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BGSU

Bowling Green 30 at Tennessee 59

TENN
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Nissan Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.1TENN 100.0%Aaron Medley 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 30 - HOME 59 · Q4 3:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:08 · Aaron Medley 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 207Pregame prior+2.6Home team on offense+36.0Score differential+29.5Garbage-time factor+13.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.6Blowout margin+13.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:00: Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 31 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:52: Jalen Hurd run for 13 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +4.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:33: Ryan Burbrink run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:17: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 18 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +6.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:03: Alvin Kamara run for 56 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +6.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6BGSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
  1. Q1 12:43BGSU 4th & 8 at TENN 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:40BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:20BGSU 4th & 19 at BGSU 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:25BGSU 4th & 1 at TENN 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:13TENN 4th & 6 at BGSU 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:25BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:30TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:31BGSU 4th & 17 at TENN 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:47TENN 4th & 6 at BGSU 24, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:02BGSU 4th & 25 at TENN 25, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:30TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 26, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:48BGSU 4th & 4 at TENN 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:26BGSU 4th & 7 at TENN 7, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:06TENN 4th & 8 at BGSU 11, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−5.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:14BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 21, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:45BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 9, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:08TENN 4th & 8 at BGSU 8, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:48BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 33, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:59TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:18TENN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:07TENN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:47BGSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:00BGSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:52TENN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:24TENN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:33BGSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:17TENN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:03TENN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:02TENN Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:1111% → 11%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.3%
Travis Greene run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+45
89.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 45 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
89.0%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
88.8%
Matt Johnson run for no gain to the Tenn 22Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
88.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Robbie RhodesSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
88.6%
Tyler Tate 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3689% → 88%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+19
88.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
50
+5
88.6%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mike Minns) to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 5
OPP 45
-6
88.5%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Zach Colvin for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 49Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+10
88.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
88.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
88.1%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+1
88.1%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+5
87.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gus Schwieterman) to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
87.9%
Von Pearson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+16
87.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 16 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
88.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0512% → 12%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
87.9%
Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
87.8%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
87.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+47
87.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 59 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 47 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:2288% → 89%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
88.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
88.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
88.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 10 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:5212% → 11%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
88.5%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-9
88.5%
Matt Johnson sacked by Darrin Kirkland for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 19
OWN 1
0
88.6%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Robbie RhodesSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 19
OWN 1
+34
88.7%
Joseph Davidson punt for 57 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 34 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:0589% → 91%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
88.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+12
88.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
88.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:139% → 13%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
90.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Chris Gallon for 20 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
90.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Chris Gallon for 18 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
90.2%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
90.3%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+7
90.5%
Travis Greene run for 7 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+20
90.5%
Matt Johnson run for 20 yds to the Tenn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
90.3%
Travis Greene run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 11Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
87.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Hunter Folkertsma for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:3288% → 88%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
88.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
88.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 7 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+1
88.4%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 2
50
+6
88.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
88.4%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
88.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-1
88.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 27 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jauan Jennings) to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-3
88.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
88.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 1:5012% → 18%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
88.0%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
88.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig Dieter, broken up by Emmanuel MoseleySimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+7
88.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for 7 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 3
OWN 13
+18
88.3%
Travis Greene run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+38
87.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 38 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
82.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 31 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2484% → 83%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
83.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+20
83.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 61 yds , Ryan Burbrink returns for 20 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 3:4417% → 18%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
83.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Fred Coppet for 8 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
82.6%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
82.7%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
82.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
82.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Teo Redding for 13 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.8%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-15
81.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 25
OWN 36
0
83.2%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 25
OWN 36
+15
83.6%
Johnson, Matt pass incomplete to Redding, Teo, PENALTY TENNESSEE personal foul (Barnett, Derek) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN.Similar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
81.6%
Fred Coppet run for 8 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+29
81.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 29 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
80.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 1 yd to the Tenn 11Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+3
80.4%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the Tenn 8Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-11
80.9%
Matt Johnson sacked by Jalen Reeves-Maybin for a loss of 11 yards to the Tenn 19Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+37
82.1%
Tyler Tate 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3282% → 88%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Kyler Kerbyson) to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
81.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 10 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
81.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 10 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
82.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
83.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 9 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
83.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 2 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
83.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 6 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+16
