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UNLV

UNLV 28 at Fresno State 31

FRES
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2015 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:29 · Garrett Swanson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the FRESNOST 20 FRESNO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dalen Jones) to the UNLV 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Home team on offense−8.5Pregame prior−5.5Garbage-time factor−3.8Score differential−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:42: Kendal Keys 13 Yd pass from Kurt Palandech (Nicolai Bornand Kick) — UNLV win probability +16.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:05: Xzaviar Campbell 2 Yd Run (Nicolai Bornand Kick) — UNLV win probability +15.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:13: Devonte Boyd 29 Yd pass from Kurt Palandech (Nicolai Bornand Kick) — UNLV win probability +12.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:02: Kilton Anderson 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — FRES win probability +21.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 2:37: Marteze Waller 38 Yd Run (Kilton Anderson Pass to Chad Olsen for Two-Point Conversion) — FRES win probability +55.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q2 13:00FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 39, tied
    Close callWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.7%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:23FRES 4th & 6 at UNLV 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−3.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:23UNLV 4th & 21 at UNLV 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:55FRES 4th & 13 at FRES 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−3.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:29FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:33UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:23FRES 4th & 10 at UNLV 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:54UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 34, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:59FRES 4th & 4 at UNLV 21, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:55UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−3.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:13UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 45, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−4.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:54FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 37, down 5
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:25UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 18, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−3.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:27UNLV 4th & 6 at FRES 32, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.0 ptsWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%−6.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−14.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:24UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:49FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:11FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:42UNLV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:05UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:13UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:02FRES Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:37FRES Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3164% → 65%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.6%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
35.9%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Aaron Criswell for 3 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
36.1%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Andrew Price for 4 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
36.3%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+10
36.3%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Anthony Williams for 10 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
36.4%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Todd Hunt for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+10
36.8%
Kurt Palandech run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+8
36.7%
Keith Whitely run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
36.8%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+14
36.9%
Keith Whitely run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
37.0%
Keith Whitely run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.0%
George Naufahu run for no gain to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.0%
George Naufahu 1 Yd Run (Nicolai Bornand Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 5:1136% → 41%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
35.7%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
35.8%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+35
35.6%
Kilton Anderson run for 35 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
36.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
36.6%
Kilton Anderson run for 9 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
36.7%
Kilton Anderson run for 2 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
37.2%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+3
37.3%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 3 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+11
36.8%
Marteze Waller run for 11 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
37.5%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the UNLV 13Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
37.5%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the UNLV 6Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
41.4%
Kilton Anderson 6 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4760% → 60%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
39.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
39.7%
George Naufahu run for 4 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-5
40.2%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Anthony Williams UNLV Penalty, Illegal Touching (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
40.2%
Logan Yunker punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Da'Mari Scott at the FrsSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:1241% → 44%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
41.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
42.4%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-1
42.3%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-1
41.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+21
41.3%
Garrett Swanson run for 21 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
44.3%
Marteze Waller run for 9 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-4
44.8%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+11
44.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 11 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
45.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 15 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
45.5%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the UNLV 8Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
45.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Josiah BlandinSimilar
Q2 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
44.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 2 yds to the UNLV 6Similar
Q2 10:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
44.1%
Kody Kroening 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:5258% → 56%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.0%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-7
42.1%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Nela Otukolo for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 13Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 17
OWN 13
-4
43.3%
Kurt Palandech run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 9Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
44.4%
Logan Yunker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Da'Mari Scott at the UNLV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:0747% → 56%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
46.7%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+17
46.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 17 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
47.6%
Kilton Anderson run for 9 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-1
47.9%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 17Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+17
56.3%
Marteze Waller 17 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:1846% → 61%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.9%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
54.0%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Anthony Williams for 7 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
54.0%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
54.2%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+14
55.2%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 14 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
52.8%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
52.7%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
53.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
51.7%
Kurt Palandech run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
51.8%
Kurt Palandech run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+6
52.9%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Keith Whitely for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
51.5%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
53.6%
Kurt Palandech run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
55.2%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
55.3%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
39.2%
Kendal Keys 13 Yd pass from Kurt Palandech (Nicolai Bornand Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
