Try the model
IU

Indiana 41 at Duke 44

DUKE
2015 · New Era Pinstripe Bowl · Dec 26, 2015 · Yankee Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:44 · Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mitchell Paige
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 31Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Pregame prior−3.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:11: Nick Westbrook 3 Yd pass from Nate Sudfeld (Griffin Oakes Kick) — IU win probability +16.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:20: Alex Rodriguez 10 Yd Run (Griffin Oakes Kick) — IU win probability +26.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:55: Shaun Wilson 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Ross Martin Kick) — DUKE win probability +28.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  4. TD · Q4 4:03: Mitchell Paige 25 Yd pass from Nate Sudfeld (Griffin Oakes Kick) — IU win probability +30.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:41: Thomas Sirk 5 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick) — DUKE win probability +37.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:03IU 4th & 3 at IU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:48DUKE 4th & 5 at IU 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:44IU 4th & 6 at DUKE 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.6%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:30IU 4th & 3 at DUKE 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:18IU 4th & 1 at DUKE 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−2.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:19DUKE 4th & 7 at IU 37, up 10
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−0.5
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:21DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:25DUKE 4th & 2 at IU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.3%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:00DUKE 4th & 3 at IU 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−9.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:19DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:33IU 4th & 5 at IU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:12DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:41IU 4th & 4 at IU 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:54DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−3.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:12IU 4th & 5 at DUKE 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−15.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:50IU 4th & 10 at IU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−4.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:40IU 4th & 5 at IU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−3.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:07DUKE 4th & 1 at IU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−7.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−29.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:38DUKE 4th & 2 at IU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−5.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 1:16DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:56IU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:25IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:00DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:11IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:25DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:20IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:55DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:03IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:41DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−6.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4254% → 53%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
46.5%
Devine Redding run for 7 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
46.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
46.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q1 14:03
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+1
46.7%
Erich Toth punt for 44 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 4:0647% → 49%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
46.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
46.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 9 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+1
46.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
47.0%
Shaquille Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+2
47.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+18
47.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
50
+9
47.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
48.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
47.9%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
48.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 5 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
48.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jela DuncanSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
48.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
48.5%
Ross Martin 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:4852% → 50%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
48.5%
Devine Redding run for 5 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+7
48.5%
Devine Redding run for 7 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
48.4%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
48.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 10 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
48.2%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
48.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 5 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
48.7%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
48.7%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
48.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Devine ReddingSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+3
49.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Michael Cooper for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
49.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4INT
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:1350% → 51%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+32
50.0%
Jela Duncan run for 32 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
51.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-2
51.7%
Jela Duncan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 31Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
51.4%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted Rashard Fant return for no gain to the Ind 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5INT
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:2749% → 50%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
50.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 7 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+27
51.6%
Devine Redding run for 27 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
50.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 9 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 37
-2
50.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
51.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+5
51.4%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 5 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
50.2%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+22
50.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Andre Booker for 9 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Personal Foul (13 Yards) to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
50.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass intercepted Dwayne Norman return for 2 yds to the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
1 play · 85 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
56.4%
Shaun Wilson 85 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4243% → 43%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
57.2%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Ind 45Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
57.6%
Devine Redding run for 9 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
56.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-1
57.4%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4258% → 59%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
58.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+12
58.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 12 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
58.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
59.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ind 37Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
59.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
58.6%
Will Monday punt for 35 yds, downed at the Ind 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:2439% → 40%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
61.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Andre BookerSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+3
61.5%
Ricky Brookins run for 3 yds to the Ind 5Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+55
62.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 55 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
59.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass intercepted Phillip Carter return for no gain to the Duke 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:1960% → 60%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
59.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 15 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.0%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
61.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-4
60.4%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Nick Mangieri and Robert McCray III for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
59.9%
Will Monday punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:1337% → 46%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
63.0%
Devine Redding run for 9 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
62.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
62.8%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
63.4%
Nate Sudfeld run for 11 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
63.0%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Ind 46Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+6
63.5%
Devine Redding run for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+15
62.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 15 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
61.7%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
61.9%
Alex Rodriguez run for 3 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+27
54.0%
Luke Timian 27 Yd pass from Nate Sudfeld (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:1256% → 58%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
56.0%
Jela Duncan run for 7 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+9
56.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 9 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
56.7%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+8
56.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
58.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
58.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jela Duncan for 4 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
59.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+4
58.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 4 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
58.0%
Will Monday pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:4944% → 61%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
55.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 13 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Michael CooperSimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
55.0%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+14
55.5%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (DeVon Edwards) to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
53.8%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
53.9%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+17
38.9%
Devine Redding 17 Yd Run (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:1346% → 56%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
45.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+73
55.7%
Thomas Sirk 73 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:4240% → 55%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
60.0%
Devine Redding run for 10 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
