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NEV

Nevada 30 at Fresno State 16

FRES
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2015 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.7FRES 40.9%Brent Zuzo 30 Yd Field GoalAWAY 20 - HOME 16 · Q3 8:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:28 · Brent Zuzo 30 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense−6.3Score differential−2.8Pregame prior−3.3Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:02: Hasaan Henderson 73 Yd pass from Tyler Stewart (Brent Zuzo Kick) — NEV win probability +8.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:55: Kilton Anderson 24 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +10.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:57: Brent Zuzo 47 Yd Field Goal — NEV win probability +5.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:14: Josiah Blandin 2 Yd pass from Kilton Anderson (Kody Kroening PAT failed) — FRES win probability +5.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 11:17: James Butler 59 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick) — NEV win probability +14.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 9NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:22FRES 4th & 7 at NEV 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:30NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:51FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:47NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:28FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:30FRES 4th & 1 at NEV 8, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%−2.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−8.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:55FRES 4th & 1 at NEV 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−1.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:57NEV 4th & 13 at FRES 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:28FRES 4th & 3 at NEV 12, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%−0.2
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    37.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−7.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:30NEV 4th & 3 at FRES 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−2.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:28NEV 4th & 12 at FRES 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−10.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:30FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:42NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 8, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%−5.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−19.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:36FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 21, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:44NEV 4th & 15 at FRES 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:37FRES 4th & 22 at NEV 22, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:44NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 9, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:08NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:02NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:55FRES Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:17NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:4542% → 42%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
41.7%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
41.8%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
42.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Aaron Mitchell) to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 15
OWN 47
-3
42.1%
Kilton Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 18
OWN 44
-30
41.6%
Matthew Lyons 30 Yd Fumble Return (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:3842% → 41%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.5%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
41.5%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
41.4%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
41.6%
Marteze Waller run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
41.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
41.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chad Olsen for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+5
41.4%
Kilton Anderson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
41.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 44 yds, downed at the Nevad 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:5259% → 59%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
41.4%
Jackson, Don rush for 2 yards to the NEVADA7, PENALTY NEVADA holding (Macauley, Jeremy) 2 yards to the NEVADA3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 12
OWN 3
-2
41.1%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 1Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 14
OWN 1
+3
41.1%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+3
41.1%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 8
OWN 7
0
41.4%
Alex Boy punt for 53 yds, downed at the FrsSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3441% → 41%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
41.4%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
41.1%
Kilton Anderson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+4
41.2%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
41.1%
Garrett Swanson punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4360% → 59%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
40.5%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
40.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 7 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-1
40.0%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
40.6%
Alex Boy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Da'Mari Scott at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1941% → 40%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
40.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+3
40.1%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
40.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 12
OWN 29
-5
39.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+14
39.4%
Kilton Anderson run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
39.8%
Garrett Swanson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:1560% → 61%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
39.8%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
39.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 6 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+12
40.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
39.2%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-5
39.1%
Stewart, Tyler pass complete to Jackson, Don for 5 yards to the NEVADA36, PENALTY NEVADA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NEVADA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+8
39.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+22
39.0%
Tyler Stewart pass intercepted Tyquwan Glass return for 22 yds to the FRESNOST 44 FRESNO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Micah St. Andrew) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2042% → 45%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
42.3%
Dustin Garrison run for 9 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-1
42.3%
Dustin Garrison run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
41.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 4 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
42.3%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for no gain to the Nevad 17Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
42.3%
Jamire Jordan run for 9 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
41.4%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Josiah BlandinSimilar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+25
44.7%
Kody Kroening 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:2357% → 66%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
43.1%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
42.4%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+73
34.4%
Hasaan Henderson 73 Yd pass from Tyler Stewart (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0734% → 44%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
33.9%
Marteze Waller run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-3
34.0%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+15
31.8%
Anderson, Kilton pass incomplete, PENALTY NEVADA roughing passer 15 yards to the NEVADA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
34.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 16 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
35.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-5
35.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Jacob Vazquez) to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
34.9%
Marteze Waller run for 9 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
34.1%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+24
44.0%
Kilton Anderson 24 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 2:4358% → 64%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
42.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
42.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 12 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
