Try the model
ARIZ

Arizona 45 at New Mexico 37

UNM
2015 · Gildan New Mexico Bowl · Dec 19, 2015 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:50 · Drew Riggleman punt for 51 yds, downed at the NMex 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior−13.4Home team on offense−15.0Score differential−7.5Garbage-time factor−5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:19: Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 92 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +9.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:56: Jared Baker run for 32 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +9.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:17: Lamar Jordan run for 11 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +9.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:35: Jared Baker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +10.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:52: Austin Apodaca run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNM win probability +16.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:56UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52UNM 4th & 5 at ARIZ 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:05ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 38, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:43UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:38UNM 4th & 8 at ARIZ 23, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:23UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:54ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:46ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:45UNM 4th & 19 at UNM 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−2.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:50ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:39ARIZ 4th & 5 at UNM 19, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−13.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:42UNM 4th & 13 at ARIZ 28, down 5
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.1 ptsWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%−5.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−12.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:39ARIZ 4th & 1 at UNM 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.7%−4.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−13.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:32ARIZ 4th & 3 at UNM 20, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−8.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:51UNM 4th & 1 at midfield, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:26ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:51ARIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:50UNM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:27ARIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:19UNM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:30ARIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:56ARIZ Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:17UNM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:35ARIZ Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:02UNM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:52UNM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4320% → 20%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
19.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+1
19.9%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMex 18Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+4
20.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
20.4%
Zack Rogers punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0879% → 79%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
20.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 7 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
20.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for no gain Nate Phillips fumbled, forced by Daniel Henry, recovered by NMex Daniel HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3821% → 23%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
21.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 12 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
21.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 6 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
21.7%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-1
22.0%
Richard McQuarley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
22.6%
Zack Rogers 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3678% → 76%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.5%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
22.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 11 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
22.8%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
22.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-4
23.0%
Anu Solomon sacked by Lee Crosby for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 38Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 10
OWN 38
-1
23.9%
Drew Riggleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
24.2%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted, touchback. Jarvis McCall Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:2276% → 78%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
23.8%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+78
22.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 78 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:2222% → 24%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
22.3%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 15Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+9
22.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 9 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+4
22.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
23.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
23.2%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
23.7%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
24.3%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
23.8%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+6
23.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
23.8%
Zack Rogers punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8INT
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:3076% → 77%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
24.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
23.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Josh Kern for 16 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+43
23.3%
Anu Solomon pass intercepted Cranston Jones return for 43 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2026% → 25%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
25.9%
Daryl Chestnut run for 2 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
26.1%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
26.0%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 8
OPP 23
0
25.3%
Zack Rogers run for no gain to the Ariz 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:3475% → 80%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
24.7%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+48
24.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 48 yds to the NMex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
20.0%
Jared Baker run for 27 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1221% → 20%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
20.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 15 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
21.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-3
21.3%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-2
20.9%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Scooby Wright III for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
20.3%
Zack Rogers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2380% → 79%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
20.3%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
20.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
20.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+3
20.9%
Drew Riggleman punt for 55 yds , Carlos Wiggins returns for 3 yds to the NMex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:5521% → 30%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
20.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+21
21.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 21 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
21.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
21.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+4
21.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
30.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 31 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:0473% → 73%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
25.3%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
25.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
25.5%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
26.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
27.2%
Drew Riggleman punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:5126% → 26%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
26.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+1
26.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMex 14Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+9
26.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 9 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
27.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
27.8%
David Anaya run for 2 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-14
27.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-14 Yards) to the NMex 14Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 19
OWN 14
0
26.6%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 19
OWN 14
0
26.3%
Zack Rogers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:1375% → 81%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
25.5%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
25.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 10 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+34
25.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 34 yds to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
24.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the NMex 14Similar
Q2 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
18.8%
Anu Solomon run for 14 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 0:5619% → 28%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
19.1%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+1
18.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMex 8Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+92
27.5%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 92 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3174% → 83%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+46
25.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 46 yds to the NMex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
24.6%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.0%
Jared Baker run for no gain to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19END OF HALF
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0820% → 20%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
20.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 25
OWN 20
+11
19.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 11 yds to the NMex 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0480% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.6%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 20 Anu Solomon fumbled, recovered by ArizSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+33
20.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 33 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
18.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 15 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
9.6%
Jared Baker run for 32 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:2512% → 21%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
11.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+26
11.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 26 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
12.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
12.7%
Daryl Chestnut run for 5 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
12.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-15
12.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Clipping (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+23
11.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 23 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
12.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
21.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 11 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:1582% → 82%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
18.0%
Orlando Bradford run for 22 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
16.7%
Orlando Bradford run for 4 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-3
16.5%
Tyrell Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
16.8%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
17.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 51 yds, downed at the NMex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+13
17.8%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted Jamar Allah return for 13 yds to the NMex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
7.5%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 5:2411% → 19%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
50
+2
11.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
10.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
11.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
10.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+8
10.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
11.0%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+20
10.6%
Ridge Jones run for 20 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
10.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
10.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:0019% → 36%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
19.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 11 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
20.4%
Austin Apodaca run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-8
20.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the Ariz 25 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 16
OPP 35
0
18.9%
Richard McQuarley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+16
17.0%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Reece White for 16 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
20.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 12 yds to the Ariz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
19.6%
Romell Jordan run for 3 yds to the Ariz 4Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
36.0%
Austin Apodaca run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27MISSED FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:0574% → 75%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
25.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 30 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
22.9%
Jared Baker run for 21 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
21.6%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
21.6%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
22.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
24.8%
Casey Skowron 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 28DOWNS
14 plays · 42 yds · 4:5732% → 28%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
31.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 5
OWN 25
-2
32.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-9
31.7%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 14 Tyrone Owens fumbled, recovered by NMexSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+26
30.0%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 26 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
35.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 9 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
37.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
37.7%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Chris Davis for 12 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
38.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+1
41.3%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 1 yd to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
38.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
38.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 7 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
38.8%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-10
34.0%
Chris Davis run for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 28 Chris Davis fumbled, recovered by NMexSimilar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 13
OPP 28
-10
28.3%
Austin Apodaca sacked by Scooby Wright III for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 29FG
16 plays · 42 yds · 4:5880% → 97%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
19.6%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
19.4%
Orlando Bradford run for 7 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
18.4%
Orlando Bradford run for 3 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
15.2%
Orlando Bradford run for 6 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
15.1%
Orlando Bradford run for 4 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
14.6%
Orlando Bradford run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
13.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
14.5%
Orlando Bradford run for 2 yds to the NMex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
9.9%
Orlando Bradford run for 3 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
8.7%
Orlando Bradford run for 1 yd to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+3
8.9%
Anu Solomon run for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
3.1%
Casey Skowron 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 30INT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:515% → 5%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
4.6%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
4.3%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Jhurell Pressley for 2 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+13
4.2%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Marquis Bundy for 13 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
5.1%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
4.6%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 1
50
0
4.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 1
50
+4
4.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
5.2%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
4.9%
Austin Apodaca pass intercepted Cam Denson return for 10 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:52
Austin Apodaca run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+16.4
TD · Q3 7:35
Jared Baker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q3 13:56
Jared Baker run for 32 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com