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WASH

Washington 44 at Southern Miss 31

USM
2015 · Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl · Dec 26, 2015 · Cotton Bowl
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:25 · Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds , Chico McClatcher returns for 14 yds to the Wash 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−18.8Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:02: Jaydon Mickens run for 29 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +7.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:15: Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +14.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 2:47: Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +19.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:26: Myles Gaskin run for 86 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +24.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:22: Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 27 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +7.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:22WASH 4th & 4 at USM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:25USM 4th & 10 at USM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:56USM 4th & 3 at WASH 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−6.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:07USM 4th & 20 at WASH 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:10WASH 4th & 15 at WASH 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:46USM 4th & 5 at USM 25, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:35WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:32USM 4th & 4 at USM 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:23WASH 4th & 7 at USM 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−10.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:12USM 4th & 16 at USM 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−3.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:32USM 4th & 25 at USM 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−4.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:15WASH 4th & 3 at USM 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−8.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:44USM 4th & 7 at USM 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:30USM 4th & 2 at USM 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:13WASH 4th & 6 at USM 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:16WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:33USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:56WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:02WASH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:15USM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:47USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:26WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:53WASH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:22USM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WASHDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:3370% → 69%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.9%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Dante PettisSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
30.0%
Lavon Coleman run for 24 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
30.1%
Chico McClatcher run for 3 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-1
30.4%
Myles Gaskin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+11
30.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 11 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
30.7%
Lavon Coleman run for no gain to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
30.9%
Jake Browning run for 6 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
31.1%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Jaydon MickensSimilar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
31.4%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Dante PettisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5032% → 32%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
31.7%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
31.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
31.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+14
31.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds , Chico McClatcher returns for 14 yds to the Wash 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:5768% → 70%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
31.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 8 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+17
31.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 17 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
31.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 1 yd to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+6
31.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+4
32.0%
Myles Gaskin run for 4 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
32.0%
Myles Gaskin run for 8 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+4
32.1%
Myles Gaskin run for 4 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
32.2%
Chico McClatcher run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+14
32.6%
Jake Browning run for 14 yds to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
32.5%
Deontae Cooper run for 2 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
32.7%
Lavon Coleman run for 1 yd to the SoMis 2Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.0%
Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:2332% → 35%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
31.7%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
50
+7
31.9%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the Wash 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
32.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 25
OWN 42
+2
31.3%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 23
OWN 44
+56
35.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 56 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2765% → 71%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
34.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 41 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-8
33.6%
Myles Gaskin run for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+9
34.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Darrell Daniels for 9 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+29
34.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 29 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
33.4%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+13
33.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 13 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.4%
Myles Gaskin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 4:4431% → 36%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
31.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for no gain to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+10
31.0%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
31.3%
Justice Hayes run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
31.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+26
30.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 26 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
32.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 13 yds to the Wash 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
33.4%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Wash 23Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
33.6%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the Wash 18Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+7
32.9%
Justice Hayes run for 7 yds to the Wash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
33.7%
Justice Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 15Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 14
OPP 15
+7
33.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 7 yds to the Wash 8Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+4
33.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the Wash 4Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
36.0%
Stephen Brauchle 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:4366% → 74%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
34.4%
Myles Gaskin run for 1 yd to the Wash 36Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+20
34.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 20 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
33.2%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Marvin HallSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
33.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jomon Dotson for 15 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
26.3%
Jaydon Mickens run for 29 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:4628% → 25%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.6%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
27.1%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
27.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
25.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 10 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
26.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+20
26.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 20 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
27.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
27.3%
Nick Mullens run for no gain to the Wash 36Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-9
26.6%
Nick Mullens sacked by Travis Feeney for a loss of 9 yards to the Wash 46 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by SoMis Norman Price , return for 0 yards , return for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 46Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 20
OPP 46
0
24.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4374% → 75%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
26.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Marvin Hall for 11 yds to the Wash 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
25.5%
Lavon Coleman run for 2 yds to the Wash 33Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+15
25.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
24.2%
Myles Gaskin run for no gain to the Wash 48Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-9
24.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Wash 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Wash Jeff LindquistSimilar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+4
