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CMU

Central Michigan 14 at Minnesota 21

MINN
2015 · Quick Lane Bowl · Dec 28, 2015 · Ford Field
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.2MINN 66.4%Ryan Santoso 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 10:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:11 · Ryan Santoso 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+14.8Home team on offense+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score differential+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:43: Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +4.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:51: Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 21 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST down — CMU win probability +11.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:08: Romello Ross run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +24.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:26: Mitch Leidner run for 13 yds for a TD, (Mitch Leidner pass to KJ Maye for Two-Point Conversion) — MINN win probability +34.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:07: Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 36 — MINN win probability +8.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:11MINN 4th & 4 at CMU 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.7%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:12CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:24MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:48CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:14CMU 4th & 28 at CMU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:32MINN 4th & 7 at CMU 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:28CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:30MINN 4th & 11 at CMU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:55CMU 4th & 10 at MINN 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:44MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 42, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00CMU 4th & 15 at CMU 10, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−3.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:58MINN 4th & 2 at CMU 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−3.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:13MINN 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:55CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:43MINN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:08CMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−1.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:26MINN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    79.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:2966% → 66%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
66.1%
Rodney Smith run for 37 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
66.2%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+9
66.2%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
66.3%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
66.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 13 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
66.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the CMich 10Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+3
66.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+2
66.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
66.4%
Ryan Santoso 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3234% → 34%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
66.0%
Romello Ross run for 3 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
66.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
66.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony RiceSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+14
66.5%
Zach Oakley punt for 56 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for 14 yds to the Minn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:4166% → 66%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
66.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
65.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
65.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 10 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
66.1%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
65.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon LingenSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+4
65.6%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+6
65.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 54 yds , Emmett Thomas returns for 6 yds to the CMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 5:5534% → 40%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
66.3%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+16
66.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Romello Ross for 16 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
66.1%
Anthony Rice run for 6 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+11
65.5%
Cooper Rush run for 11 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
65.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Zach CrouchSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
65.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Romello Ross for 9 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
65.1%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
65.0%
Romello Ross run for 11 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
64.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 11 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
64.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the Minn 17Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
64.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+16
64.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 16 yds to the Minn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.8%
Joe Bacci run for no gain to the Minn 1Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.8%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the Minn 1Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.4%
Cooper Rush run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0762% → 68%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
61.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 19 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
62.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 45Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+14
62.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 14 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+30
63.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 30 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
67.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:2734% → 34%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
65.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 3 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
65.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
66.4%
Cooper Rush run for 8 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
65.5%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
65.0%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+11
64.1%
Romello Ross run for 11 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
63.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
63.6%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
65.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Ben McCordSimilar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
65.6%
Zach Oakley punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4065% → 65%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
64.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+5
65.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 5 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+9
64.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 9 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
65.8%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
64.6%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Josh Cox return for no gain to the Minn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -18 yds · 0:2137% → 33%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Ben McCordSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
62.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-18
64.2%
Cooper Rush sacked by TEAM for a loss of 18 yards to the MINNESOTA 36 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cooper Rush) to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 28
OWN 36
+11
66.8%
Zach Oakley punt for 49 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for 11 yds to the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:1366% → 65%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
65.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 2 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
65.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+7
64.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 7 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
66.6%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+11
66.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
50
-6
68.0%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Jabari Dean for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+5
66.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 5 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+4
65.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 4 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
65.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds, downed at the CMich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:4934% → 35%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
66.2%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+6
66.3%
Romello Ross run for 6 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
65.6%
Romello Ross run for 17 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
64.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Corey Willis) to the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5734% → 34%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.7%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
65.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Romello Ross for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
65.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
66.5%
Cooper Rush punt for 55 yds, downed at the Minn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 4:1567% → 73%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
66.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+7
66.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 7 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+2
65.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+40
66.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 40 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
69.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 15 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-9
71.2%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Mitch Stanitzek for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 19
OPP 32
+3
69.8%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 16
OPP 29
+5
68.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
72.6%
Ryan Santoso 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:0533% → 29%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
67.3%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-4
67.3%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+11
69.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 11 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
67.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
67.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for no gain to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
69.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for no gain to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
71.1%
Brian Eavey punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:4674% → 78%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
74.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
74.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kavon Frazier) to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
76.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
76.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 7 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
79.1%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
77.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Emmett Thomas at the CMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0528% → 26%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
71.6%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the CMich 15Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-5
72.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Romello Ross for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 10Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 15
OWN 10
0
73.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Zach CrouchSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 15
OWN 10
+3
74.2%
Zach Oakley punt for 45 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for 3 yds to the Minn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4781% → 81%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
80.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 7 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-3
81.3%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+4
80.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
80.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for no gain to the CMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:4331% → 58%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
69.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 21 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
65.4%
Romello Ross run for 16 yds to the Minn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
66.6%
Romello Ross run for 6 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
42.5%
Romello Ross run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:1451% → 93%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
51.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 6 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
54.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 5 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
53.0%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+8
56.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 8 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
57.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
56.9%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+9
55.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 9 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.5%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
58.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 7 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+7
55.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
58.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+5
58.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 5 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
92.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 13 yds for a TD, (Mitch Leidner pass to KJ Maye for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:4913% → 15%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
86.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 19 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
84.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 7 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
82.4%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
83.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
83.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Eric Cooper for 3 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
85.5%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Briean Boddy-Calhoun return for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:5494% → 96%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
93.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
94.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
95.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 10 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
95.7%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
96.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
96.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
96.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 6
50
0
96.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:059% → 9%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+26
91.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 26 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
90.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
90.7%
Cooper Rush sacked by De'Vondre Campbell for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:26
Mitch Leidner run for 13 yds for a TD, (Mitch Leidner pass to KJ Maye for Two-Point Conversion)
+34.5
TD · Q4 11:08
Romello Ross run for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-24.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:51
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 21 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST down
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com