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USF

South Florida 14 at Florida State 34

FSU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.1FSU 92.5%Roberto Aguayo 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 17 · Q3 6:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:40 · Roberto Aguayo 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior+24.3Home team on offense+13.2Score differential+1.8Garbage-time factor+6.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:57: Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 1 yd for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +2.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:08: Dalvin Cook run for 24 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:38: Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 23 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:50: Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 71 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +5.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:46: Roberto Aguayo 38 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 13:12USF 4th & 8 at USF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:58FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:13USF 4th & 1 at USF 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:50FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:02USF 4th & 12 at USF 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:56USF 4th & 8 at USF 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:04FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 18, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:54FSU 4th & 22 at FSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:52FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:55USF 4th & 1 at USF 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:41FSU 4th & 22 at FSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:40USF 4th & 9 at FSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:55FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:20USF 4th & 8 at USF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:07USF 4th & 13 at USF 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:40FSU 4th & 11 at USF 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−4.3
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:45USF 4th & 7 at FSU 37, down 10
    Close callPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−0.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:46FSU 4th & 20 at USF 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−1.7
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−3.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:46USF 4th & 7 at USF 37, down 13
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:25FSU 4th & 1 at USF 43, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:09USF 4th & 2 at USF 45, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:45FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:57USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:08FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:38FSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:50USF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:55FSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:284% → 4%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.5%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
96.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for no gain to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-2
96.3%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Giorgio Newberry for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+6
96.3%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 42 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 6 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5296% → 96%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
96.2%
Everett Golson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 43 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 14
OWN 33
+2
96.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+1
96.0%
Everett Golson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+2
95.9%
Everett Golson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
95.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:384% → 5%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
95.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+2
95.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
95.6%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+4
95.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 40 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1396% → 95%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
95.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-1
95.4%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
95.2%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
95.1%
Cason Beatty punt for 44 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for no gain to the SFla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:415% → 6%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
95.1%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+4
94.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
94.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
94.6%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-5
94.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+18
94.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 56 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 18 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:1395% → 95%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
94.5%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+74
95.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 74 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:155% → 5%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.1%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
95.0%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
95.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+1
95.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 55 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 1 yd to the FlaSt 20 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4795% → 94%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
94.8%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
94.8%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+8
94.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+46
94.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 39 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 46 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:026% → 6%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
94.0%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
93.9%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
94.0%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted, touchback. Marquez White return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:4594% → 94%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.4%
Mario Pender run for no gain to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
94.3%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-12
94.1%
Everett Golson sacked by Mike Love for a loss of 12 yards to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 22
OWN 8
0
93.9%
Cason Beatty punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the FlaSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:526% → 9%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
93.8%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
93.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 9 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
93.3%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+24
93.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 24 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
93.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 1 yd for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5492% → 91%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
92.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
91.9%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
91.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
91.8%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
91.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:489% → 10%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
90.7%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
90.4%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+3
90.4%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
89.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0891% → 89%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
91.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
91.1%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-10
90.5%
Everett Golson sacked by Daniel Awoleke for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 22
OWN 43
0
89.4%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 22
OWN 43
0
88.9%
Cason Beatty punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:5612% → 13%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
88.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+13
87.8%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
87.2%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+23
87.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 23 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
86.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-2
85.7%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Jacob Pugh for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
85.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
86.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2488% → 87%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
88.3%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
87.7%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+4
86.2%
Everett Golson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
86.5%
Cason Beatty punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2716% → 14%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
84.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
84.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
84.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
85.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
87.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3788% → 92%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.9%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
87.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 15 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
87.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for no gain to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
91.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 24 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5610% → 10%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
89.9%
Marlon Mack run for 11 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
89.4%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-2
88.8%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-4
89.3%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Derwin James for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+6
90.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 48 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 6 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:1990% → 93%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
90.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
90.5%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
89.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 15 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.1%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+50
90.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 50 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
92.7%
Mario Pender run for 1 yd to the SFla 11Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-9
92.6%
Everett Golson sacked by James Hamilton for a loss of 9 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 18
OPP 20
+7
91.5%
Mario Pender run for 7 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+30
92.5%
Roberto Aguayo 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:448% → 8%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.4%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
92.1%
Marlon Mack run for 14 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
91.7%
Darius Tice run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
91.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darius Tice for 3 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
91.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
91.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
92.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:0292% → 98%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
92.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+13
91.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+2
91.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
91.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 16 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
92.2%
Mario Pender run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
91.5%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+16
91.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
50
+15
92.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Freddie Stevenson for 15 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.7%
Mario Pender run for no gain to the SFla 35Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
93.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 12 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
97.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 23 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:383% → 8%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.8%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
91.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 71 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25FG
16 plays · 43 yds · 5:5593% → 97%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
92.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
92.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
50
+2
92.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+11
92.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ja'Vonn Harrison for 11 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-7
92.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the SFla 34 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 17
OPP 44
+21
92.7%
Mario Pender run for 21 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
93.1%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
92.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ja'Vonn Harrison for 9 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
92.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
92.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 20
OPP 21
0
92.9%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 20
OPP 21
0
92.6%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 20
OPP 21
0
91.7%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 20
OPP 21
+38
96.9%
Roberto Aguayo 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:394% → 4%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
95.8%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
95.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+5
96.3%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 56 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 5 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27TD
15 plays · 88 yds · 5:5197% → 100%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
97.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 5
OWN 17
-1
97.1%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+10
97.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 10 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
97.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 28 Dalvin Cook fumbled, recovered by FlaStSimilar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
97.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+18
97.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 18 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.0%
Mario Pender run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 8
50
+4
98.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 4 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
98.3%
Everett Golson run for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
99.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+37
99.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 37 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 6 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 5 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+3
99.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+3
99.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 3 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 8:46
Roberto Aguayo 38 yd FG GOOD
+5.3
TD · Q4 14:50
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 71 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
-5
TD · Q3 0:38
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 23 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com