59.5%
Devine Redding run for 10 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
58.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 11 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
56.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+23
56.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 23 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
54.6%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Jason Spriggs) to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 15
OPP 28
0
55.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Andre BookerSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+45
45.5%
Griffin Oakes 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
54.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:5353% → 60%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
52.9%
Jela Duncan run for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
54.0%
Jela Duncan run for 11 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
55.8%
Jela Duncan run for 7 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
56.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ind 45Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
56.1%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Nick Mangieri) to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
56.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+17
56.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 17 yds to the Ind 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
57.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 3 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
57.4%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-5
56.3%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Erich Schneider) to the Ind 25Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+9
55.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 9 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
59.5%
Ross Martin 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:3945% → 64%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
54.7%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+39
57.7%
Devine Redding run for 39 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
52.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 8 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
52.4%
Ricky Brookins run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
53.8%
Nate Sudfeld run for 2 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
52.5%
Ricky Brookins run for 4 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+12
52.4%
Devine Redding run for 12 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
52.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.1%
Nick Westbrook 3 Yd pass from Nate Sudfeld (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3443% → 40%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
42.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
42.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
41.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
40.0%
Will Monday punt for 51 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for no gain to the Ind 19 Mitchell Paige fumbled, forced by Shaquille Powell, recovered by Duke David ReevesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:3549% → 64%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
49.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds to the Ind 12Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
49.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Ind 10Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
64.4%
Braxton Deaver 10 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2741% → 39%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.8%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
59.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 8 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
58.3%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
59.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-2
61.4%
Erich Toth punt for 50 yds , Ryan Smith returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5861% → 59%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
61.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+4
60.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
60.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
58.7%
Will Monday punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:3640% → 69%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
60.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 19 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
56.7%
Alex Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+15
56.8%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (DeVon Edwards) to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
54.9%
Alex Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
55.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+18
57.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 18 yds to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
30.8%
Alex Rodriguez 10 Yd Run (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24INT
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:3440% → 44%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
39.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 16 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
43.6%
Jela Duncan run for 13 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
43.8%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted Dariusqq Latham return for 6 yds to the Ind 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2067% → 66%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
32.6%
Devine Redding run for 6 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
32.2%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-2
32.2%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 45Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
34.5%
Erich Toth punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3938% → 35%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
38.2%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
37.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
36.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
35.2%
Will Monday punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 27FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:2869% → 76%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
31.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 7 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+8
29.8%
Devine Redding run for 8 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
29.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 23 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
28.1%
Devine Redding run for 5 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
27.8%
Mitchell Paige pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
29.4%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
24.0%
Griffin Oakes 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:5049% → 46%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
50.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Anthony Corsaro for 12 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
50.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
51.1%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Ind 28 INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
52.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
54.5%
Erich Toth punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 30INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:0459% → 61%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
59.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
60.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+29
61.4%
Shaun Wilson pass intercepted Jonathan Crawford return for 18 yds to the Ind 29 INDIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the Ind 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:3549% → 45%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
51.1%
INDIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (-9 Yards) to the Ind 9Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+5
52.1%
Andrew Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 14
OWN 14
0
52.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
53.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+17
55.5%
Erich Toth punt for 48 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 17 yds to the Ind 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 32DOWNS
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2362% → 59%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
61.8%
Jela Duncan run for 18 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
63.0%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+2
63.1%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+2
61.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Ind 18Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
58.7%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the Ind 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 33TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:4750% → 89%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+50
49.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 50 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
42.2%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+7
41.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Devine Redding for 7 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
43.5%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
41.6%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Dan Feeney) to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+25
11.4%
Mitchell Paige 25 Yd pass from Nate Sudfeld (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 34TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 3:0921% → 65%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
21.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
21.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+18
20.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 18 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
24.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
21.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for no gain to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+8
16.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 8 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+8
17.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
21.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
20.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+4
23.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
25.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 22 yds to the Ind 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
25.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.2%
Thomas Sirk 5 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 35DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:2851% → 60%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
48.8%
Devine Redding run for 15 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
46.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
50
+7
41.9%
Nate Sudfeld run for 7 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
40.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
41.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 4 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+56
39.7%
Griffin Oakes 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 36FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
64.7%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Ind 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
64.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Ind 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
62.3%
Parker Boehme pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
78.3%
Ross Martin 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 37MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 17%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
70.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
70.9%
Mitchell Paige run for 2 yds to the Duke 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
76.4%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mike MajetteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
83.2%
Griffin Oakes 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:41
Thomas Sirk 5 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)
+37.6
TD · Q4 4:03
Mitchell Paige 25 Yd pass from Nate Sudfeld (Griffin Oakes Kick)
-30.2
TD · Q4 10:55
Shaun Wilson 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Ross Martin Kick)
+28.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com