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USC

USC 22 at Stanford 41

STAN
2015 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2015 · Levi's Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+6.6STAN 73.5%Conrad Ukropina 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 13 · Q2 8:32
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:32 · Conrad Ukropina 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense+8.5Pregame prior+5.1Score differential+4.2Garbage-time factor+3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:51: Cody Kessler pass complete to Jahleel Pinner for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Wood PAT BLOCKED) — USC win probability +12.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 80%).
  2. TD · Q3 5:28: Ronald Jones II run for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK) — USC win probability +20.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:11: Kevin Hogan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +27.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:04: Solomon Thomas 34 Yd Fumble Return (Conrad Ukropina Kick) — STAN win probability +18.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:29: Cody Kessler 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — USC win probability +16.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:08STAN 4th & 13 at USC 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:43USC 4th & 19 at USC 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:02STAN 4th & 1 at USC 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−0.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:34USC 4th & 12 at USC 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:32STAN 4th & 6 at USC 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:31USC 4th & 26 at USC 5, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−2.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:16STAN 4th & 1 at USC 1, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−9.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:35USC 4th & 1 at STAN 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:10USC 4th & 3 at STAN 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:16STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:24USC 4th & 17 at USC 37, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:53STAN 4th & 3 at USC 30, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:54STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:51USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:28USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:11STAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:04STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:29USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:33STAN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:38STAN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 5:4558% → 59%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
58.0%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Antwaun Woods) to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+13
58.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
50
-1
58.1%
Remound Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
58.2%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael Rector, broken up by Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+15
58.1%
Hogan, Kevin pass incomplete to Cajuste, Devon, PENALTY USC pass interference (Tell III, Marvell) 15 yards to the USC36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
58.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 20 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
58.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
58.6%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-5
58.6%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Kyle Murphy) to the USC 12Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+8
58.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
58.9%
Kevin Hogan run for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 11Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-6
59.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 4 yds to the USC 7 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rollins Stallworth) to the USC 17Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+4
58.9%
Kevin Hogan run for 4 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
58.7%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Rollins StallworthSimilar
Q1 9:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
58.8%
Conrad Ukropina 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:1141% → 40%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
58.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+2
59.0%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+8
59.2%
Cody Kessler run for 8 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
58.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr., broken up by Brennan ScarlettSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
58.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-15
58.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-Schuster USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (JuJu Smith-Schuster) to the USC 34Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 19
OWN 34
-2
59.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 42 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 6:4059% → 65%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
59.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
59.4%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+6
58.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
59.3%
Barry Sanders run for 1 yd to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
59.4%
Remound Wright run for 9 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
60.3%
Kevin Hogan run for 9 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+23
60.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 23 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
61.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 1
OPP 14
-1
60.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 15Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
60.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the USC 14Similar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
59.9%
Remound Wright run for 2 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
61.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the USC 11Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
65.3%
Christian McCaffrey pass complete to Kevin Hogan for 11 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0336% → 34%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
64.4%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-5
64.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chad Wheeler) to the USC 22Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 12
OWN 22
0
65.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Tre MaddenSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
66.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
66.4%
Kris Albarado punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:5265% → 74%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+50
64.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 50 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
66.3%
Kevin Hogan run for 5 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
66.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
66.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
67.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
67.7%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Joshua Garnett) to the USC 7Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
67.7%
Remound Wright run for 6 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.4%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
66.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 6Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
73.5%
Conrad Ukropina 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 0:5528% → 26%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
71.9%
USC Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the USC 16Similar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
72.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr., broken up by Quenton MeeksSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 15
OWN 16
0
72.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 15
OWN 16
-11
72.9%
Cody Kessler sacked by Brennan Scarlett for a loss of 11 yards to the USC 5Similar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 26
OWN 5
+31
73.6%
Kris Albarado punt for 45 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 31 yds to the USC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:0075% → 76%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
74.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 1 yd to the USC 18Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+13
75.6%
Bryce Love run for 13 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
75.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
76.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.0%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
75.6%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8FG
18 plays · 71 yds · 3:5825% → 28%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+16
74.8%
Justin Davis run for 16 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
74.7%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 22Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
75.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 11 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
74.7%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+13
77.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 13 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
76.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 5 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+6
76.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 6 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-Schuster, broken up by Alameen MurphySimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-3
76.4%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+12
78.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 12 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
76.0%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
74.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 3 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
73.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+4
75.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 4 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
72.1%
Alex Wood 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
75.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:0228% → 39%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
72.0%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+25
71.2%
Justin Davis run for 25 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
70.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 19 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
71.1%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+5
71.3%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the Stanf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
71.5%
Tre Madden run for 2 yds to the Stanf 1Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Jahleel Pinner for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Wood PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:1565% → 69%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
64.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
68.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 6 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+1
68.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
68.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
69.9%
Remound Wright run for 5 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
69.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
69.1%
Alex Robinson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4032% → 57%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.5%
Cody Kessler run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
67.8%
Justin Davis run for 15 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
66.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 11 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
65.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 8 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+3
64.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
63.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 8 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Alijah Holder) to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
63.6%
Davis, Justin rush for 5 yards to the STANFORD7, PENALTY USC personal foul (McNamara, Taylor) 15 yards to the STANFORD27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 25
OPP 27
+27
42.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:0450% → 75%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
50.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
50.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+67
47.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 67 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.1%
Kevin Hogan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:5829% → 13%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
70.8%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
71.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+9
72.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 9 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
70.0%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 2
OWN 22
-1
68.9%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 21Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+22
71.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 22 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
67.7%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 42Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
68.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 11
OWN 42
-34
86.7%
Solomon Thomas 34 Yd Fumble Return (Conrad Ukropina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3114% → 33%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
85.8%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 33Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+27
86.9%
Adoree' Jackson run for 27 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
84.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 9 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+2
83.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
83.2%
Justin Davis run for 12 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
83.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 5 yds to the Stanf 12Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
67.3%
Cody Kessler 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3776% → 96%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.7%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 6 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
76.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 8 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
79.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+8
80.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
81.0%
Kevin Hogan run for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+6
82.8%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 6 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
85.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
87.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+28
95.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 28 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 21 yds · 1:595% → 4%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
95.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 5 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+8
95.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
94.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Tre Madden for 5 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
94.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-Schuster, broken up by Alijah HolderSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+10
95.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 10 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Jalen Greene, broken up by Alijah HolderSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-7
94.9%
Cody Kessler sacked by Solomon Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 37Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 17
OWN 37
0
95.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 17
OWN 37
0
95.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:3497% → 99%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
96.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the USC 36Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+4
96.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+2
97.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+18
97.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 18 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
97.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
99.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
98.5%
Kessler, Cody pass incomplete, PENALTY STANFORD roughing passer (Watkins, Jordan) 15 yards to the STANFORD49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
98.5%
Kessler, Cody pass complete to Rogers, Darreus for 4 yards to the STANFORD45, PENALTY STANFORD offside (Rotto, Torsten) 5 yards to the STANFORD44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+8
98.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 8 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
98.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Justin Davis for 17 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.0%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-7
98.1%
Cody Kessler sacked by Joey Alfieri for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:11
Kevin Hogan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+27.4
TD · Q3 5:28
Ronald Jones II run for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
-20.7
TD · Q3 0:04
Solomon Thomas 34 Yd Fumble Return (Conrad Ukropina Kick)
+18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com