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NMSU

New Mexico State 35 at UL Monroe 42

ULM
2015 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2015 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:32 · Chris Qualls punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 33 , Tyrain Taylor returns for 27 yds to the LaMon 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense−5.3Garbage-time factor−1.9Score differential−1.7Pregame prior+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:34: Marcus Green 11 Yd pass from Brian Williams (Craig Ford Kick) — ULM win probability +14.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:49: Brian Williams pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 48 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +20.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:21: Brian Williams pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 32 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +16.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:05: Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 10 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +16.9 pts (now 52%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:12: Andrew Allen pass intercepted for a TD Trey Caldwell return for 40 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +25.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 10 of 11NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 12:27ULM 4th & 10 at NMSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:57NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:18ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:34NMSU 4th & 17 at NMSU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:38ULM 4th & 1 at NMSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.7%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:18NMSU 4th & 21 at NMSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:17NMSU 4th & 15 at ULM 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:32ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:11NMSU 4th & 9 at ULM 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:56ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:57ULM 4th & 9 at NMSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−6.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 34, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:58ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:36NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 23, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:34NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−3.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:21NMSU 4th & 8 at ULM 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:05ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:12NMSU 4th & 6 at ULM 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%−2.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:01ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:34NMSU 4th & 5 at ULM 15, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%−2.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−13.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:50ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:46NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.8%−3.7
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:59ULM 4th & 6 at NMSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:27NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:08NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:35ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:55NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:34ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:34ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:49ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:21ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:05NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:12ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1INT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
54.0%
Kaylon Watson run for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
54.0%
Earnest Carrington run for 2 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
54.0%
Earnest Carrington sacked by Derek Ibekwe for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-1
54.0%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+24
54.0%
Earnest Carrington pass intercepted Justin Allen return for 24 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:2246% → 47%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
53.9%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
53.1%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.4%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
53.4%
Ben Luckett run for 7 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
53.6%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
53.6%
DeVontae McNeal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
53.5%
Ben Luckett run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+2
53.6%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.7%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ben LuckettSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
53.6%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+5
53.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Josh Gibbs) to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
53.5%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
53.3%
Chris Qualls punt for 26 yds, downed at the NMxSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
52.1%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
52.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+6
52.0%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
51.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-10
51.7%
Rose III, Larry rush for no gain to the NMSU36, out-of-bounds (Kissinger, H), PENALTY NMSU holding (Cunningham, A.) 10 yards to the NMSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+1
52.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 1 yd to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+8
52.4%
Andrew Allen run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
52.4%
Anthony Torres punt for 45 yds, downed at the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
51.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 23 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
52.1%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
51.8%
Kaylon Watson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
51.8%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
51.3%
Chris Qualls punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Teldrick Morgan at the NMxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:5549% → 54%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
50.8%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
50.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+76
46.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 76 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:3348% → 51%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
47.8%
Kaylon Watson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-5
47.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+2
47.1%
DeVontae McNeal run for 2 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+5
47.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Noah Brown) to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+8
47.8%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 8 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
51.1%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 49 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 1:4051% → 58%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
49.0%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+18
49.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 18 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
48.2%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+47
48.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 47 yds to the LaMon 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
47.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
47.8%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.7%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
49.1%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to DeVontae McNeal for 74 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-9
48.0%
Andrew Allen sacked by Cody Robinson for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 19
OWN 23
-1
48.8%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 20
OWN 22
+3
49.2%
Andrew Allen run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 14:34
4TH & 17
OWN 25
0
49.6%
Anthony Torres punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
49.5%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
48.9%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
