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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 31 at Western Michigan 45

WMU
2015 · Popeyes Bahamas Bowl · Dec 24, 2015 · Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:34 · J. Schroeder punt for 31 yds, downed at the MTnSt 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Home team on offense+0.9Pregame prior+6.9Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:03: Jamauri Bogan run for 46 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +10.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:18: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Christian Collis for 17 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +23.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:47: Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 68 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +24.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:41: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 29 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +28.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:12: Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +25.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 6:58WMU 4th & 13 at MTSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:55MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:23WMU 4th & 10 at MTSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:04MTSU 4th & 6 at WMU 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:01MTSU 4th & 18 at MTSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−1.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:50MTSU 4th & 1 at WMU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:34WMU 4th & 8 at MTSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:14MTSU 4th & 18 at MTSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:39WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:03WMU 4th & 1 at MTSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−5.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:19MTSU 4th & 8 at WMU 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:47WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:35MTSU 4th & 3 at WMU 49, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:46WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 12, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:30WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.1%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:38MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 30, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:43MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:43WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 11:04MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:03WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:03WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:18MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:47WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:41MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:12WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−1.8
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:00WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1739% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.4%
Shane Tucker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
61.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terry Pettis for 19 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
61.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 7 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
61.2%
Shane Tucker run for 2 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+46
60.8%
Richie James run for 46 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:5961% → 62%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
60.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Kendrick Roberts for 9 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
60.8%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+62
61.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 62 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3939% → 41%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Austin GrammerSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
61.3%
Shane Tucker run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
61.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 18 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
61.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 4 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-5
60.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Carlos Johnson) to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+44
59.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 44 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:0660% → 58%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
60.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 7 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
60.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
59.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+34
59.6%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Corey Davis for 34 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
59.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
59.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jarvion Franklin) to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
59.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q1 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+3
58.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 3 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
58.0%
Andrew Haldeman 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0342% → 42%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
57.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
57.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jordan Parker for 1 yd to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
57.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Terry PettisSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
58.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 35 yds, downed at the WMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:3258% → 59%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
58.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 12 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
58.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
58.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-1
58.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
57.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
58.6%
Andrew Haldeman 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:1941% → 46%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
58.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 48 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+23
56.7%
Brent Stockstill run for 23 yds to the WMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
56.4%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 5Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
56.1%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 6Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
56.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q1 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
53.6%
Cody Clark 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 1:0154% → 61%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
54.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 5 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+80
60.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 80 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:5940% → 39%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
58.8%
Shane Tucker run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
59.0%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
58.8%
Shane Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-1
59.2%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Cleveland Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-6
60.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 18
OWN 29
+4
60.8%
Matt Bonadies punt for 48 yds , Daniel Braverman returns for 4 yds to the WMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
60.7%
Zach Terrell pass intercepted Justin Akins return for no gain to the WMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0244% → 43%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
56.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 6 yds to the WMich 13Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+6
56.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 6 yds to the WMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
56.2%
Shane Tucker run for 4 yds to the WMich 3Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
56.1%
Shane Tucker run for 1 yd to the WMich 2Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
56.8%
Brent Stockstill run for 1 yd to the WMich 1Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.3%
Shane Tucker run for no gain to the WMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:1660% → 60%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
60.1%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Willie Beavers) to the WMich 1Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
60.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the WMich 2Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+41
59.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 41 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
62.4%
Tom Flacco run for 6 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+4
62.6%
Tom Flacco run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
62.8%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
62.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
62.1%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
60.0%
J. Schroeder punt for 31 yds, downed at the MTnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2043% → 41%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
57.2%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+22
57.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Christian Collis for 32 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Terry Pettis) to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-9
56.1%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Nathan Braster and Grant DePalma for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+1
58.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jordan Parker for 1 yd to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
58.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3560% → 58%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
60.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
59.9%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+6
58.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 6 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 2:39
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
58.2%
J. Schroeder punt for 36 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for no gain to the MTnSt 36 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Donnie Ernsberger) to the MTnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
53.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jordan Parker for 16 yds Jordan Parker fumbled, forced by Darius Phillips, recovered by WMich Darius Phillips , return for 1 yd to the WMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16END OF HALF
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:2661% → 56%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
61.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 6 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-10
62.1%
Terrell, Zach pass incomplete to Davis, Corey, PENALTY WESTMICH holding (Moton, Taylor) 10 yards to the WESTMICH35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+20
59.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 20 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
62.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Willie Beavers) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 15
50
-1
61.1%
Zach Terrell sacked by Patrick McNeil for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+7
58.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-4
59.9%
Zach Terrell sacked by Trey Wafford for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 48
-5
56.2%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:3561% → 73%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
60.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+7
62.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
62.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 5
50
+3
63.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
62.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+46
72.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 46 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:4429% → 28%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
70.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 2 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
71.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 11 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
70.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 6 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
69.1%
Shane Tucker run for 6 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
69.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Jaylen Hunter) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 15
50
+7
70.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 7 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
69.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
69.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
72.4%
Matt Bonadies punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3275% → 76%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
75.2%
Zach Terrell run for 9 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
77.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
77.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 38 Jarvion Franklin fumbled, recovered by WMichSimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
78.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
77.8%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+5
76.3%
J. Schroeder punt for 35 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 5 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1228% → 27%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
72.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Austin Grammer for 9 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
70.7%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
71.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Rod DucksworthSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
72.3%
Shane Tucker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+6
73.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for 6 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
72.8%
Matt Bonadies punt for 46 yds, downed at the WMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:4977% → 79%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
77.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the WMich 4Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 9
OWN 4
-2
77.1%
Bogan, Jamauri rush for 33 yards to the WESTMICH37, PENALTY WESTMICH holding (Keenoy, John) 2 yards to the WESTMICH2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 11
OWN 2
-1
78.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 1Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 12
OWN 1
+11
77.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 11 yds to the WMich 12Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
79.3%
J. Schroeder punt for 20 yds, downed at the WMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:2829% → 52%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
71.0%
Richie James run for 15 yds to the WMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
47.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Christian Collis for 17 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1359% → 84%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jeremiah Mullinax for 8 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
58.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 14:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
57.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
60.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WMich Zach TerrellSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+68
84.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 68 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:0621% → 54%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+31
79.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 31 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
76.8%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
76.7%
Brent Stockstill run for 4 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+3
76.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 3 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
74.9%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the WMich 29Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
46.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 29 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 3:1458% → 91%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
57.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+61
57.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 61 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
65.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+12
65.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jeremiah Mullinax for 12 yds to the MTnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
64.7%
Donnie Ernsberger run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26INT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2515% → 13%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Maurquice Shakir) to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+29
86.7%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted Rontavious Atkins return for 29 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4791% → 97%
Q4 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
91.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:046% → 4%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
93.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
94.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-9
95.0%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Keion Adams for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
95.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Rod DucksworthSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 29END OF GAME
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:3897% → 99%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
97.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+2
97.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
97.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
98.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+7
98.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:41
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 29 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
-28.3
TD · Q4 6:12
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
+25.9
TD · Q4 12:47
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 68 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
+24.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com