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MSU

Michigan State 16 at Iowa 13

IOWA
2015 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2015 · Lucas Oil Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 9 yds Tevaun Smith fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jermaine Edmondson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 4:23: Michael Geiger 29 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:57: Michael Geiger 47 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:49: C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 85 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +23.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:27: LJ Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +61.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 0:22: C.J. Beathard sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 26 C.J. Beathard fumbled, forced by Shilique Calhoun, recovered by Iowa Derrick Mitchell Jr. , return for 0 yards , return for 1 yd to the Iowa 26 — IOWA win probability +9.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:11MSU 4th & 5 at IOWA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:29IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08IOWA 4th & 6 at MSU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:01MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:28IOWA 4th & 9 at MSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:54MSU 4th & 15 at IOWA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:49MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 29, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:31IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:12MSU 4th & 5 at IOWA 39, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−1.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:12IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−2.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:23MSU 4th & 6 at IOWA 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:35IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:57MSU 4th & 4 at IOWA 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%−1.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−12.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:14MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:31IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:54MSU 4th & 2 at IOWA 5, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.0 ptsWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%−4.0
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−18.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 14:49IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 0:27MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5135% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 4 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
34.9%
Wadley, Akrum rush for 2 yards to the IOWA31, PENALTY IOWA holding (Myers, Boone) 10 yards to the IOWA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+8
35.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 8 yds Henry Krieger Coble fumbled, forced by Riley Bullough, recovered by MchSt Arjen ColquhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4865% → 64%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
34.9%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-15
35.1%
Cook, Connor pass complete to Lyles, Jamal for 11 yards to the IOWA16, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Lyles, Jamal) 15 yards to the IOWA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 25
OPP 42
+10
35.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 10 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+22
35.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Felton Davis III for 22 yds to the Iowa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
35.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
35.5%
Aaron Burbridge run for 5 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
35.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
35.7%
Michael Geiger 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3536% → 37%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
35.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 12 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
36.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
36.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 6 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
36.9%
C.J. Beathard run for no gain to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
36.9%
Dillon Kidd punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:2463% → 63%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
36.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 17 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
36.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
36.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Jamal Lyles) to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+4
37.0%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Josey Jewell return for 4 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3738% → 39%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
38.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
38.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to LeShun Daniels Jr.Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+8
37.9%
C.J. Beathard run for 8 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
38.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
38.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 2 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
38.2%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
38.9%
Marshall Koehn 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0762% → 60%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
38.3%
Scott, LJ rush for 9 yards to the MICHIGANST34, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Clark, Donavon) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
38.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+6
38.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 6 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
39.4%
Connor Cook run for 9 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
39.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:3339% → 44%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
39.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 6 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+9
40.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 9 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
41.0%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 8
50
+1
41.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Derrick Mitchell Jr. for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+23
41.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jacob Hillyer for 8 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Montez Sweat) to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
42.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
42.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 3 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-1
42.4%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 4
OPP 20
-5
42.9%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (Henry Krieger Coble) to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
43.6%
Marshall Koehn 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:3457% → 54%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.4%
Madre London run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
42.8%
Madre London run for 6 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
42.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
50
+5
42.4%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
42.5%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+14
43.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Madre London for 14 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
42.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
42.2%
R.J. Shelton run for no gain to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
43.3%
Connor Cook sacked by Aaron Mends and Bo Bower for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 34Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+52
46.3%
Michael Geiger 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9INT
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:0346% → 52%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
46.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 9 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+1
49.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
49.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
49.7%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+20
48.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 20 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
51.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 7 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+4
51.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
51.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 14 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
52.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.7%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.1%
C.J. Beathard pass intercepted, touchback. Demetrious Cox return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0251% → 49%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
48.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
49.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 6 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
49.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for no gain to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+4
51.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 61 yds , Desmond King returns for 4 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:1850% → 49%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
50.0%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 14 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-13
50.6%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 13 yards to the Iowa 15 C.J. Beathard fumbled, forced by Shilique Calhoun, recovered by Iowa Cole Croston , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 23
OWN 15
+6
50.1%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+6
48.3%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
48.9%
Dillon Kidd punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:3148% → 51%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
52.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 2 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+18
52.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 18 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
49.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+53
49.2%
Michael Geiger 52 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 3:4850% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.8%
Madre London run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
49.6%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
50.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
53.0%
Hartbarger, Jake punt 38 yards to the IOWA32, King, Desmond return 9 yards to the IOWA41, PENALTY IOWA roughing the kicker (Mends, Aaron) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
48.1%
Connor Cook sacked by Miles Taylor and Nathan Bazata for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
50.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+16
51.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 16 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
47.8%
R.J. Shelton run for 5 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
47.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
48.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
50.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0053% → 52%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
52.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+2
53.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 4
OWN 18
-8
52.9%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 10Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
52.3%
Dillon Kidd punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:4950% → 55%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
50.3%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
50.1%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 2
50
+3
50.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
49.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
50.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Paul Lang for 17 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
48.5%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+10
48.3%
LJ Scott run for 10 yds to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
48.6%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+1
48.8%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Iowa 11Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
51.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
44.9%
Michael Geiger 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4850% → 48%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jacob HillyerSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
49.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jacob HillyerSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
47.7%
Dillon Kidd punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3856% → 62%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
44.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 15 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
42.3%
Madre London run for 12 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
41.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Paul LangSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
41.2%
Madre London run for 7 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-15
42.5%
Cook, Connor pass complete to Shelton, R.J. for 12 yards to the IOWA15, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Burbridge, Aaron) 15 yards to the IOWA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+14
46.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 14 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+47
37.9%
Michael Geiger 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0841% → 64%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
40.8%
Wadley, Akrum rush for 2 yards to the IOWA27, PENALTY IOWA holding (Blythe, Austin) 10 yards to the IOWA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
40.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Derrick Mitchell Jr. for no gain to the Iowa 15Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+85
64.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 85 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:3539% → 35%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.5%
Madre London run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
58.9%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
60.7%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
60.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
60.9%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
62.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
65.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:3767% → 67%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
66.5%
Beathard, C.J. pass incomplete to VandeBerg, Matt, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Hicks, Darian) 10 yards to the IOWA32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWA.Similar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
67.1%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 29Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+16
66.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 16 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
70.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
69.0%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 44Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+9
67.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 9 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-5
68.5%
IOWA Penalty, Delay of Game (C.J. Beathard) to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
66.6%
Dillon Kidd punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
26 plays · 82 yds · 9:0436% → 95%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
64.2%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
63.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+13
66.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 13 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
63.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-7
61.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Conklin) to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+10
66.8%
R.J. Shelton run for 10 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
61.4%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
61.4%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
50
0
60.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Touching (Aaron Burbridge) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 8
50
+16
65.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 16 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
61.0%
Connor Cook run for 7 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+3
62.8%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Iowa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
63.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
63.9%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
65.7%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
65.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
62.7%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
64.9%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Iowa 5Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+2
64.7%
Connor Cook run for 2 yds to the Iowa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
60.5%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.4%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Iowa 1Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.2%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22FUMBLE
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:2216% → 12%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
16.2%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 26 C.J. Beathard fumbled, forced by Shilique Calhoun, recovered by Iowa Derrick Mitchell Jr. , return for 0 yards , return for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
15.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+9
12.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 9 yds Tevaun Smith fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jermaine EdmondsonSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+9
12.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 9 yds Tevaun Smith fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jermaine EdmondsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:27
LJ Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-61
TD · Q4 14:49
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 85 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)
+23.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com