Try the model
BYU

BYU 17 at San José State 16

SJSU
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2015 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:33 · Jonny Linehan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior−9.8Home team on offense−6.3Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:12: Algernon Brown run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +5.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:21: Tanner Mangum pass intercepted for a TD Cleveland Wallace III return for 61 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:45: Kenny Potter run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SJSU win probability +27.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:45: Austin Lopez on-side kick recovered by BYU at the BYU 45 — BYU win probability +13.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:41: TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 42 — BYU win probability +21.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:07SJSU 4th & 14 at BYU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:04SJSU 4th & 19 at BYU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:04SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 49, down 11
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:02BYU 4th & 16 at BYU 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:27SJSU 4th & 1 at BYU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−1.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:21BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:35SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54BYU 4th & 5 at SJSU 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:33SJSU 4th & 8 at BYU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−7.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:33BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:25SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:21BYU 4th & 6 at SJSU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−13.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:16SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:11BYU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:05SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.8%−4.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:09BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:12BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:21SJSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:45SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 6.2 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.6%−6.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:5324% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
23.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
23.9%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+12
23.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 12 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
23.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 19 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
23.9%
Hansell Wilson run for 15 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
23.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+15
23.9%
POTTER, Kenny middle pass incomplete to ERVIN, Tyler (HANNEMANN,Micah), PENALTY BYU pass interference (HANNEMANN,Micah) 15 yards to the BYU10, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
23.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
23.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 5 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-12
23.9%
Kenny Potter sacked by Jherremya Leuta-Douyere and Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 12 yards to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
26.7%
Austin Lopez 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5873% → 74%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
26.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 5 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
26.6%
Francis Bernard run for 5 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
26.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
26.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
50
+8
26.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 8 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+7
26.3%
Tanner Mangum run for 7 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
26.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 19 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
26.2%
Algernon Brown run for 12 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
26.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 4 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 26 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
27.0%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
27.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 11 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
27.7%
Tim Crawley pass incomplete to Billy Freeman, broken up by Micah HannemannSimilar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
27.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Thomas Tucker for 13 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
27.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 7 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-2
28.2%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 37Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+6
27.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 6 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
28.2%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
28.1%
Thomas Tucker run for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-6
27.8%
Kenny Potter sacked by Fred Warner for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 14
OPP 35
-5
26.6%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
26.7%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 5:4571% → 77%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
28.8%
Adam Hine run for 7 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
28.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
28.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 6 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
28.8%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
28.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+11
29.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 11 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
28.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Francis Bernard for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
50
0
28.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Nick Kurtz, broken up by Cleveland Wallace IIISimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
50
+5
28.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 5 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
28.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
28.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 9 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
28.0%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
27.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+16
27.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 16 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
27.6%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+9
29.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Francis Bernard for 9 yds to the SJSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
23.3%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
25.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for no gain to the SJSt 44Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
25.2%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 5 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
25.3%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Hansell WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
24.8%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
24.6%
Adam Hine run for 1 yd to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-7
24.7%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Nick Oreglia for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 8Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 16
OWN 8
0
25.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 16
OWN 8
0
25.6%
Jonny Linehan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:0725% → 23%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
24.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
25.0%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+12
24.7%
Kenny Potter run for 12 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
25.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 7 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
25.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
25.0%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+1
23.2%
Thomas Tucker run for 1 yd to the BYU 14 Thomas Tucker fumbled, recovered by BYU Fred WarnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
23.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Remington Peck for 18 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
22.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
22.9%
Adam Hine run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-3
23.4%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Tony Popovich for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
24.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4622% → 22%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
21.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
22.1%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin Holmes, broken up by Michael DavisSimilar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+2
21.5%
Kenny Potter run for 2 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
22.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 49 yds, downed at the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10INT TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:0277% → 71%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
22.6%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+39
22.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 39 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
20.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch Mathews, broken up by Cleveland Wallace IIISimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+61
28.8%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted for a TD Cleveland Wallace III return for 61 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
31.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
29.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
29.6%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+3
29.9%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
31.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 40 yds, downed at the SJSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13MISSED FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 7:4433% → 36%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
32.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+10
32.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 10 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
33.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 22Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+9
33.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 9 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
33.6%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Josh Oliver for 6 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
35.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+19
35.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 19 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
36.7%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+11
35.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 11 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+1
36.5%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
38.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 7 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
38.3%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-5
36.4%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
35.5%
Austin Lopez 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
32.1%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
31.3%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
32.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
34.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
33.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 8 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
33.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
36.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
35.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
34.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 39Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+10
32.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 38 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 10 yds to the BYU 49 BYU Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BYU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:4970% → 81%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+34
29.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 34 yds to the SJSU 48 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
26.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 8 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+7
26.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 7 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
25.2%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
25.3%
Francis Bernard run for no gain to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+16
26.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 16 yds to the SJSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
24.9%
MANGUM,Tanner right pass complete to KURTZ,Nick for 5 yards to the SJ12, PENALTY BYU holding (HOYT,Austin) 10 yards to the SJ27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 27
0
25.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 27
-10
26.2%
MANGUM,Tanner deep pass complete to PEARSON,Colby for 25 yards to the SJ2 (McKNIGHT, Mauri), PENALTY BYU holding (BERNARD,Francis) 10 yards to the SJ37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 30
OPP 37
+24
25.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 24 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
24.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
19.4%
Trevor Samson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
22.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Shane Smith for 13 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
24.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
26.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Shane Smith for 4 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-7
25.6%
Kenny Potter sacked by Fred Warner for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 38Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
21.1%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 39 yds, downed at the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:3683% → 87%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
17.5%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-5
16.7%
BYU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+19
17.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Francis Bernard for 19 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
15.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Algernon Brown for 5 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-7
15.0%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Isaiah Irving for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+11
16.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 1
50
0
13.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:2019% → 54%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
18.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 13Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+11
18.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 11 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
18.5%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+49
16.7%
Kenny Potter run for 34 yds to the SJSU 42 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, personal foul (Michael Wadsworth) to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
26.4%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
25.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+9
20.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 9 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
26.6%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+14
21.3%
POTTER, Kenny deep pass incomplete to FREEMAN, Billy, PENALTY BYU pass interference (NACUA,Kai) 14 yards to the BYU6, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
26.6%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
54.4%
Kenny Potter run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0481% → 81%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
19.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 13
OWN 42
-2
19.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 15
OWN 40
-2
19.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:45
Kenny Potter run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+27.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:41
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 42
-21.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com