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TLSA

Tulsa 52 at Virginia Tech 55

VT
2015 · Camping World Independence Bowl · Dec 26, 2015 · Independence Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:06 · Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Pregame prior+5.4Home team on offense+24.6Score differential+10.6Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.3Time remaining+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:09: Travon McMillian run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +6.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:20: D'Angelo Brewer run for 10 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +7.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:11: Dane Evans run for 9 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones PAT MISSED) — TLSA win probability +7.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:35: Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 21 yds for a TD, (Dane Evans pass to Keyarris Garrett for Two-Point Conversion) — TLSA win probability +8.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:47: Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 36 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +25.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 10:49TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:53VT 4th & 6 at TLSA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:16TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15TLSA 4th & 1 at VT 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−0.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:14TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:11TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:26TLSA 4th & 12 at VT 12, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:05VT 4th & 8 at VT 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:37TLSA 4th & 9 at VT 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:18VT 4th & 4 at TLSA 42, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:23TLSA 4th & 19 at TLSA 3, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−2.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:41TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 27, down 15
    Close callPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:09VT 4th & 9 at TLSA 24, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:06TLSA 4th & 2 at VT 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:55VT 4th & 3 at VT 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:00VT 4th & 5 at VT 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:17TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:14TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:53VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 11:54TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 11:42VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 5:28VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q1 2:19TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 13:09VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 9:09VT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:20TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 7:38VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 4:11TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:35TLSA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:47TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:3815% → 16%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
84.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete, broken up by Dadi NicolasSimilar
Q1 14:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
84.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+20
84.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 20 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
84.2%
D'Angelo Brewer 48 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 0:5684% → 84%
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
84.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 6 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
84.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 6 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
84.2%
Travon McMillian 51 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5016% → 17%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
84.0%
Zack Langer run for 43 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
83.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 15 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
83.6%
Dane Evans run for 7 yds to the VTech 10Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+8
83.5%
Dane Evans run for 8 yds to the VTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.9%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
83.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 75 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4216% → 16%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.6%
Ramadi Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
83.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Donovan RileySimilar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
83.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+44
83.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 34 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 44 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4684% → 84%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
83.7%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
83.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
83.5%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
83.6%
Joey Slye 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2517% → 17%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.5%
Conner Floyd run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-2
83.5%
Dane Evans sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+13
83.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 13 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
83.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:4383% → 85%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
83.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 20 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
83.5%
J.C. Coleman run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
83.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+4
83.3%
J.C. Coleman run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
83.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
83.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
83.3%
Isaiah Ford run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+14
85.0%
Sam Rogers run for 14 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0315% → 20%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+44
84.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 44 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
83.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
83.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Mandel Dixon for 5 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
84.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the VTech 11Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
84.3%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
83.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the VTech 9Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
80.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 9 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5681% → 84%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 8 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
81.5%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
81.0%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
81.0%
Brewer, Michael pass incomplete to Ford, Isaiah, PENALTY TULSA pass interference (Barrow, Will) 15 yards to the TULSA48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
81.6%
Sam Rogers run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+1
81.6%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
81.3%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
81.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
81.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+18
81.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 18 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
84.4%
Bucky Hodges run for 16 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:4516% → 16%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
84.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 15 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
83.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 4 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
83.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
84.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5684% → 91%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
83.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to J.C. Coleman for 11 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
83.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
83.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 3 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+4
83.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 4 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
84.2%
J.C. Coleman run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+46
84.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 46 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.1%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4811% → 7%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.4%
Ramadi Warren run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
89.2%
Dane Evans sacked by Andrew Motuapuaka for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
89.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 4 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+67
93.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 42 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 67 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:397% → 6%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
93.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+8
93.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
93.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
93.3%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Chandler Miller) to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+6
93.8%
Dane Evans run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+18
93.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 18 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
93.3%
Dane Evans run for 9 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+18
93.2%
Ramadi Warren run for 3 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dadi Nicolas) to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
92.9%
Zack Langer run for 11 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
93.0%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the VTech 7Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
93.1%
