View as
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:08 · Alex Starzyk punt for 38 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 5 yds to the Houst 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:32: Greg Ward Jr. run for 47 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +9.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:40: Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +6.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:26: P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +10.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:12: Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance Allen — HOU win probability +5.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:29: Austin Jones 39 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +3.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 10:45HOU 4th & 1 at TEM 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.9%71% to convertField goal68.7%−0.281% to makePunt68.2%−0.7average punt
- Q1 2:24HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snapGo for it71.0%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%average punt
- Q1 1:27TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 14, down 7Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snapGo for it28.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:55HOU 4th & 1 at TEM 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.0%71% to convertField goal71.1%−0.962% to makePunt69.0%−3.0average punt
- Q2 13:28HOU 4th & 4 at TEM 6, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snapGo for it72.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call71.8%−0.291% to makePunt68.7%−3.3average punt
- Q2 11:08TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 25, down 10Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snapGo for it26.1%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:19HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 45, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snapGo for it72.7%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.2%average punt
- Q2 7:31TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.8%average punt
- Q2 1:46TEM 4th & 8 at HOU 23, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.733% to convertField goalTheir call15.4%70% to makePunt10.1%−5.2average punt
- Q3 12:22HOU 4th & 6 at TEM 45, up 14Close callPunted · 85.0% before the snapGo for it85.5%40% to convertField goal84.3%−1.325% to makePuntTheir call85.4%−0.2average punt
- Q3 10:18TEM 4th & 4 at HOU 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.2%48% to convertField goal14.7%−0.558% to makePunt10.6%−4.6average punt
- Q3 1:16HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 11, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snapGo for it91.6%−1.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q4 13:40TEM 4th & 1 at HOU 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.0%71% to convertField goal7.7%−2.356% to makePunt6.1%−3.9average punt
- Q4 11:29TEM 4th & 8 at HOU 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snapGo for it7.7%−1.033% to convertField goalTheir call8.7%72% to makePunt3.6%−5.1average punt
- Q4 9:37HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 15, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snapGo for it89.1%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.8%average punt
- Q4 7:13TEM 4th & 3 at HOU 38, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.1%53% to convertField goal7.9%−1.238% to makePunt7.8%−1.3average punt
- Q4 5:19HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 41, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.2%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.5%average punt
- Q4 1:58TEM 4th & 11 at HOU 33, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.7%27% to convertField goal4.2%−0.649% to makePunt4.0%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:05HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.8%97% to makeGo for two69.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:32HOU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.6%97% to makeGo for two82.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:40HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:26TEM Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.9%97% to makeGo for two7.9%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1INT5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5031% → 32%
HOUDrive 2TD11 plays · 36 yds · 2:5069% → 70%
Q1 12:20
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
68.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 3 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+5
68.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 5 yds to the Temp 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+7
68.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 7 yds to the Temp 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3FUMBLE9 plays · 63 yds · 4:0230% → 31%
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+11
69.8%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 11 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
69.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brandon Shippen for 7 yds to the Temp 48Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+18
69.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Saledeem Major for 18 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
69.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 14 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+16
69.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 16 yds Robby Anderson fumbled, forced by Trevon Stewart, recovered by Houst Trevon StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 39 yds · 3:1171% → 71%
TEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5229% → 28%
HOUDrive 6FG9 plays · 42 yds · 2:4773% → 73%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
72.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 12 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
72.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to John Leday for 7 yds to the Temp 29Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
73.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to John Leday for 6 yds to the Temp 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0627% → 25%
Q2 11:08
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+5
74.7%
Alex Starzyk punt for 38 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 5 yds to the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3674% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3926% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:4876% → 87%
Q2 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+7
77.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Brandon Wilson for 7 yds to the Temp 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11FG11 plays · 51 yds · 3:3416% → 19%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
83.8%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brandon Shippen for 21 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 7
50
+12
83.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 12 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
82.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Saledeem Major for 13 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-4
82.4%
P.J. Walker sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+3
83.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 14 yds · 1:2485% → 85%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
85.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Javin Webb for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2384% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14DOWNS6 plays · 51 yds · 1:5215% → 16%
Q3 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+41
84.3%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 41 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD7 plays · 71 yds · 3:3087% → 96%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
89.2%
Linell Bonner pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 18 yds to the Temp 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:045% → 14%
Q3 5:55
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+22
95.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 22 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
96.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Trevon Stewart) to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+14
96.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 14 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
96.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 7 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+11
96.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 11 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
86.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5692% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18FG11 plays · 29 yds · 4:3612% → 13%
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
89.5%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 8 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+6
89.8%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 6 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
88.8%
Thomas, Jahad rush for 9 yards to the HOUSTON15, PENALTY TEMPLE holding (Christopher, John) 10 yards to the HOUSTON34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+5
89.5%
P.J. Walker pass complete to David Hood for 5 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+7
89.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 7 yds to the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3388% → 89%
Q4 9:37
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+1
89.2%
Logan Piper punt for 38 yds , Sean Chandler returns for 1 yd to the Temp 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0211% → 9%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
88.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the Temp 42Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+13
91.0%
Walker, P.J. pass incomplete to Anderson, Robby, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Jackson III, William) 13 yards to the HOUSTON45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEMPLE.Similar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
88.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 5 yds to the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4692% → 93%
Q4 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-10
92.9%
Webb, Javin rush for 5 yards to the HOUSTON49, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Noble, Will) 10 yards to the HOUSTON34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+7
92.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Brandon Wilson for 7 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+3
92.9%
Logan Piper punt for 45 yds , Sean Chandler returns for 3 yds to the Temp 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 59 yds · 3:077% → 5%
Q4 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+22
91.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 22 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
92.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-3
94.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Temp Jahad ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23END OF GAME7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2797% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:26
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q2 5:32
Greg Ward Jr. run for 47 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+9
TD · Q3 6:40
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+6.9