Try the model
AKR

Akron 23 at Utah State 21

USU
2015 · Famous Idaho Potato Bowl · Dec 22, 2015 · Albertsons Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:10 · Aaron Dalton punt for 69 yds, downed at the Akron 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Home team on offense−1.2Pregame prior+16.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:32: Kent Myers pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 9 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +12.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Robert Stein 29 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +13.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:41: Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 19 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +18.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:43: Donnell Alexander run for 2 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +21.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:12: Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 2 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +41.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8AKR made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:29AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:30USU 4th & 15 at USU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:10USU 4th & 8 at USU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:11AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:51USU 4th & 13 at AKR 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    63.2%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:03AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 40, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:18USU 4th & 9 at USU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:54AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:27USU 4th & 8 at AKR 18, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:53AKR 4th & 9 at USU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:53AKR 4th & 22 at AKR 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−4.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:40AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:45USU 4th & 17 at USU 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−5.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:25AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53USU 4th & 16 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−3.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:15AKR 4th & 7 at USU 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−10.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:50USU 4th & 5 at AKR 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−1.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:42AKR 4th & 1 at USU 36, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−2.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−2.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:06AKR 4th & 12 at USU 45, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.0 ptsPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−6.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:38AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:32USU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:41USU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:43AKR Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:12USU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1632% → 32%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
68.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 10 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.0%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Imani DavisSimilar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
67.9%
Conor Hundley run for 6 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
67.8%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Imani DavisSimilar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+15
67.9%
Zach Paul punt for 56 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 15 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3668% → 67%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
67.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 3 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
67.8%
Devante Mays run for no gain to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-8
67.6%
Chuckie Keeton sacked by Jatavis Brown and Cody Grice for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 13Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 15
OWN 13
0
67.4%
Aaron Dalton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:4733% → 35%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
67.3%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Imani Davis, broken up by Bryant HayesSimilar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+42
67.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 42 yds to the UthSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
65.5%
Tyrell Goodman pass complete to Thomas Woodson for 14 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2066% → 65%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
66.0%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Kennedy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
65.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-1
65.6%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
65.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 69 yds, downed at the Akron 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5035% → 35%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
65.3%
Conor Hundley run for 2 yds to the Akron 5Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 5
-1
64.8%
Conor Hundley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 4Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+2
64.6%
Conor Hundley run for 2 yds to the Akron 6Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 7
OWN 6
-4
64.6%
Zach Paul punt for 31 yds , Hunter Sharp returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1265% → 63%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
65.1%
Kent Myers run for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 46Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+2
64.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 2 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 13
OPP 44
0
63.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to LaJuan HuntSimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
63.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 43 yds, downed at the Akron 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 4:3837% → 40%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
63.4%
Thomas Woodson run for 1 yd to the Akron 2Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+5
63.1%
Donnell Alexander run for 5 yds to the Akron 7Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+14
63.0%
Thomas Woodson run for 14 yds to the Akron 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
62.1%
Thomas Woodson run for 10 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
61.5%
Donnell Alexander run for 1 yd to the Akron 32Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
61.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 4 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
60.3%
Donnell Alexander run for 4 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
60.0%
Zach Paul punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3760% → 59%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
60.4%
Devante Mays run for 1 yd to the UthSt 16Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
60.2%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
59.6%
Chuckie Keeton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
59.3%
Aaron Dalton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1041% → 42%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
58.6%
Conor Hundley run for 2 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
58.5%
Thomas Woodson pass intercepted Jalen Davis return for 4 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:5062% → 62%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
61.6%
Devante Mays run for 9 yds to the UTAHST 47 UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Hunter Sharp) to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 11
OWN 43
-6
60.2%
Chuckie Keeton run for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 17
OWN 37
+15
59.2%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 15 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+11
60.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 11 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
60.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 16 yds to the Akron 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
61.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass intercepted Kris Givens return for no gain to the Akron 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4641% → 41%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
58.7%
Donnell Alexander run for 2 yds to the Akron 8Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 8
-1
58.5%
Donnell Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 7Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 9
OWN 7
-2
58.7%
Thomas Woodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 5Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 11
OWN 5
+20
58.9%
Zach Paul punt for 46 yds , Hunter Sharp returns for 20 yds to the Akron 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1561% → 57%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
60.7%
Devante Mays run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 32Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+12
60.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 12 yds to the Akron 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
60.4%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the Akron 19Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+1
59.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the Akron 18Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
58.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Brandon Swindall, broken up by Kris GivensSimilar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 8
OPP 18
-7
56.9%
DJ Nelson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:2245% → 53%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 7 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
52.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 4 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
52.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 7 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+15
51.2%
Woodson, Thomas pass incomplete to Lane, Jerome, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Davis, Jalen) 15 yards to the UTAHST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AKRON.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
50.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 14 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
49.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 7 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+2
49.4%
Conor Hundley run for 2 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
49.5%
Cody Grice run for 2 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
48.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Imani DavisSimilar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-7
48.5%
Thomas Woodson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 14 AKRON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+3
48.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 3 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 14
OPP 21
+5
48.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kyler Fackrell) to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
47.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q2 2:53
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
47.4%
Robert Stein 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:0447% → 63%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+61
47.0%
Devante Mays run for 61 yds to the Akron 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
50.1%
Devante Mays run for 1 yd to the Akron 9Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
