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PITT

Pittsburgh 28 at Navy 44

NAVY
2015 · Military Bowl · Dec 28, 2015 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFUMBLETDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:43 · Chris Blewitt 29 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense+1.9Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Pregame prior+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:41: Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:28: Demond Brown run for 26 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q3 2:57: Chris Swain run for a loss of 1 yard Chris Swain fumbled, recovered by Pitt Jordan Whitehead , return for 22 yds, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +12.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:58: Toneo Gulley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:35: Qadree Ollison run for 45 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +11.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 11:43PITT 4th & 7 at NAVY 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−3.8
    average punt
  2. Q2 7:58NAVY 4th & 11 at PITT 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  3. Q3 10:53PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  4. Q3 8:11NAVY 4th & 3 at PITT 17, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q4 14:00NAVY 4th & 2 at PITT 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−1.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q4 12:00NAVY 4th & 1 at PITT 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−1.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−7.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:46PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:26NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:41NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:41NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:28NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:14PITT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:58NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:35PITT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:19NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0959% → 60%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
58.5%
Chris Swain run for 11 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
58.4%
Demond Brown run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+12
58.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 12 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
58.2%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+31
58.2%
Dishan Romine run for 31 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
58.1%
Toneo Gulley run for 3 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
58.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+9
57.7%
Chris Swain run for 9 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
57.7%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:3741% → 42%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+21
58.5%
Tyler Boyd run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
50
+3
57.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
57.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler Boyd, broken up by Brendon ClementsSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
57.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 6:4459% → 65%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+26
58.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Demond Brown for 26 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
59.2%
Demond Brown run for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
59.5%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
59.7%
Toneo Gulley run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
59.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+8
59.7%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
59.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Dishan RomineSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
59.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+16
59.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 16 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
60.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Pitt 10Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 10
0
60.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Pitt 10Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
60.1%
Dishan Romine run for 3 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
60.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:5737% → 37%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
63.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 12 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
63.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
62.6%
Tyler Boyd run for 7 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
62.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 11 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
62.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+22
62.3%
Jordan Whitehead run for 22 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
61.7%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Navy 13Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
61.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+2
62.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
63.5%
Chris Blewitt 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:3865% → 67%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
64.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
65.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to DeBrandon SandersSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
64.9%
Dishan Romine run for 7 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+3
65.5%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
66.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+16
66.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Toneo Gulley for 16 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
67.8%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
67.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
68.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Demond BrownSimilar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-5
67.5%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (Keenan Reynolds) to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
66.7%
Alex Barta punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:4633% → 34%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
66.8%
Tyler Boyd run for 5 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-2
66.0%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+8
67.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.5%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted Lorentez Barbour return for no gain to the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:1668% → 81%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
68.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Thomas WilsonSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
68.0%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+12
67.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 12 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
68.8%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
70.1%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 6 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
70.6%
Quentin Ezell run for 1 yd to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+10
70.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
71.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Demond BrownSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+14
71.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 14 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
71.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 14 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
71.8%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+11
80.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9INT
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:3922% → 24%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
78.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 20 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
76.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Elijah ZeiseSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+21
76.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 21 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
76.5%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted Brendon Clements return for 15 yds to the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
80.1%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1281% → 94%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+47
81.4%
Shawn White pass complete to Keenan Reynolds for 47 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
82.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+4
83.1%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+26
93.5%
Demond Brown run for 26 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:178% → 7%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
91.5%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
92.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
92.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 44 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 1 yd to the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:2494% → 95%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
94.0%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+48
94.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 48 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
94.8%
Demond Brown run for no gain to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
95.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+7
95.0%
Jamir Tillman run for 7 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
95.2%
Austin Grebe 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:466% → 10%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
94.5%
Tyler Boyd run for 20 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
94.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 8 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+21
94.4%
Jordan Whitehead run for 21 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
94.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 11 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
94.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
94.4%
Tyler Boyd run for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+10
95.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 10 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
95.4%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
95.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 2 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0992% → 80%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
92.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to DeBrandon SandersSimilar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+22
79.9%
Chris Swain run for a loss of 1 yard Chris Swain fumbled, recovered by Pitt Jordan Whitehead , return for 22 yds, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
16 plays · 68 yds · 6:3781% → 97%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
80.6%
Chris Swain run for 11 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
82.9%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
83.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+6
83.0%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
84.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
85.0%
Quentin Ezell run for 2 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-10
84.3%
NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamir Tillman) to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+15
83.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 15 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+13
83.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 13 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
85.7%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+3
86.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+4
86.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Demond Brown for 4 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
85.4%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
86.8%
Chris Swain run for no gain to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
96.5%
Toneo Gulley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:005% → 16%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
95.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 5 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+8
95.3%
Nathan Peterman run for 8 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
95.3%
Nathan Peterman run for 15 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
84.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 45 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0686% → 99%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.7%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
88.8%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+43
89.7%
Dishan Romine run for 43 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
91.6%
Quentin Ezell run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
91.9%
Quentin Ezell run for 3 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+2
92.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+5
91.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Khaynin Mosley-Smith) to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
92.9%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
93.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Tyler CarmonaSimilar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
98.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:314% → 4%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
96.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 15 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
96.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 10 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
95.9%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted Brendon Clements return for 1 yd to the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 22 yds · 2:3599% → 99%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
98.8%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
98.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
98.9%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.0%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
99.1%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+8
99.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 2:57
Chris Swain run for a loss of 1 yard Chris Swain fumbled, recovered by Pitt Jordan Whitehead , return for 22 yds, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q4 9:35
Qadree Ollison run for 45 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-11
TD · Q3 12:28
Demond Brown run for 26 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com