Try the model
OHIO

Ohio 29 at App State 31

APP
2015 · Raycom Media Camellia Bowl · Dec 19, 2015 · Cramton Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:38 · Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 39 yds, downed at the AppSt 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+7.6Home team on offense−28.5Score differential−13.5Garbage-time factor−7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 13:52: Barrett Burns 17 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick) — APP win probability +14.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:10: Marcus Cox 26 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick) — APP win probability +30.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q4 11:56: Barrett Burns 8 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick) — APP win probability +20.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:47: Josiah Yazdani 21 Yd Field Goal — OHIO win probability +33.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Zach Matics 23 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +61.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 7OHIO made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:53OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:29APP 4th & 17 at OHIO 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:48OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:04OHIO 4th & 18 at OHIO 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:58APP 4th & 10 at OHIO 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:38OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:28APP 4th & 7 at APP 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:56OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:27APP 4th & 5 at OHIO 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:31OHIO 4th & 11 at APP 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:22APP 4th & 11 at APP 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:56APP 4th & 11 at APP 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:28APP 4th & 19 at APP 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−4.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:38OHIO 4th & 9 at APP 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:10OHIO 4th & 9 at APP 34, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.1 ptsPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−4.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:59OHIO 4th & 1 at APP 46, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−6.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−8.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:47OHIO 4th & 1 at APP 4, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−12.3
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−33.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:17APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:23OHIO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:20OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:06OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:52APP Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:10APP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:56APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5226% → 26%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
73.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
73.9%
JD Sprague pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+1
73.9%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 1 yd to the Ohio 33Similar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
73.8%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Latrell Gibbs at the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:2474% → 73%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
73.8%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
73.8%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
73.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 5 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
73.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 24 yds to the Ohio 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
73.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+10
73.8%
Marcus Cox run for 10 yds to the Ohio 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-6
73.7%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ohio 21Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 16
OPP 21
0
73.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 16
OPP 21
-1
73.2%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 22Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+39
72.8%
Zach Matics 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3627% → 27%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
72.8%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Daz'mond PattersonSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
72.8%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 1 yd to the Ohio 23Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
72.8%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Keith HeitzmanSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+28
72.9%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Latrell Gibbs at the APPALCHAN 34 OHIO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the AppSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:3173% → 75%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
73.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 10 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
73.2%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+18
73.0%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jovon Johnson) to the Ohio 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
75.3%
Taylor Lamb 21 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:1326% → 25%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
74.0%
JD Sprague sacked by Eric Boggs for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 15
OPP 49
-5
74.4%
JD Sprague sacked by Kennan Gilchrist for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 46Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+2
74.8%
JD Sprague pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 2 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 18
OWN 48
0
75.1%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6MISSED FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:0675% → 75%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+55
74.9%
Jalin Moore run for 55 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
75.8%
Taylor Lamb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 27Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+2
75.9%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
75.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
75.1%
Zach Matics 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2025% → 25%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
74.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
74.6%
JD Sprague pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
75.1%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Latrell Gibbs at the AppSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5775% → 75%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
75.1%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-5
75.6%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Jovon Johnson and Chad Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+15
74.6%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Barbour, Jaylan, PENALTY OHIO pass interference 15 yards to the APPALCHAN46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APPALCHAN.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
76.0%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+12
75.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 12 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
75.8%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the Ohio 46Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-5
75.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
74.7%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:3225% → 25%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
74.8%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+12
74.9%
JD Sprague pass complete to Papi White for 12 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.6%
Daz'mond Patterson run for no gain to the Ohio 31Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
74.8%
JD Sprague pass complete to Daz'mond Patterson for 11 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
74.1%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 1 yd to the Ohio 43Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
74.2%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+5
74.6%
JD Sprague pass complete to Daz'mond Patterson for 5 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
74.8%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Latrell Gibbs at the AppSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:2975% → 77%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
75.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
75.2%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+7
75.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 7 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
75.8%
Marcus Cox run for 25 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
77.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 6 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+2
77.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-3
77.3%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 38Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+2
77.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 2 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:5624% → 28%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
76.1%
Sprague, JD rush for 3 yards to the OHIO39, PENALTY OHIO holding 10 yards to the OHIO26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+1
76.8%
Papi White run for 1 yd to the Ohio 27Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+3
77.1%
JD Sprague run for 3 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+18
77.6%
JD Sprague run for 18 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
75.3%
Papi White run for 10 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
74.9%
JD Sprague run for 6 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+8
74.8%
Papi White run for 8 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
73.9%
JD Sprague pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 10 yds to the AppSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
73.8%
Papi White run for 3 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-7
73.7%
Papi White run for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+3
76.2%
JD Sprague pass complete to Daz'mond Patterson for 3 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
