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USM

Southern Miss 28 at Western Kentucky 45

WKU
2015 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2015 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:35 · Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds, downed at the WKent 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior+18.9Home team on offense+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:52: Brandon Doughty 3 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick) — WKU win probability +10.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: Taywan Taylor 2 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick) — WKU win probability +14.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:04: Ito Smith 37 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick) — USM win probability +14.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:19: Taywan Taylor 39 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick) — WKU win probability +22.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:57: D'Andre Ferby 3 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick) — WKU win probability +13.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:35USM 4th & 18 at USM 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:44WKU 4th & 16 at WKU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:58WKU 4th & 8 at USM 32, tied
    Close callWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:01USM 4th & 1 at WKU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52USM 4th & 14 at WKU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:41WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:23WKU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.9%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:11USM 4th & 4 at WKU 39, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.9
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:02WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:42WKU 4th & 1 at USM 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.0%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:21WKU 4th & 7 at USM 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−12.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53USM 4th & 23 at USM 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−4.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:36USM 4th & 2 at USM 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:29WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:56USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:26USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:46USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:52WKU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:11WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:04USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:19WKU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:57WKU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:01WKU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4930% → 30%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
70.3%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+16
70.2%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Branden Leston return for 16 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:0670% → 71%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
70.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 2 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+21
70.3%
Anthony Wales run for 21 yds to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
70.3%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the SoMis 5Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
70.3%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Tyler HigbeeSimilar
Q1 12:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
70.9%
Antwane Grant 5 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:3229% → 29%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
70.7%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+8
70.6%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
50
-8
70.5%
Nick Mullens sacked by Omarius Bryant for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 18
OWN 42
0
70.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 18
OWN 42
0
71.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
71.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds, downed at the WKent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3671% → 71%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
71.1%
Anthony Wales run for 1 yd to the WKent 14Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-4
71.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 10Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 13
OWN 10
-3
71.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 7Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 16
OWN 7
0
70.9%
Jake Collins punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:3529% → 32%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
70.8%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
70.8%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+13
70.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 13 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+28
70.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 28 yds to the WKent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.8%
Jalen Richard 2 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3570% → 69%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
69.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 2 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
69.9%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
69.5%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
69.0%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 5:4932% → 33%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
68.4%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+14
68.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 14 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
67.6%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
67.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
67.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 9 yds Jalen Richard fumbled, forced by Marcus Ward, recovered by SoMis Michael Thomas for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
67.0%
Nick Mullens sacked by Marcus Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+2
67.1%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+9
66.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 9 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
66.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
65.7%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-9
65.3%
Nick Mullens sacked by Tanner Reeves and Omarius Bryant for a loss of 9 yards to the WKent 37Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 37
+3
66.7%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 14
OPP 34
0
67.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 33 yds, downed at the WKent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5868% → 66%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
67.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for 4 yds to the WKent 5Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
67.4%
D'Andre Ferby run for no gain to the WKent 5Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
66.7%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Tyler HigbeeSimilar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
66.3%
Jake Collins punt for 27 yds, downed at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0735% → 43%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
64.6%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
64.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 10 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
64.0%
Nick Mullens run for 17 yds to the WKent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
63.3%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 5Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
63.0%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
56.9%
Michael Thomas 5 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10INT TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:2659% → 49%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
58.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 18 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.0%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-3
58.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 7 yds to the WKent 37 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brandon Ray) to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+7
57.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 7 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+40
48.5%
Kalan Reed 40 Yd Interception Return (Stephen Brauchle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 6:4048% → 55%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.3%
D'Andre Ferby run for 3 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
47.9%
D'Andre Ferby run for 3 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
47.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 10 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
48.5%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
47.8%
D'Andre Ferby run for 4 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
47.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 1
50
+1
47.5%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
47.4%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Jared DangerfieldSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
47.1%
D'Andre Ferby run for 4 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+15
46.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 15 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
47.0%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
46.8%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Tyler HigbeeSimilar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+12
46.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 12 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
