & 2 at UNC 37, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:28BAY 4th & 1 at UNC 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:37UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:25BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:15BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:35BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:16BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:35UNC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:45UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:07BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:04BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:47UNC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:24BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:20UNC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 44 yds · 2:5956% → 57%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.1%
Chris Johnson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
56.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 14 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.2%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
56.2%
Chris Johnson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
56.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 2
50
+15
56.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 15 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
56.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-5
56.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+1
56.4%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+5
56.5%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 5 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+5
56.4%
Chris Johnson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 34 BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+3
56.5%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 3:0244% → 47%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
56.3%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+6
56.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+4
56.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
56.0%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
55.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+18
56.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 18 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
55.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
55.8%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
55.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Damien WashingtonSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
55.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Touching (Quinshad Davis) to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+11
56.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
55.5%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
55.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
53.3%
Brandon Fritts 9 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0054% → 58%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.0%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
54.0%
Chris Johnson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
54.0%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
54.0%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
53.9%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+3
53.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+24
53.4%
Johnny Jefferson pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 24 yds Ishmael Zamora fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
54.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
54.5%
Devin Chafin pass complete to KD Cannon for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
54.0%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
54.4%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+4
54.4%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
58.1%
Lynx Hawthorne 6 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0944% → 44%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.4%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
56.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Damien WashingtonSimilar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
56.8%
Williams, Marquise pass incomplete to Davis, Quinshad, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Reid, Ryan) 15 yards to the UNC43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
55.5%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
55.4%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+2
56.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 2 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
56.2%
Joey Mangili punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 1:5357% → 64%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
56.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+41
56.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 41 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
58.4%
Johnny Jefferson pass incomplete to Gus PenningSimilar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
58.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+37
58.3%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 37 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
59.0%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd to the NCaro 2Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.6%
Devin Chafin 2 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:3240% → 41%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
60.4%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
60.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+9
60.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
59.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 4 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+13
59.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 13 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
59.8%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
59.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-4
60.9%
Marquise Williams sacked by Aiavion Edwards for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 15Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
59.1%
Nick Weiler 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4459% → 70%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.2%
Chris Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.0%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
58.8%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to Terence Williams for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
58.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Romar Morris) to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
60.0%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+9
61.0%
Devin Chafin run for 9 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
61.3%
Devin Chafin run for 9 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+28
61.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 28 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
69.9%
Johnny Jefferson 11 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8INT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:0632% → 31%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
67.8%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+10
68.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 10 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+10
68.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 10 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
67.8%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
67.7%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
69.4%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
69.4%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Orion Stewart return for 24 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:5072% → 81%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
72.3%
Johnny Jefferson pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
72.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+13
71.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
50
+7
72.9%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-15
73.1%
Jefferson, Johnny pass complete to Zamora, Ishmael for 4 yards to the UNC39, PENALTY BAYLOR personal foul 15 yards to the BAYLOR42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+9
73.2%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+17
72.9%
Terence Williams run for 17 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
74.2%
Devin Chafin pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
74.3%
Lynx Hawthorne run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+7
74.2%
Chris Johnson pass complete to KD Cannon for 7 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+27
81.2%
Johnny Jefferson 27 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 1:2319% → 28%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.5%
Marquise Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
80.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+21
81.0%
T.J. Logan run for 21 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
80.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
81.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Caleb Peterson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 15
50
+21
82.5%
Marquise Williams run for 21 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
78.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan Switzer, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
79.5%
Marquise Williams run for 10 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
79.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad Davis, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
79.3%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+8
80.5%
Williams, Marquise pass incomplete, PENALTY BAYLOR unsportsmanlike conduct (Oakman, Shawn) 8 yards to the BAYLOR8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
79.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Sideline Interference (4 Yards) to the Bayl 4Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.5%
Marquise Williams 4 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:2877% → 77%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
77.0%
Chris Johnson pass complete to KD Cannon for 20 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
77.3%
Devin Chafin run for 19 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
77.6%
Chris Johnson pass complete to KD Cannon for 10 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
78.0%
Chris Johnson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
78.0%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+37
76.7%
Chris Callahan 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5025% → 43%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
74.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 16 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
74.0%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+7
74.2%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
73.7%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
73.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
72.4%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+15
72.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 15 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
72.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 11 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
72.5%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.3%
Marquise Williams 1 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13INT
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:0963% → 71%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
62.9%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
63.5%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+6
66.3%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
67.4%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Jay Lee for 17 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
69.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
69.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
69.0%
Chris Johnson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
70.4%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+9
70.5%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
70.6%
Devin Chafin run for 8 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+2
70.7%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
70.8%
Chris Johnson pass intercepted Dominquie Green return for 8 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4934% → 31%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
65.8%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 1
OWN 18
-9
64.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Mack Hollins) to the NCaro 9Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
66.3%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 12
-5
67.2%
Marquise Williams sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 7Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 12
OWN 7
+54
68.7%
Joey Mangili punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 46 BAYLOR Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Terrell Burt) to the Bayl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:1669% → 84%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
68.8%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Jay Lee for 15 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
70.7%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
70.9%
Chris Johnson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+15
70.4%
Johnson, Chris pass incomplete to Cannon, KD, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Lawrence, Des) 15 yards to the UNC26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
71.7%
Devin Chafin run for 14 yds to the NCaro 12 BAYLOR Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (KD Cannon) to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 11
OPP 27
+2
72.6%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
72.8%
Chris Johnson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+17
71.5%
Devin Chafin run for 17 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.3%
Terence Williams 3 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 74 yds · 0:3617% → 21%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+67
83.1%
Elijah Hood run for 67 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
78.6%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.7%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd T.J. Logan fumbled, forced by Aiavion Edwards, recovered by Bayl Orion StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
94.0%
Johnny Jefferson 80 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:127% → 21%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.1%
Elijah Hood run for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
92.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 11 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
92.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 14 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
93.1%
Romar Morris run for 13 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
79.1%
Bug Howard 27 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1285% → 97%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.7%
Devin Chafin run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
86.2%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
86.4%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
86.8%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
50
+5
87.3%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Terence Williams for 5 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+8
87.5%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Gus Penning for 8 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
87.6%
Chris Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
87.8%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
87.4%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
88.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
88.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
90.2%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 15 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.1%
Terence Williams 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:184% → 4%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.3%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
96.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.4%
Joey Mangili punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:4197% → 99%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
97.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
97.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
97.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
97.7%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
98.1%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
98.2%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
98.4%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
98.4%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+2
98.8%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+1
98.7%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd to the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 0:552% → 7%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
98.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 19 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
98.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+12
98.0%
Marquise Williams run for 12 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
97.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Damien Washington for 23 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.2%
Kendrick Singleton 7 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:1196% → 98%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
96.3%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 1 yd to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+5
96.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+3
97.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
97.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
50
-2
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:04
Johnny Jefferson 80 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)
+15.3
TD · Q3 11:45
Marquise Williams 1 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)
-15.2
TD · Q3 0:47
Bug Howard 27 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (Nick Weiler Kick)
-14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com