72.1%
Josiah Yazdani 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12INT TD
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0872% → 62%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
72.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Taylor Lamb) to the AppSt 10Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+20
62.1%
Quentin Poling 20 Yd Interception Return (Josiah Yazdani Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:4462% → 61%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.4%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
62.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaylan Barbour for 10 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
62.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-14
61.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the AppSt 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ohio Tony PorterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:1944% → 54%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
55.8%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 16 yds to the AppSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.9%
A.J. Ouellette 7 Yd Run (Josiah Yazdani Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
48.1%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2547% → 43%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.5%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
46.5%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
44.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
42.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Doug Middleton) to the AppSt 24Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
42.6%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:0655% → 57%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
45.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+7
43.5%
JD Sprague pass complete to Brendan Cope for 7 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
42.4%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
42.6%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+6
43.1%
JD Sprague run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3542% → 39%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-7
42.4%
Taylor Lamb sacked by TEAM for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 9 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Taylor Lamb) to the AppSt 9Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 17
OWN 9
+2
41.4%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 15
OWN 11
+4
39.9%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
38.5%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:3160% → 61%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
50
+39
40.1%
JD Sprague pass complete to Brendan Cope for 39 yds to the AppSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+20
39.0%
Daz'mond Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 33 Daz'mond Patterson fumbled, forced by Ronald Blair, recovered by AppSt Ronald Blair , return for 20 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1941% → 27%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
40.8%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
40.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Levi DuffieldSimilar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+9
39.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 9 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-45
27.4%
Jovon Johnson 45 Yd Fumble Return (Josiah Yazdani Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:2325% → 23%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
25.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-10
24.4%
Cox, Marcus rush for 46 yards to the OHIO22, PENALTY APPALCHAN holding 10 yards to the APPALCHAN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 20
OWN 22
+1
23.7%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 19
OWN 23
0
23.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jalin MooreSimilar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 19
OWN 23
0
23.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3181% → 82%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
19.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
19.3%
Papi White run for 8 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
18.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+2
17.1%
JD Sprague run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
16.5%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
17.8%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 39 yds, downed at the AppSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
11 plays · 97 yds · 3:5820% → 33%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
19.6%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+10
19.2%
Jalin Moore run for 10 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
20.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
19.2%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+15
18.7%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Jones, Dante, PENALTY OHIO personal foul (Davis, Toran) 15 yards to the OHIO41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APPALCHAN.Similar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
19.7%
Marcus Cox run for 12 yds to the Ohio 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
19.8%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+6
19.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 6 yds to the Ohio 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+1
18.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 1 yd to the Ohio 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
18.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
32.7%
Barrett Burns 17 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2271% → 72%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
28.7%
JD Sprague run for 3 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+11
27.9%
JD Sprague pass intercepted Latrell Gibbs return for 11 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25TD
1 play · 26 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
58.4%
Marcus Cox 26 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0553% → 53%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.1%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
47.3%
JD Sprague pass intercepted Mondo Williams return for no gain to the Ohio 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:0256% → 77%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+36
55.7%
Marcus Cox run for 36 yds to the Ohio 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
56.6%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the Ohio 8Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
56.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Barrett BurnsSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
76.7%
Barrett Burns 8 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 28PUNT
16 plays · 42 yds · 5:3729% → 31%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
70.6%
OHIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 19Similar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+4
71.0%
JD Sprague pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+7
71.0%
JD Sprague pass complete to Papi White for 7 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+6
70.6%
JD Sprague run for 6 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
69.0%
White, Papi rush for 5 yards to the OHIO41, PENALTY OHIO holding 10 yards to the OHIO26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+9
70.1%
JD Sprague pass complete to Papi White for 9 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
69.9%
Papi White run for 2 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
70.9%
Sprague, JD pass incomplete to Smith, Sebastian, PENALTY APPALCHAN pass interference (Williams, Mondo) 15 yards to the APPALCHAN48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO.Similar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
64.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
64.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+6
64.5%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 6 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
62.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the AppSt 34Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
62.4%
JD Sprague pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
64.6%
JD Sprague pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
69.1%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 31 yds, downed at the AppSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 29SF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
71.3%
Jovon Johnson SafetySimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
72.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-10 Yards) to the AppSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 30FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 4:1939% → 71%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
61.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
58.9%
JD Sprague run for 1 yd to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
60.8%
Greg Windham run for 2 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+33
66.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Kawmae Sawyer for 33 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
61.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
61.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+4
62.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+21
29.4%
Josiah Yazdani 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 31END OF GAME
12 plays · 73 yds · 1:4748% → 95%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
48.2%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+14
45.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 14 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
44.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 5 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+32
45.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 32 yds to the Ohio 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
53.2%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the Ohio 26Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+15
53.7%
Jalin Moore run for 15 yds to the Ohio 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
53.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
51.2%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the Ohio 6Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+23
95.4%
Zach Matics 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Zach Matics 23 yd FG GOOD
+61.6
FG · Q4 1:47
Josiah Yazdani 21 Yd Field Goal
-33
TD · Q4 13:10
Marcus Cox 26 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick)
+30.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com