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ACU

Abilene Christian 13 at Fresno State 34

FRES
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2015 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:51 · Jimmy Camacho 50 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Home team on offense+16.4Pregame prior+7.0Score differential+7.0Garbage-time factor+5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:31: Herschel Sims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK) — ACU win probability +3.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:58: Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 32 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +3.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:53: Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 4 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +7.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:27: Kody Kroening 40 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +3.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:38: Zack Greenlee pass complete to Chad Olsen for 31 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ACU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00ACU 4th & 6 at ACU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:29ACU 4th & 6 at ACU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:21FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ACU 4th & 12 at ACU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:53ACU 4th & 5 at FRES 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−1.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:59ACU 4th & 2 at FRES 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−1.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:34ACU 4th & 2 at FRES 16, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 25, up 14
    Close callPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:20ACU 4th & 13 at FRES 27, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:51FRES 4th & 10 at ACU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:27FRES 4th & 10 at ACU 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−7.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:38ACU 4th & 12 at ACU 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−2.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ACU 4th & 2 at FRES 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 45, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:20ACU 4th & 18 at ACU 7, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:38FRES 4th & 1 at ACU 26, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:02FRES 4th & 8 at ACU 19, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:02ACU 4th & 19 at ACU 31, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00ACU 4th & 6 at FRES 6, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ACU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:29FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:31ACU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:58FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:53FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:38FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ACUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.6%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
67.6%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jonathan Epps for 7 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
67.6%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
67.6%
Parker McKenzie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
67.6%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 34 yds, downed at the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:4668% → 69%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
67.5%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+36
67.5%
Marteze Waller run for 36 yds to the AblCh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
67.7%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the AblCh 25Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
68.8%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 25 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.3%
De'Andre Brown run for 6 yds to the AblCh 31Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
68.2%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cade Stone for 5 yds to the AblCh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
68.2%
De'Andre Brown run for 3 yds to the AblCh 39Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
68.1%
De'Andre Brown run for 1 yd to the AblCh 40Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
68.2%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Cedric Gilbert, broken up by Jamal EllisSimilar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
68.4%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 51 yds, downed at the FrsSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
68.9%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 14
OWN 5
0
68.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 14
OWN 5
0
68.7%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Josiah Blandin, broken up by LaMarcus AllenSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 14
OWN 5
0
68.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Epps at the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:0132% → 35%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
68.3%
Parker McKenzie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+17
68.5%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cedric Gilbert for 17 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
68.0%
Cody Ennis run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
67.9%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jonathan Epps for 10 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
67.9%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Herschel Sims for 8 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
67.9%
Herschel Sims run for no gain to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+11
68.3%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Liam Flowers for 11 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.9%
Herschel Sims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 3:2766% → 71%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
66.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 12 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
66.4%
Dustin Garrison run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
67.0%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+3
66.7%
Dustin Garrison run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
67.1%
Dustin Garrison run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+8
67.0%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the AblCh 47Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
67.1%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the AblCh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
67.3%
Dustin Garrison run for 4 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+4
67.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 4 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+2
67.1%
Dustin Garrison run for 2 yds to the AblCh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
67.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
67.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+32
70.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 32 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5230% → 28%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
69.8%
Herschel Sims run for 2 yds to the AblCh 18Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+2
69.9%
Herschel Sims run for 2 yds to the AblCh 20Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-6
71.1%
Parker McKenzie sacked by Tobenna Okeke for a loss of 6 yards to the AblCh 14Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
71.7%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:0272% → 80%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
72.2%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
50
+1
72.2%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the AblCh 49Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+21
71.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 21 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
72.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 8 yds to the AblCh 20Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+6
72.5%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the AblCh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
72.5%
Shannon Edwards run for 9 yds to the AblCh 5Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 5
0
72.5%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+1
72.0%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the AblCh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.5%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the AblCh 4Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 4 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
77.4%
De'Andre Brown run for 8 yds to the AblCh 22Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+6
77.2%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jonathan Epps for 6 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
77.2%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cade Stone for 11 yds to the AblCh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
76.9%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cedric Gilbert for 16 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
76.3%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cedric Gilbert for 5 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
76.2%
Parker McKenzie run for no gain to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
76.4%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Cedric Gilbert, broken up by Jamal EllisSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
76.8%
Parker McKenzie punt for 17 yds, downed at the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10INT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
80.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Keyan Williams for 11 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
80.4%
Dustin Garrison run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
80.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Keyan Williams for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+7
80.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Keyan Williams for 7 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
81.2%
Dustin Garrison run for 3 yds to the AblCh 48Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-6
81.2%
Dustin Garrison run for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 13
OWN 46
-5
80.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 18
OWN 41
+5
80.4%
VIRGIL, Chason pass complete to VIRGIL, Chason for loss of 9 yards to the FS32 (W. Moore), PENALTY ACU offside defense 5 yards to the FS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+23
80.4%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Junior Henderson return for 23 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:2521% → 20%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
78.6%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Jonathan EppsSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
78.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Cade Stone for no gain to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+8
80.1%
De'Andre Brown run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+3
79.3%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Jonathan Epps for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
78.4%
Dallas Sealey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
78.4%
Dallas Sealey run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-1
