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SDSU

San Diego State 42 at Cincinnati 7

CIN
2015 · Hawai'i Bowl · Dec 24, 2015 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:08 · Sam Geraci punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Home team on offense−8.7Score differential−4.4Garbage-time factor−2.8Pregame prior+6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:08: Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 14 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:02: Donnel Pumphrey pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 16 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:04: Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 38 — CIN win probability +6.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:14: Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:29: Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:40CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:42SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:18CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:57SDSU 4th & 1 at CIN 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−3.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:36SDSU 4th & 9 at CIN 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:08CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:59SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 48, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:24CIN 4th & 27 at SDSU 43, down 21
    Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:06CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 38, down 21
    Close callPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:08SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:44CIN 4th & 3 at SDSU 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−7.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:23CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 42, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:45SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:08SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:02SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:14SDSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:29SDSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:04SDSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:21CIN Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5460% → 60%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
60.2%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
60.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 4 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
60.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+6
59.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 61 yds , Mikah Holder returns for 6 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:1740% → 44%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
59.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 9 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+1
59.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
59.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
59.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
58.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
58.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+9
58.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
57.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+7
57.7%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+14
55.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 14 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1056% → 56%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
55.8%
Hosey Williams run for 6 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+9
55.7%
Hosey Williams run for 9 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
55.8%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
55.7%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Malik Smith return for 4 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4746% → 47%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
53.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 13
OWN 31
-2
53.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Dakota Gordon for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+2
53.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 13
OWN 31
-5
52.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 47 yds , Shaq Washington returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:2053% → 51%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
53.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
53.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 7 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+5
53.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
52.9%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
52.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 9 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.1%
Max Morrison pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
52.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-5
53.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
51.1%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
50.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 47 yds, downed at the SDSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
16 plays · 49 yds · 6:3650% → 57%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
50.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-6 Yards) to the SDSt 7Similar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+15
50.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
49.6%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
49.2%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+2
48.7%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
47.7%
Chase Price run for 8 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
46.7%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+9
46.9%
Chase Price run for 9 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
46.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
45.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
44.9%
Christian Chapman run for 3 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
44.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
43.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Jemond HazelySimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
43.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
42.7%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
43.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:1444% → 41%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
43.9%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+6
43.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mekale McKay for 6 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.5%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
43.2%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
42.1%
Hayden Moore sacked by Calvin Munson and Kyle Kelley for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
41.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:5260% → 63%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
40.2%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-1
39.5%
Chase Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+7
39.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Chase Price for 7 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
37.9%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-3
37.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+7
37.1%
Christian Chapman run for 7 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
37.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10INT
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:4437% → 39%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
37.1%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
37.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 7 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
37.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 23 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
38.9%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Damontae Kazee return for 10 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:4265% → 79%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+33
34.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 33 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
34.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
33.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+16
20.8%
Donnel Pumphrey pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 16 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 1:2524% → 24%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
23.5%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+19
23.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 19 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
24.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 6 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-3
24.8%
Hayden Moore sacked by Kyle Kelley for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+31
23.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 31 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
25.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-12
26.1%
Hayden Moore sacked by Kyle Kelley for a loss of 12 yards to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 22
OPP 38
0
24.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tshumbi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 22
OPP 38
-5
24.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 27
OPP 43
0
23.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 yds, downed at the SDSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
18.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4222% → 21%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
21.7%
Hosey Williams run for 14 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
21.6%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
21.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 1 yd to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+3
21.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
21.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 54 yds, downed at the SDSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4883% → 86%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
16.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
15.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 11Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 7
OWN 11
-2
14.1%
Christian Chapman sacked by Mark Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 9Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
13.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:2020% → 16%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
20.2%
Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+7
19.6%
Tion Green run for 7 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
19.2%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
18.8%
Tion Green run for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+2
18.0%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 3
OPP 24
-9
15.9%
Andrew Gantz run for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:1190% → 97%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
10.3%
Chase Price run for 9 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+5
9.7%
Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
8.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+16
8.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 16 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
6.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+4
5.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
5.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 19 yds to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.7%
Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:446% → 3%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
6.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
5.6%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-5
5.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
3.1%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
3.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
2.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 43 yds, downed at the SDSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 6:4496% → 100%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
3.7%
Chase Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+6
3.5%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 5
OWN 20
-5
3.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 15Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+15
2.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Chase Price for 15 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
1.7%
Chase Price run for 9 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+6
1.1%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
0.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
0.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 5
50
+5
0.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cortez Broughton) to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
0.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
0.6%
Christian Chapman run for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+35
0.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 35 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20INT TD
8 plays · -6 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
0.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mekale McKay for 7 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-1
0.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+9
0.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Max Morrison for 9 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
0.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 1 yd to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-15
0.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 24
OPP 47
-7
0.3%
Hayden Moore sacked by Kyle Kelley for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 31
OWN 46
+43
0.2%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted for a TD Alex Barrett return for 43 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 5:280% → 0%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
0.2%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+1
0.2%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+32
0.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 47 yds to the CINCINNATI 23 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
0.2%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+7
0.2%
Tion Green run for 7 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+10
0.2%
Mike Boone run for 10 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
0.2%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+6
0.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 6 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+7
0.2%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.2%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the SDSt 2Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.2%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
0.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+26
0.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
0.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:02
Donnel Pumphrey pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 16 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-12.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:04
Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 38
+6.5
TD · Q3 5:14
Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com