46.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 4 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+5
45.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for 5 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+1
44.4%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
44.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
44.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Tyler Higbee for 8 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.9%
Brandon Doughty 3 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:2350% → 53%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
50.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 9 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+20
48.5%
Jalen Richard run for 20 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
46.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 6 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
45.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
46.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
47.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 36 yds, downed at the WKent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 97 yds · 0:5650% → 71%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
49.8%
D'Andre Ferby run for 3 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+1
50.8%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd to the WKent 7Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+8
50.0%
D'Andre Ferby run for 8 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
50.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 13 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
51.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 9 yds to the WKent 37Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+49
53.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 49 yds to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
56.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Picasso Nelson Jr.) to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.5%
Taywan Taylor 2 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
50
0
58.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4465% → 63%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.0%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
65.0%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
63.3%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Devin ScottSimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
62.6%
Jake Collins punt for 44 yds , Jalen Richard returns for no gain to the SoMis 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:5339% → 57%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
60.8%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
61.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+4
61.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 4 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+31
62.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 31 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
57.3%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the WKent 37Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+37
42.7%
Ito Smith 37 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:1047% → 47%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
47.1%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Jared DangerfieldSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+7
46.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 7 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+9
45.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 9 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
46.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 11 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
48.7%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the WKent 38Similar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+9
46.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 9 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
49.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 2 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+3
48.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 3 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-1
47.1%
D'Andre Ferby run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4460% → 61%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
40.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Daythan DavisSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
39.0%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
39.0%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Tj McCollum return for no gain to the WKent 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:2047% → 53%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
46.9%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
45.7%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+14
44.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 14 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
48.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 22 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
49.9%
D'Andre Ferby run for 3 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
49.8%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Jared DangerfieldSimilar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
47.7%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
53.3%
Garrett Schwettman 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:3351% → 59%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
49.3%
Ito Smith run for 24 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
45.8%
Nick Mullens run for 11 yds to the WESTERNKY 45 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 9
OWN 45
+7
46.0%
Nick Mullens run for 7 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+25
44.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 25 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
40.5%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-10
40.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Oliver Bates) to the WKent 30Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 17
OPP 30
-3
41.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for a loss of 3 yards Jalen Richard fumbled, forced by Dejon Brown, recovered by WKent Wonderful TerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:5147% → 72%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
47.4%
Anthony Wales run for 7 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
50.2%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
49.5%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+13
50.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 13 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
72.2%
Taywan Taylor 39 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:1233% → 29%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
67.1%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
67.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-15
69.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (DJ Thompson) to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 25
OWN 17
+2
70.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 23
OWN 19
-2
71.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 37 yds , Nacarius Fant returns for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:4671% → 87%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
70.6%
Brandon Doughty run for 1 yd to the WKent 43Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+54
74.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 54 yds to the SoMis 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.3%
D'Andre Ferby 3 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:0114% → 17%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.7%
Nick Mullens run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
85.4%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
85.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 14 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.5%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Prince Charles Iworah return for no gain to the WKent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 7:1287% → 98%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
86.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 6 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+5
87.0%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
87.1%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+19
87.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
50
0
88.5%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
50
+5
90.0%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+20
90.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 20 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
91.8%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-3
92.3%
Taywan Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+24
92.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 24 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.8%
D'Andre Ferby 2 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:552% → 2%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
97.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-4
97.8%
Nick Mullens sacked by Dejon Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+7
98.0%
Nick Mullens run for 7 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 3:1498% → 99%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
98.2%
D'Andre Ferby run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+14
98.2%
D'Andre Ferby run for 14 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
98.3%
D'Andre Ferby run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+2
98.7%
D'Andre Ferby run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
98.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:19
Taywan Taylor 39 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)
+22.1
TD · Q3 12:04
Ito Smith 37 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)
-14.7
TD · Q2 0:11
Taywan Taylor 2 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com