Try the model
GASO

Georgia Southern 58 at Bowling Green 27

BGSU
2015 · GoDaddy Bowl · Dec 23, 2015 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:20 · Ryan Nowicki punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Clint Stephens at the BwGrn 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense−1.0Pregame prior+18.8Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:27: Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 31 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +10.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:36: Travis Greene run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:28: Favian Upshaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +18.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:55: Favian Upshaw run for 80 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +22.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:51: Matt Breida run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +15.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 6
  1. Q1 13:26BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:29BGSU 4th & 1 at GASO 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−0.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:20GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:22BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:15GASO 4th & 9 at BGSU 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:50GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:19GASO 4th & 2 at BGSU 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:42BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:27GASO 4th & 5 at BGSU 31, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:06BGSU 4th & 9 at GASO 21, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−11.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:50BGSU 4th & 15 at BGSU 49, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:52GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 30, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:24BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:35BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 34, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:52GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:29BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:33BGSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:42BGSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:53GASO Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:27GASO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:36BGSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:28GASO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:55GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:51GASO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:55GASO Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:25GASO Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:2372% → 72%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
72.3%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
72.3%
Matt Johnson run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 14:29
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
72.3%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
72.3%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
72.2%
Travis Greene run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
72.2%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
72.1%
Joseph Davidson punt for 32 yds, downed at the GeoSo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:2628% → 32%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
72.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
71.9%
Derek Keaton run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
50
-2
71.6%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+8
71.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+17
71.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Wesley Fields for 17 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
70.9%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+18
70.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
70.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.5%
LA Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1669% → 71%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.1%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
69.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 19 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
69.3%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
69.1%
Ronnie Moore run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
69.3%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+45
70.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 45 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 0
OPP 3
0
70.6%
Matt Dobson return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5530% → 30%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
69.8%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
69.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+2
69.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
69.6%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Clint Stephens at the BwGrn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5369% → 68%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
69.1%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+2
69.0%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+12
68.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 12 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
68.8%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
68.7%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
68.2%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+16
67.8%
Joseph Davidson punt for 38 yds , Derek Keaton returns for 16 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5632% → 32%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
67.9%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Keigan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
67.9%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
67.5%
Favian Upshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 9
OPP 41
+36
68.3%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 41 yds for a touchback GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2968% → 72%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
68.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Teo Redding for 24 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
69.2%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+14
69.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 14 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
69.7%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
69.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+15
69.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie Moore for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tay Hicklin) to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
72.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 15 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:3029% → 29%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
70.9%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+11
71.1%
Wesley Fields run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+2
70.9%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
70.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Jeremiah Culbreth) to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+8
70.8%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
70.3%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-1
70.2%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+21
70.9%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 38 yds , Clint Stephens returns for 21 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9TD
1 play · 51 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
78.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 51 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3724% → 31%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.1%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+36
76.3%
Matt Breida run for 36 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
75.3%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
74.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+1
76.8%
LA Ramsby run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+3
77.7%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
69.0%
Wesley Fields run for 26 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0072% → 70%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
71.7%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
70.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
70.4%
Joseph Davidson punt for 73 yds, downed at the GeoSo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 5:0828% → 41%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
72.5%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+2
72.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+8
72.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
71.8%
Ellison, Kevin rush for 6 yards to the GASOUTHERN25, PENALTY BOWLGREEN offside (Mack, Alfonso) 5 yards to the GASOUTHERN24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 5
OWN 24
+9
71.1%
Matt Breida run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
71.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Personal Foul (Trenton Greene) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
50
-3
69.4%
LA Ramsby run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
70.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Montay CrockettSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+17
71.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 17 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
69.3%
LA Ramsby run for no gain to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
68.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
68.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Myles CampbellSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+31
58.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 31 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:3962% → 75%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
61.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 7 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
63.9%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+52
62.8%
Travis Greene run for 52 yds to the GeoSo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
66.1%
Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
74.8%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
71.3%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:2730% → 52%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.1%
Favian Upshaw run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
69.4%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
69.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSo 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Favian UpshawSimilar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+18
70.2%
Favian Upshaw run for 18 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
67.4%
Favian Upshaw run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
67.0%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
66.4%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+4
68.1%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
67.6%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+17
67.7%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Keigan Williams for 17 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
66.2%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 28 Favian Upshaw fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Favian UpshawSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+7
68.3%
Favian Upshaw run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+18
67.2%
Wesley Fields run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
48.4%
Favian Upshaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:1155% → 54%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
55.6%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
54.5%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
55.3%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
58.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
56.6%
Johnson, Matt pass incomplete to Moore, Ronnie, PENALTY GASOUTHERN pass interference (Glover, Antonio) 15 yards to the GASOUTHERN45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN.Similar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
59.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 23 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
59.9%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-9
59.7%
Matt Johnson sacked by Ironhead Gallon for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 16
OPP 28
+7
54.1%
Travis Greene run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+1
54.1%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
31.7%
Favian Upshaw run for 80 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:3131% → 30%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
30.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Scott Miller for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-6
29.9%
Matt Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 14 Matt Johnson fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Nardo GovanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:1573% → 88%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
27.1%
Favian Upshaw run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.6%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · -15 yds · 1:0218% → 15%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
18.0%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derek Lee) to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 17
OWN 18
-9
17.7%
Johnson, Matt pass complete to Lewis, Roger for 40 yards to the GASOUTHERN42, PENALTY BOWLGREEN holding (Lee, Derek) 9 yards to the BOWLGREEN9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 26
OWN 9
+4
16.7%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 22
OWN 13
-3
15.3%
Matt Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 10 Matt Johnson fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Nardo GovanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3589% → 97%
Q3 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
10.8%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
3.4%
Favian Upshaw run for 8 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:005% → 4%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+25
4.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 25 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
5.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 4 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
4.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+8
4.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 8 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
4.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
4.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for no gain to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-5
4.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Alex Huettel) to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 15
OWN 49
0
3.9%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
3.8%
Joseph Davidson punt for 47 yds, downed at the GeoSo 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:4198% → 99%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+17
2.4%
LA Ramsby run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Shannon Smith) to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
2.1%
LA Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
1.8%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
1.8%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+16
1.5%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 46 yds , Ronnie Moore returns for 16 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:223% → 3%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
2.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Robbie RhodesSimilar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
2.8%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
2.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Chris GallonSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
2.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:5299% → 100%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
1.4%
Favian Upshaw run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
1.3%
Breida, Matt rush for 4 yards to the GASOUTHERN36, PENALTY BOWLGREEN offside 5 yards to the GASOUTHERN37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 5
OWN 37
0
1.1%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
1.0%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+15
0.9%
LA Ramsby run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
0.7%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+42
0.2%
Favian Upshaw run for 42 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
Travis Greene run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
0.1%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.1%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the BwGrn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 4 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
0.1%
Chaz Thornton run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-6
0.1%
Chaz Thornton run for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+13
0.1%
Favian Upshaw run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 14
OPP 28
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:55
Favian Upshaw run for 80 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
-22.3
TD · Q3 7:28
Favian Upshaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
-18.8
TD · Q3 1:51
Matt Breida run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
-15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com