82.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
83.1%
Alvin Kamara run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 2
OPP 13
0
83.0%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
87.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 13 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · -21 yds · 0:4114% → 13%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
86.5%
Johnson, Matt pass complete to Burbrink, Ryan for 8 yards to the BOWLGREEN33, PENALTY BOWLGREEN holding (McAuliffe, Tim) 10 yards to the BOWLGREEN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
86.6%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger Lewis, broken up by Corey VereenSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-7
86.7%
Matt Johnson sacked by Danny O'Brien for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 27
OWN 8
-4
87.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 31
OWN 4
+21
87.3%
Joseph Davidson punt for 46 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 21 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:3388% → 92%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
87.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
87.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+15
87.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 15 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
87.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
92.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 11 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Teo Redding for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:0192% → 92%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
91.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+2
91.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+45
91.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 45 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
92.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
92.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
92.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Darrell Hunter IISimilar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
91.5%
Aaron Medley 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:079% → 17%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
91.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 23 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
90.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 6 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+8
89.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 8 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+31
90.2%
Fred Coppet run for 31 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.0%
Ryan Burbrink run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18TD
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
92.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 18 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19MISSED FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:059% → 8%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
91.3%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+45
91.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 45 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
90.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 27 yds to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.5%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.5%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Fred CoppetSimilar
Q3 10:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
90.5%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Chris Gallon, broken up by Brian RandolphSimilar
Q3 10:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
90.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 25
+43
91.7%
Tyler Tate 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Brian RandolphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2092% → 92%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
92.4%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 23Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
92.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+3
92.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+3
92.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 46 yds , Ryan Burbrink returns for 3 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 3:469% → 10%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
91.0%
Matt Johnson run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
91.0%
Matt Johnson run for 7 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+16
90.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 16 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
90.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 2 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
89.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 5 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-1
91.0%
Ronnie Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+8
91.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 8 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
90.3%
Matt Johnson run for 9 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+5
90.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Derek Lee for 5 yds to the Tenn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
90.3%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the Tenn 3Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
90.3%
Johnson, Matt pass incomplete to Dieter, Gehrig, PENALTY BOWLGREEN illegal formation 5 yards to the TENNESSEE8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
90.3%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the Tenn 7Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
91.3%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
89.7%
Tyler Tate 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22MISSED FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:1492% → 92%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
91.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+30
91.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 30 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
92.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
92.6%
Alvin Kamara run for no gain to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+16
92.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 16 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
92.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 3 yds to the BwGrn 10 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Johnathon Johnson) to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 17
OPP 20
-1
92.8%
Jauan Jennings run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 18
OPP 21
+10
92.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
92.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
92.2%
Aaron Medley 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:419% → 9%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
90.7%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+6
90.7%
Fred Coppet run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
90.6%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Derek LeeSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
90.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger Lewis, broken up by Cameron SuttonSimilar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
91.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
91.3%
Joseph Davidson punt for 35 yds, downed at the Tenn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24TD
1 play · 56 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
97.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 56 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25FUMBLE
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:464% → 4%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.1%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
96.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 8 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
96.2%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
96.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 17 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
96.3%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
96.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Derek Lee, broken up by Malik ForemanSimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+34
96.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 34 yds to the Tenn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
96.1%
Matt Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 6 Matt Johnson fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 3:0898% → 100%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
98.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+11
98.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 11 yds to the Tenn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
98.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
98.4%
Jauan Jennings run for 4 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
98.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+30
98.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 30 yds to the BwGrn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
98.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+9
98.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 18 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
99.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 4 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+1
99.9%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 9
0
99.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 5
OWN 9
0
99.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 44 yds, downed at the Tenn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:27100% → 100%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
99.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.8%
John Kelly run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+4
99.8%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.8%
Quinten Dormady run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+9
99.8%
John Kelly run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.8%
Quinten Dormady run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+5
99.8%
John Kelly run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.8%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
99.9%
John Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Joe StocstillSimilar
Q4 3:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
100.0%
Aaron Medley 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Donovan Wilson for 2 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
100.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Chris Gallon for 7 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
100.0%
Donovan Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Johnathon Johnson at the Tenn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
100.0%
John Kelly run for 5 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+1
100.0%
Quinten Dormady run for 1 yd to the Tenn 22Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+1
100.0%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the Tenn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:33
Ryan Burbrink run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q3 11:17
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 18 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q3 0:03
Alvin Kamara run for 56 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com