24.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jomon Dotson for 4 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
25.5%
Korey Durkee punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 0:5024% → 41%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
24.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
23.2%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+22
23.5%
Tyler Sarrazin pass complete to Curtis Mikell for 22 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
25.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 9 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+7
26.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ricky Parks for 7 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+36
26.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 36 yds to the Wash 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.3%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:4066% → 66%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
33.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 13 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
32.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 3 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
32.3%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Jaydon MickensSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
32.6%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Joshua PerkinsSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
34.3%
Korey Durkee punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:2636% → 37%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
35.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
36.6%
- Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:1636% → 37%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.3%
Justice Hayes run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
36.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
35.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 15 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
38.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 6 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
39.3%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
38.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ricky ParksSimilar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+25
37.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds , Marvin Hall returns for 25 yds to the Wash 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:3766% → 73%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
34.3%
Myles Gaskin run for 1 yd to the Wash 38 Myles Gaskin fumbled, recovered by Wash Andrew KirklandSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
33.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Marvin Hall for 8 yds to the Wash 46Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+7
33.5%
Myles Gaskin run for 7 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
32.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 11 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
33.0%
Myles Gaskin run for 4 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+25
31.7%
Chico McClatcher run for 25 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
31.7%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Jaydon MickensSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
31.7%
Myles Gaskin run for no gain to the SoMis 7Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
33.1%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Jaydon MickensSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
27.3%
Cameron Van Winkle 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0329% → 26%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
29.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 23 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
32.3%
Nick Mullens sacked by Vita Vea for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+4
29.9%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 13
OWN 45
-3
27.4%
Nick Mullens sacked by Elijah Qualls for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 16
OWN 42
+9
26.3%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 38 yds , Chico McClatcher returns for 9 yds to the Wash 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:3275% → 77%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
24.9%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Joshua PerkinsSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+19
25.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 19 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
23.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Marvin Hall for 9 yds Marvin Hall fumbled, forced by Kalan Reed, recovered by SoMis Kalan ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:1730% → 53%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
30.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 8 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
31.7%
Nick Mullens run for 5 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
31.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+15
31.6%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Wash 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
33.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 16 yds to the Wash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
33.4%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Wash 8Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
33.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the Wash 2Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
52.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18TD
2 plays · 86 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
24.9%
Myles Gaskin run for 86 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:2827% → 25%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
27.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
26.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-10
25.4%
Nick Mullens sacked by Travis Feeney for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
24.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5580% → 80%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
20.5%
Myles Gaskin run for 4 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
20.5%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Jaydon MickensSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+10
21.1%
Jake Browning run for 10 yds to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
19.7%
Myles Gaskin run for 6 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+1
19.6%
Myles Gaskin run for 1 yd to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
18.6%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Jaydon MickensSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
19.8%
Cameron Van Winkle 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1619% → 17%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
18.5%
Justice Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 13
OWN 28
0
17.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Justice HayesSimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+6
16.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
16.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 40 yds, downed at the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:4183% → 96%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
17.0%
Myles Gaskin run for 5 yds to the Wash 31Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+9
16.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Connor Griffin for 9 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
15.1%
Myles Gaskin run for 3 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-2
14.3%
Jake Browning sacked by Michael Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 41Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+15
12.6%
Browning, Jake pass incomplete to Daniels, Darrell, PENALTY SOUMISS pass interference 15 yards to the SOUMISS44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
11.7%
Chico McClatcher run for 2 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
11.7%
Myles Gaskin run for 6 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+16
11.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Marvin Hall for 16 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
10.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 7 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+13
3.9%
Myles Gaskin run for 13 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:245% → 13%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
5.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
4.9%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+7
4.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 7 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+10
4.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 10 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
4.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 14 yds to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
4.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
4.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+27
12.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 27 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 4:4792% → 98%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
8.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+11
8.3%
Myles Gaskin run for 11 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
8.1%
Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+9
6.4%
Lavon Coleman run for 9 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
5.4%
Lavon Coleman run for 3 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+18
4.1%
Myles Gaskin run for 18 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
4.1%
Myles Gaskin run for 3 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.1%
Myles Gaskin run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.1%
Jake Browning run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
4.3%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
2.2%
Cameron Van Winkle 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
1.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:26
Myles Gaskin run for 86 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
-24.4
TD · Q3 2:47
Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
+19.5
TD · Q2 1:15
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
+14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com