48.1%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marteze Waller for 4 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0047% → 45%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.3%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
47.2%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-1
45.8%
Kilton Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
45.1%
Garrett Swanson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:4057% → 73%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
43.4%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+12
42.6%
Kurt Palandech run for 12 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.3%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Xzaviar CampbellSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
42.1%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Keith Whitely for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 6
50
+11
41.8%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 11 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
41.4%
Keith Whitely run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
40.1%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
40.1%
Xzaviar Campbell run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Nela Otukolo) to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
40.3%
Kurt Palandech run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
40.5%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
42.5%
Palandech, Kurt pass incomplete to Price, Andrew, PENALTY FRESNOST pass interference (Glass, Tyquwan) 8 yards to the FRESNOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNLV.Similar
Q3 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.9%
Xzaviar Campbell 2 Yd Run (Nicolai Bornand Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3032% → 30%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
31.6%
Jamire Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
31.4%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Jeremiah Valoaga for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+11
29.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marteze Waller for 11 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+35
29.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the FRESNOST 20 FRESNO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dalen Jones) to the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5072% → 71%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
28.0%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
28.5%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
27.4%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Andrew PriceSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
29.2%
Logan Yunker punt for 32 yds , Da'Mari Scott returns for no gain to the FrsSt 30 Da'Mari Scott fumbled, recovered by UNLV Kenny KeysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 1:0574% → 87%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
25.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
25.4%
Xzaviar Campbell run for no gain to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+29
13.3%
Devonte Boyd 29 Yd pass from Kurt Palandech (Nicolai Bornand Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 2:3916% → 21%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
16.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
15.6%
Kilton Anderson run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+9
15.1%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 9 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
15.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 13 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
17.1%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
17.5%
Anderson, Kilton pass incomplete to Johnson, KeeSean, PENALTY FRESNOST pass interference (Johnson, KeeSean) 15 yards to the FRESNOST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 25
OWN 45
0
16.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 25
OWN 45
+15
15.8%
Anderson, Kilton pass incomplete to Johnson, KeeSean, PENALTY UNLV pass interference (McTyer, Torry) 15 yards to the UNLV40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
17.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chad Olsen for 13 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
18.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
17.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
16.7%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
20.8%
Jimmy Camacho 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2179% → 79%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
20.4%
Kurt Palandech pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
20.5%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Keith Whitely for 4 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
20.9%
Logan Yunker punt for 43 yds, downed at the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:5120% → 19%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
19.7%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+7
19.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 7 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
19.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chad Olsen for 28 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
22.3%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+6
22.9%
Kilton Anderson run for 6 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
22.8%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+3
22.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chad Olsen for 3 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
21.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
18.8%
Jimmy Camacho 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5583% → 83%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
16.6%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 1 yd to the UNLV 22Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
16.6%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-6
17.2%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Ejiro Ederaine for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 16Similar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
17.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Da'Mari Scott at the FrsSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:4318% → 41%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
18.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 17 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
19.4%
Jamire Jordan run for 25 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
40.8%
Kilton Anderson 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:3772% → 75%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.9%
Keith Whitely run for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
25.9%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
26.6%
George Naufahu run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
24.9%
Kurt Palandech run for 11 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
23.5%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 7
50
-5
22.7%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Claudell Louis for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
23.5%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Aaron CriswellSimilar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
25.3%
Logan Yunker punt for 23 yds, downed at the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0531% → 28%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
31.0%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
30.7%
Kilton Anderson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
29.3%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
28.4%
Garrett Swanson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1976% → 78%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
23.6%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+1
20.8%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 1 yd to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
20.5%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Andrew PriceSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
21.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Da'Mari Scott at the FrsSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:4331% → 88%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
31.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
33.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+6
32.4%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
32.5%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 4 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
32.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+38
87.5%
Marteze Waller 38 Yd Run (Kilton Anderson Pass to Chad Olsen for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:0026% → 25%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
74.0%
Kurt Palandech run for 39 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
68.2%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Andrew PriceSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
67.6%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Andrew Price for 6 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-2
66.5%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Ejiro Ederaine for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 6
OPP 32
-3
75.5%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Justin Green for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -17 yds · 0:5590% → 92%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
89.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 16
OWN 30
-5
90.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 21
OWN 25
-6
92.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:37
Marteze Waller 38 Yd Run (Kilton Anderson Pass to Chad Olsen for Two-Point Conversion)
+55.3
TD · Q4 11:02
Kilton Anderson 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+21.4
TD · Q2 0:42
Kendal Keys 13 Yd pass from Kurt Palandech (Nicolai Bornand Kick)
-16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com