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WKU

Western Kentucky 45 at South Florida 35

USF
2015 · Miami Beach Bowl · Dec 21, 2015 · Marlins Park
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:36 · Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Tim Gorski
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Home team on offense−0.5Pregame prior−10.3Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:43: Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 69 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK) — WKU win probability +16.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:55: D'Ernest Johnson pass complete to Tyre McCants for 34 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +21.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 1:56: Nacarius Fant run for 9 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK) — WKU win probability +13.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:00: Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +23.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 5:09: Anthony Wales run for 42 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK) — WKU win probability +20.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 9 of 13WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:25WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28USF 4th & 1 at USF 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:36WKU 4th & 2 at USF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.1%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:09USF 4th & 4 at USF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:15WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:39WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:45WKU 4th & 1 at USF 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−1.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:16WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:55USF 4th & 8 at USF 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:02USF 4th & 15 at USF 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:06USF 4th & 1 at USF 12, up 7
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00WKU 4th & 3 at USF 21, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%−0.8
    74% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−8.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:23USF 4th & 10 at WKU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−6.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:47USF 4th & 9 at USF 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:34USF 4th & 1 at USF 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.5%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:11USF 4th & 1 at USF 21, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:09WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 27, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:41USF 4th & 6 at WKU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−3.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−1.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:58USF 4th & 20 at WKU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−6.6
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−5.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:58USF 4th & 8 at USF 33, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:09USF 4th & 4 at WKU 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−1.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:34WKU 4th & 11 at WKU 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:21USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:18USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:17WKU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:43WKU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:46WKU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:55USF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:56WKU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:05WKU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:53USF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:00USF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:09WKU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:1661% → 60%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
38.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 5 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
39.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 1 yd to the WKent 26Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
39.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 6 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
39.3%
Brandon Doughty run for no gain to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
39.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 27Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 15
OWN 27
0
39.7%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
39.9%
Jake Collins punt for 48 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for no gain to the SFla 21 Tajee Fullwood fumbled, recovered by SFla Tajee FullwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4440% → 40%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
39.8%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
40.0%
Rodney Adams run for 4 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
40.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
39.9%
Brent Gordon punt for 30 yds, downed at the WKent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:4360% → 60%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
39.8%
Anthony Wales run for 8 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+23
39.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 23 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
39.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Nacarius FantSimilar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
39.7%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Jared DangerfieldSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+8
40.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 8 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 2
OPP 21
0
40.3%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Tim GorskiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2141% → 41%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
40.7%
Marlon Mack run for 15 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
41.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
41.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
41.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
41.0%
Brent Gordon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the WKent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4359% → 58%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
41.0%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
41.1%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
41.4%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+3
41.8%
Jake Collins punt for 45 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 3 yds to the SFla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:2942% → 47%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
41.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 8 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
42.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-5
42.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+24
41.6%
Marlon Mack run for 24 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
42.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 22 yds to the WKent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
43.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 1 yd to the WKent 12Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
46.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7INT
16 plays · 41 yds · 5:2454% → 51%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
46.0%
D'Andre Ferby run for 3 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
46.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 6 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
46.5%
D'Andre Ferby run for no gain to the WKent 29Similar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+5
47.2%
D'Andre Ferby run for 5 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
46.7%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
47.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 7 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+6
46.3%
Anthony Wales run for 6 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
46.4%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
46.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 9 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
46.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for no gain to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+6
47.7%
D'Andre Ferby run for 6 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
47.2%
Anthony Wales run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-5
47.5%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+5
48.3%
D'Andre Ferby run for 5 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+24
48.7%
Brandon Doughty pass intercepted Nigel Harris return for 24 yds to the WKent 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:5551% → 60%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
51.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
51.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
51.7%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-5
52.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Brynjar Gudmundsson) to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+1
51.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the WKent 39Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+5
51.2%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+34
60.4%
Rodney Adams run for 34 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4542% → 39%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
57.9%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
58.3%
Anthony Wales run for 6 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
58.9%
Anthony Wales run for 1 yd to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
59.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 5 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+2
60.4%
Brandon Doughty run for 2 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
61.0%
Jake Collins punt for 58 yds, downed at the SFla 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:1363% → 63%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
62.8%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-4
62.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marlon Mack) to the SFla 4Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+25
63.6%
Marlon Mack run for 25 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
63.1%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-1
64.0%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
63.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
63.2%
Brent Gordon punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the WKent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:1836% → 48%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+53
63.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 53 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
51.7%
Anthony Wales run for 13 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0457% → 56%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
57.2%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
56.9%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
56.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
55.6%
Brent Gordon punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the WKent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 3:1844% → 42%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
56.4%
Anthony Wales run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 25Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+13
57.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 13 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
56.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 28 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
53.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 6 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+10
53.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 10 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