Dane Evans sacked by Vinny Mihota for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
93.7%
Redford Jones 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:1296% → 96%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
95.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 7 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
95.7%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
95.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
95.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Ryan Malleck, broken up by Jeremy BradySimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
95.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 27 yds, downed at the Tulsa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 0:376% → 14%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
94.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 32 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
93.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 11 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+11
93.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 11 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
92.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by Terrell EdmundsSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
85.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 10 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18TD
17 plays · 81 yds · 7:1189% → 97%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
89.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 9 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 1
OWN 28
-5
89.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Ford) to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+1
89.3%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the VTech 24Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+8
89.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 8 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
89.7%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+5
89.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+14
89.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 14 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
90.6%
Bucky Hodges run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+10
90.6%
Trey Edmunds run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
90.7%
Sam Rogers pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
90.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 11 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
91.1%
Bucky Hodges run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+12
91.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 12 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
91.3%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+5
91.5%
Bucky Hodges run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.1%
Trey Edmunds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:554% → 3%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+25
96.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Nigel Carter for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
50
+7
96.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-6
96.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 49 D'Angelo Brewer fumbled, recovered by Tulsa D'Angelo BrewerSimilar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
96.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
96.8%
Dane Evans punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20INT
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:1597% → 97%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
97.2%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the VTech 21Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
97.2%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+20
97.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 20 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+43
97.0%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted Jeremy Brady return for 43 yds to the VTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
89.3%
Dane Evans run for 9 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones PAT MISSED)Similar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 0
OPP 0
-5
88.7%
TULSA Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the VTech 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4295% → 94%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
94.5%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
94.6%
Isaiah Ford run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
94.8%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
94.8%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
94.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky Hodges, broken up by Michael MudohSimilar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
94.3%
A.J. Hughes punt for 30 yds, downed at the Tulsa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:497% → 6%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
93.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
93.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by Andrew MotuapuakaSimilar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
93.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 10
OWN 12
-5
93.7%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 15
OWN 7
-4
93.9%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 19
OWN 3
+7
93.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 42 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 7 yds to the Tulsa 10 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (Steven Peoples) to the Tulsa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 47 yds · 0:2895% → 95%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
95.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 19 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
95.3%
J.C. Coleman run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+19
95.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 19 yds J.C. Coleman fumbled, forced by Kerwin Thomas, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:047% → 6%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Chuck ClarkSimilar
Q4 14:28
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
93.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+14
93.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 14 yds to the VTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:2295% → 97%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
95.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 25 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
95.7%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+10
95.9%
Brewer, Michael pass incomplete to Ford, Isaiah, PENALTY TULSA holding (Celistan, Johnell) 10 yards to the TULSA25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
96.0%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
96.3%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Jeremy BradySimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
96.1%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
97.4%
Joey Slye 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:233% → 12%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.0%
Ramadi Warren run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
96.9%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
96.9%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
96.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 32 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
96.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 3 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+5
96.9%
Evans, Dane pass pass intended for Garrett, Keyarris intercepted by Facyson, Brandon at the VATECH7, Facyson, Brandon return 0 yards to the VATECH7, PENALTY VATECH offside (Nicolas, Dadi) 5 yards to the VATECH25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
96.7%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+4
96.8%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
87.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 21 yds for a TD, (Dane Evans pass to Keyarris Garrett for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3291% → 92%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.0%
Isaiah Ford run for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
91.9%
Bucky Hodges run for no gain to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
91.9%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+3
91.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 47 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 3 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 1:597% → 36%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
92.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 15 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
91.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+12
91.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 12 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
90.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
89.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
89.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+36
64.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 36 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 1:3679% → 88%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
79.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
79.0%
Sam Rogers run for 4 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+12
81.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 12 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.5%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
86.3%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
88.3%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
87.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:3721% → 12%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
79.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 8 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+18
77.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 18 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
74.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-6
76.7%
Dane Evans sacked by Dadi Nicolas and Luther Maddy for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 16
OWN 40
0
86.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 16
OWN 40
-8
87.8%
Dane Evans sacked by Dadi Nicolas for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4994% → 96%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
93.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
95.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:47
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 36 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-25.7
TD · Q4 7:35
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 21 yds for a TD, (Dane Evans pass to Keyarris Garrett for Two-Point Conversion)
-8.9
TD · Q3 4:11
Dane Evans run for 9 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones PAT MISSED)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com