41.0%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+13
40.1%
Tyler Stewart run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
39.5%
Tyler Stewart run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+20
39.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 20 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
38.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
39.2%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Ejiro Ederaine for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 20
OPP 37
+7
41.7%
Tyler Stewart run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+47
36.1%
Brent Zuzo 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
18 plays · 76 yds · 2:3637% → 47%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
37.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
37.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 7 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+11
36.3%
Kilton Anderson run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
37.3%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 18 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
39.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 10 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
41.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 11 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
41.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 6 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
41.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+1
39.6%
Kilton Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 12Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+10
37.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 10 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
42.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.6%
Josiah Blandin 2 Yd pass from Kilton Anderson (Kody Kroening PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
44.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 6:1756% → 59%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
44.3%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+2
43.1%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-5
43.9%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Macauley) to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+30
45.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 30 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
41.5%
James Butler run for no gain to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
41.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
42.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+11
44.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 11 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
40.6%
James Butler run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
40.6%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
40.6%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Austin Corbett) to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
40.7%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
42.2%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Ziad Damanhoury) to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
42.6%
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
40.9%
Brent Zuzo 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3042% → 40%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
42.4%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
42.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
40.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
39.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 6:2861% → 73%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
39.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 6 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+7
37.5%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
37.7%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+25
39.2%
Tyler Stewart run for 25 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
35.2%
Don Jackson run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
31.6%
Don Jackson run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
31.4%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-5
30.9%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Austin Carrow) to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
31.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+14
33.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 14 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
30.0%
Don Jackson run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
29.9%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
31.1%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+25
26.6%
Brent Zuzo 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4929% → 26%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
28.9%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+6
28.9%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
28.2%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+1
26.0%
Garrett Swanson punt for 53 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 1 yd to the Nevad 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:5876% → 92%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
24.1%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
23.5%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+9
24.2%
Tyler Stewart run for 9 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
21.8%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+59
7.7%
James Butler 59 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0813% → 12%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
12.3%
Kilton Anderson pass intercepted Dameon Baber return for no gain to the Nevad 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 3:1292% → 94%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
8.0%
Don Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
7.1%
Don Jackson run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
6.3%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
6.1%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-8
6.1%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Ejiro Ederaine and Claudell Louis for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
6.4%
Alex Boy punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21INT
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:077% → 6%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
7.3%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Ian Seau and Lenny Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+9
6.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 9 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+39
7.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 24 yds to the FRESNOST 48 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
7.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 12 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
7.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 8 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (6 Yards) to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
7.5%
Greenlee, Zack pass complete to Blandin, Josiah for 7 yards to the NEVADA0, PENALTY FRESNOST illegal block 15 yards to the NEVADA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 22
0
7.1%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Michael MartensSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
0
6.4%
Greenlee, Zack pass complete to Hardaway, Delvon for 22 yards to the NEVADA0, PENALTY FRESNOST illegal touching 0 yards to the NEVADA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
0
6.0%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 4:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
0
5.5%
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted Dameon Baber return for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:3695% → 97%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
4.6%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 2Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 2
-1
4.6%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 1Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+8
3.7%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+6
3.5%
Alex Boy punt for 42 yds , Da'Mari Scott returns for 6 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23INT
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:114% → 4%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
3.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 13 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
3.8%
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted Dameon Baber return for no gain to the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:4997% → 98%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
3.0%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+62
2.9%
Don Jackson run for 62 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
1.9%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+13
1.8%
James Butler run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:17
James Butler 59 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)
-14.1
TD · Q2 5:55
Kilton Anderson 24 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)
+10.6
TD · Q2 9:02
Hasaan Henderson 73 Yd pass from Tyler Stewart (Brent Zuzo Kick)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com