81.1%
Cody Ennis run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
80.1%
Nik Grau 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12INT
14 plays · 64 yds · 0:5084% → 86%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
83.9%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Justin Johnson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+15
84.0%
GREENLEE, Zack pass incomplete, PENALTY ACU roughing passer (AJ Tolbert) 15 yards to the FS42, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
84.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
84.4%
Zack Greenlee run for 11 yds to the AblCh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
84.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the AblCh 41Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-1
84.8%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Marteze Waller for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 42Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+11
85.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds to the AblCh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
86.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
86.5%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, offside defense (Bryson Gates) to the AblCh 26Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+10
86.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 10 yds to the AblCh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
86.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
86.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Keyan Williams, broken up by Quentin BryantSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+23
85.6%
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted D.J. Arnold return for 23 yds to the AblCh 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.4%
Parker McKenzie pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
83.8%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Keyan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
82.4%
Garrett Swanson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Epps at the AblCh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
82.3%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the AblCh 42Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
82.3%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cedric Gilbert for 6 yds to the AblCh 48Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+9
81.8%
Parker McKenzie run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
81.5%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Cedric Gilbert, broken up by Charles WashingtonSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+19
81.8%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jonathan Epps for 19 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
80.4%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Byron ProctorSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-7
80.8%
Parker McKenzie sacked by Brandon Hughes for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 17
OPP 31
+4
82.7%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jonathan Epps for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 14:20
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+1
83.3%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Carl Whitley for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16MISSED FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:5486% → 86%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.7%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
85.6%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+38
85.2%
Marteze Waller run for 38 yds to the AblCh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
86.4%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
86.4%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Josiah BlandinSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
85.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+50
86.2%
Jimmy Camacho 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
84.8%
Parker McKenzie pass intercepted Jeff Camilli return for no gain to the AblCh 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:1888% → 93%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
87.6%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
87.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Keyan Williams for 6 yds to the AblCh 42Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+7
87.1%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the AblCh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
87.7%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+4
90.1%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the AblCh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
90.1%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Keyan Williams for no gain to the AblCh 23Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
89.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
89.6%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
92.7%
Kody Kroening 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:499% → 8%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.4%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Monte Green-AverySimilar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.5%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Carl Whitley for 5 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
90.9%
Parker McKenzie sacked by Ejiro Ederaine for a loss of 7 yards to the AblCh 23Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
91.8%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 54 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:1594% → 99%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
93.7%
Marteze Waller run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
93.9%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+15
94.2%
Marteze Waller run for 15 yds to the FRESNOST 43 for a 1ST down ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
94.3%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the AblCh 36Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+5
94.2%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the AblCh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
98.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Chad Olsen for 31 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 21INT
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:323% → 2%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
97.5%
De'Andre Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 20Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+25
97.5%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to De'Andre Brown for 10 yds to the AblCh 30 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the AblCh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
97.4%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to De'Andre Brown for 22 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
97.0%
De'Andre Brown run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
96.9%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Jonathan Epps, broken up by James BaileySimilar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+5
97.3%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jamie Walker for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
98.0%
Parker McKenzie pass intercepted Ejiro Ederaine return for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
99.0%
Dustin Garrison run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.0%
Dustin Garrison run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
99.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Keyan Williams for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
99.0%
GARRISON, Dusti rush for 3 yards to the FS43 (R. Wimbley), PENALTY ACU substitution infraction 5 yards to the FS45, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+3
99.0%
Chason Virgil run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48 FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-3
99.1%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
98.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Epps at the AblCh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
98.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Sam Lawlis for 1 yd to the AblCh 16Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-5
98.7%
Dallas Sealey sacked by Claudell Louis for a loss of 5 yards to the AblCh 11Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 14
OWN 11
-5
98.7%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 6Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 19
OWN 6
+1
98.8%
Randy Gober run for 1 yd to the AblCh 7Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 18
OWN 7
0
98.8%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AblCh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3699% → 100%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.4%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 3 yds to the AblCh 32Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
99.4%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 5 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Keyan Williams for 1 yd to the AblCh 26Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+5
99.3%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 5 yds to the AblCh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
99.4%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the AblCh 19Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
99.9%
Jimmy Camacho 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Byron Proctor for 4 yds to the AblCh 29Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Sam Lawlis for 1 yd to the AblCh 30Similar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Jonathan Epps for 10 yds to the AblCh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Cade StoneSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Jonathan Epps for a loss of 4 yards to the AblCh 36Similar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 14
OWN 36
-5
99.9%
Dallas Sealey sacked by Justin Green for a loss of 5 yards to the AblCh 31Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 19
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 34 yds , Keyan Williams returns for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38 Keyan Williams fumbled, recovered by AblCh A.J. TolbertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:590% → 1%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
Randy Gober run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Carl Whitley for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+8
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Byron Proctor for 8 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.9%
Randy Gober run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Randy Gober run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+10
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Byron Proctor for 10 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Carl Whitley, broken up by Tyquwan GlassSimilar
Q4 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Cody Ennis, broken up by DeShawn PottsSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Randy Gober for 1 yd to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.4%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Byron Proctor for 6 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:53
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 4 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q3 2:38
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Chad Olsen for 31 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q1 5:31
Herschel Sims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nik Grau KICK)
-3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com