53.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 12 yds to the SFla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
53.7%
D'Andre Ferby run for no gain to the SFla 6Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
53.8%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Forrest Lamp) to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
-7
54.9%
Brandon Doughty sacked by Johnny Ward for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 28
-10
56.6%
Brandon Doughty sacked by Eric Lee for a loss of 10 yards to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 38
0
58.5%
Jake Collins punt for 35 yds, downed at the SFla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:2758% → 58%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
58.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-1
57.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sean Price) to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+1
58.1%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 3Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+9
59.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
58.4%
Brent Gordon punt for 43 yds , Nacarius Fant returns for no gain to the WKent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15END OF HALF
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:5840% → 46%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
60.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 5
50
+11
58.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 11 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
57.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 11 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
55.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Devin Scott for 3 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+4
57.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
57.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
54.4%
Garrett Schwettman 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:2154% → 59%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
54.1%
Marlon Mack run for 11 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.6%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
56.4%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
56.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 17 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
58.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
59.0%
Marlon Mack run for 10 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
59.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
59.1%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+5
58.0%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ge'Monee Brown) to the WKent 18Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-10
58.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kofi Amichia) to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+3
59.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
59.2%
Emilio Nadelman 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2942% → 60%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.7%
Anthony Wales run for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
56.5%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
40.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 69 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3142% → 40%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
41.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
41.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
40.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
39.5%
Brent Gordon punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the WKent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:4661% → 74%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
39.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 9 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
37.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for 3 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
25.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 55 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 2:4126% → 47%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
25.8%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 9Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+28
25.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 28 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
26.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 9 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
26.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
25.9%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
24.0%
Rodney Adams run for 2 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
25.7%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Roughing Passer (Omarius Bryant) to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
26.3%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+34
47.3%
D'Ernest Johnson pass complete to Tyre McCants for 34 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:4462% → 81%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
38.1%
Nacarius Fant pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
39.0%
Anthony Wales run for 4 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+11
38.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 11 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
36.0%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Jared Dangerfield for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Demetrius Hill) to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
35.4%
Antwane Grant run for 6 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+8
33.3%
D'Andre Ferby run for 8 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
33.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 16 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
19.4%
Nacarius Fant run for 9 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2821% → 19%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
21.2%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 2
OWN 20
0
21.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
20.1%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+36
19.1%
Brent Gordon punt for 41 yds , Nacarius Fant returns for 36 yds to the SFla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23TD
1 play · 26 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
5.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 26 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:0811% → 23%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+29
11.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 29 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
22.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 53 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1777% → 77%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
22.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 15Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 14
OWN 15
0
23.0%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+12
23.8%
Anthony Wales run for 12 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+3
23.1%
Jake Collins punt for 51 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 3 yds to the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0019% → 47%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
19.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 11 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
19.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 10 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
20.8%
Rodney Adams run for 2 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+41
19.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 41 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
23.0%
Rodney Adams run for 3 yds to the WKent 8Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
47.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27INT
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:5067% → 72%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
33.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 18 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
30.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 14 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
28.7%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+13
28.3%
Brandon Doughty pass intercepted Eric Lee return for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28MISSED FG
12 plays · 14 yds · 2:4842% → 37%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
50
+3
42.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
42.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
41.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+9
38.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
42.3%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 39Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+13
40.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 13 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
43.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to A.J. Legree for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
43.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon PopeSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 11
OPP 27
-9
40.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brynjar Gudmundsson) to the WKent 36Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 20
OPP 36
0
36.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 20
OPP 36
+54
36.6%
Emilio Nadelman 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 29TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:3773% → 93%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
27.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 22 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
7.2%
Anthony Wales run for 42 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:5010% → 7%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
9.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to A.J. LegreeSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+2
8.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+22
8.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 22 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
10.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
10.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
9.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to A.J. LegreeSimilar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
6.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to A.J. LegreeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 31PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 2:2494% → 97%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
5.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 4 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
4.7%
D'Andre Ferby run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
50
-2
4.3%
D'Andre Ferby run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 48Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+7
3.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for 7 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-5
3.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Taywan Taylor) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 10
50
+4
3.2%
D'Andre Ferby run for 4 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 6
OPP 46
-5
3.2%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Delay of Game (Brandon Doughty) to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
3.4%
Jake Collins punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:233% → 5%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
3.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 16 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
3.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 26 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
4.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to A.J. Legree for 12 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:00
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
+23.9
TD · Q3 4:55
D'Ernest Johnson pass complete to Tyre McCants for 34 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
+21
TD · Q4 5:09
Anthony Wales run for 42 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
-20
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com