62.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 9 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · -12 yds · 0:3044% → 43%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
56.2%
AKRON Penalty, Delay of Game (Thomas Woodson) to the Akron 21Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
56.1%
Conor Hundley run for no gain to the Akron 21Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+2
55.5%
Thomas Woodson run for 2 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 13
OWN 23
-9
56.4%
Thomas Woodson sacked by David Moala and Jentz Painter for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 14Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 22
OWN 14
0
57.4%
Zach Paul punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:4359% → 57%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
58.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 2
50
0
59.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew RodriguezSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 2
50
+7
58.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 7 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
59.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 12 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
60.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 3 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+56
57.0%
Kent Myers sacked by Jatavis Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 12 Kent Myers fumbled, forced by Jatavis Brown, recovered by Akron Rodney Coe , return for 0 yards , return for 56 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+29
43.3%
Robert Stein 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:0553% → 70%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
52.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 13 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
54.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 8 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
55.4%
Devante Mays run for 4 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
55.0%
Kent Myers sacked by Dylan Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 46 Kent Myers fumbled, forced by Dylan Evans, recovered by UthSt Marquan Ellison , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 17
OPP 46
0
52.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Kennedy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+27
51.3%
Kent Myers run for 27 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
70.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 19 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5635% → 33%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
64.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Imani DavisSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
65.3%
Conor Hundley run for 2 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
66.2%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
67.3%
Zach Paul punt for 57 yds, downed at the UthSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:5066% → 67%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+18
65.8%
Devante Mays run for 18 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
66.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
50
-5
69.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Dalton Forsythe) to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 15
OWN 45
-6
67.3%
Kent Myers sacked by Darryl Monroe for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 21
OWN 39
+1
66.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 1 yd Andrew Rodriguez fumbled, recovered by Akron John SenterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:5038% → 62%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
61.9%
Thomas Woodson run for 5 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
60.3%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Imani DavisSimilar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+10
62.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 10 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
60.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 24 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.9%
Thomas Woodson run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
59.7%
Donnell Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 2Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
61.1%
Woodson, Thomas pass incomplete to Lane, Jerome, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Davis, Jalen) 0 yards to the UTAHST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AKRON.Similar
Q3 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
59.5%
Cody Grice run for no gain to the UthSt 2Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.9%
Donnell Alexander run for 2 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:4445% → 41%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
45.4%
Sharp, Hunter rush for 1 yard to the UTAHST25, PENALTY UTAHST holding (Simonich, Jake) 10 yards to the UTAHST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+6
44.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 6 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 14
OWN 20
0
43.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+2
42.2%
Kent Myers run for 2 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 12
OWN 22
-5
41.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 17Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
40.7%
Aaron Dalton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1563% → 60%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
36.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
36.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
37.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
40.4%
Zach Paul punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:2543% → 40%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
43.1%
Devante Mays run for 11 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
43.0%
Devante Mays run for 5 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+10
43.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 10 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
43.5%
Devante Mays run for 9 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
46.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 1 yd to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
45.9%
Kent Myers run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line Kent Myers fumbled, recovered by UthSt Kent Myers , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 6
50
+6
46.6%
Devante Mays run for 6 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
46.9%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
46.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-6
43.6%
Kent Myers sacked by Cody Grice for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 16
50
0
39.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 6:2564% → 82%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
36.2%
Conor Hundley run for 8 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
33.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
35.2%
Thomas Woodson run for 3 yds to the Akron 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
33.6%
Conor Hundley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 25Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
33.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Andrew PrattSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+21
34.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 21 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
28.9%
Conor Hundley run for 3 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+7
28.2%
Thomas Woodson run for 7 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
25.3%
Thomas Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+13
25.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 13 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
24.0%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Imani DavisSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
24.0%
Conor Hundley run for 1 yd to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+2
24.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 2 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
17.6%
Robert Stein 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:1220% → 17%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
19.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 10 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
20.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 1 yd to the UthSt 46Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+9
19.6%
Keeton, Chuckie pass incomplete to Raymond, Dax, PENALTY AKRON pass interference (Evans, Dylan) 9 yards to the AKRON45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
21.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
20.4%
Kent Myers run for 3 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+2
18.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
16.6%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Brandon Swindall for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4987% → 94%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
12.6%
Thomas Woodson run for 4 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+11
12.0%
Donnell Alexander run for 11 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
11.0%
Thomas Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 46Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
10.7%
Donnell Alexander run for no gain to the UthSt 46Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+10
8.8%
Thomas Woodson run for 10 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
5.9%
Cody Grice run for no gain to the UthSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 1:198% → 49%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
7.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 2 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
7.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+15
7.1%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 15 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
7.6%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 5 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
7.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+13
7.4%
Chuckie Keeton run for 13 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
9.6%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Dax Raymond for 22 yds to the Akron 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
9.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Braelon RobertsSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
9.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Wyatt Houston, broken up by Bryce CheekSimilar
Q4 1:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
8.0%
Keeton, Chuckie pass incomplete to Rodriguez, Andrew, PENALTY AKRON pass interference (Senter, John) 5 yards to the AKRON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q4 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 2 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:0187% → 93%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
13.3%
Conor Hundley run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 46Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+5
13.2%
Conor Hundley run for 5 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+1
11.9%
Thomas Woodson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 7
OPP 40
-5
6.5%
AKRON Penalty, Delay of Game (Thomas Woodson) to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
6.8%
Zach Paul punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
13.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 8 yds to the UthSt 8 lat. to Aaron Wade for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 8 lat. to Chasen Andersen for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:12
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 2 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
+41.4
TD · Q3 5:43
Donnell Alexander run for 2 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
-21.5
TD · Q3 12:41
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 19 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
+18.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com