49.0%
Earnest Carrington run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-5
49.1%
Earnest Carrington sacked by Noah Brown and Stephen Meredith for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
45.6%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-7
45.6%
Andrew Allen sacked by Gerrand Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 17
OWN 47
-4
47.3%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 21
OWN 43
0
48.1%
Anthony Torres punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.9%
Kaylon Watson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
47.2%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+13
46.4%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 13 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
47.8%
Earnest Carrington pass intercepted Jacob Banegas return for 3 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0056% → 53%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
43.8%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-1
43.7%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-8
44.4%
Andrew Allen sacked by Cody Robinson and Lorenzo Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 15
OPP 37
0
46.6%
Anthony Torres punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
44.6%
DeVontae McNeal run for 13 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
45.0%
DeVontae McNeal run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+1
44.6%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-5
43.8%
Earnest Carrington sacked by Drew James for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 15
OWN 28
+27
43.1%
Chris Qualls punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 33 , Tyrain Taylor returns for 27 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16MISSED FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1660% → 59%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
40.5%
Allen, Andrew pass incomplete to Hogan, Gregory, QB hurry by Johnson, M, PENALTY NMSU holding (Folasa-Lutui, I) 10 yards to the ULM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+5
41.1%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the LaMon 38 Larry Rose III fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Larry Rose III , return for 5 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 15
OPP 38
0
41.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Larry Rose III, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+6
42.2%
Andrew Allen run for 6 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+49
41.0%
Parker Davidson 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1544% → 43%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
43.8%
Marcus Green run for 5 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
45.0%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-1
44.7%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ajalen Holley for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
43.2%
Chris Qualls punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Teldrick Morgan at the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
41.7%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24 Larry Rose III fumbled, forced by Ben Banogu, recovered by LaMon Hunter KissingerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4749% → 45%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
48.7%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
48.5%
Earnest Carrington run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
46.7%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
44.5%
Craig Ford 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20END OF HALF
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
41.2%
Andrew Allen run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
40.0%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+5
40.6%
Andrew Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
38.2%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
38.7%
Andrew Allen run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-2
39.7%
Anthony Torres punt for 38 yds , Junior Williams returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -17 yds · 0:1841% → 27%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
40.7%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
27.3%
Earnest Carrington sacked by Noah Brown for a loss of 9 yards Earnest Carrington fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Stephen Meredith , return for 0 yards , return for 9 yds, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
27.9%
Brian Williams run for 4 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
28.8%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
28.5%
Brian Williams pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
27.8%
Chris Qualls punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Teldrick Morgan at the NMxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
25.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 7 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 3
OWN 24
-10
25.0%
Andrew Allen sacked by Michael Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 13
OWN 14
+9
26.0%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 4
OWN 23
-13
26.1%
Anthony Torres run for a loss of 13 yards to the NMxSt 11 Anthony Torres fumbled, forced by Jaylen Veasley, recovered by NMxSt Noah BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:1628% → 42%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
28.1%
Ajalen Holley pass incomplete to Brian Williams, broken up by Winston RoseSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
28.1%
Kaylon Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
42.4%
Marcus Green 11 Yd pass from Brian Williams (Craig Ford Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
37.5%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-5
37.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Isaiah Folasa-Lutui) to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+3
38.2%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 12
OWN 10
-2
38.7%
Andrew Allen sacked by Gerrand Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 14
OWN 8
0
40.0%
Anthony Torres punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27TD
1 play · 48 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
60.7%
Brian Williams pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 48 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
53.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Hunter Kissinger) to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
52.4%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-7
53.0%
Andrew Allen run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 40 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Abram Holland) to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 17
OWN 25
+4
55.0%
Andrew Allen pass intercepted Hunter Kissinger return for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 29TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:4662% → 78%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
62.0%
Brian Williams run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+32
78.0%
Brian Williams pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 32 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1629% → 52%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.7%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
68.4%
Rose III, Larry rush for no gain to the NMSU34 (Kissinger, H;Johnson, M), PENALTY NMSU holding (McMeans, A) 10 yards to the NMSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
71.0%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Rayvean MooreSimilar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
72.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 12 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
69.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+25
70.6%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 25 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
67.2%
Jermichael Selders run for 6 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
64.9%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-4
66.8%
Andrew Allen sacked by David Griffith for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+9
70.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 9 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
64.9%
Jermichael Selders run for 15 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
64.9%
Jermichael Selders run for 3 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
64.9%
Andrew Allen run for 1 yd to the LaMon 10Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
48.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 10 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
57.0%
Brian Williams run for 3 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
57.1%
Brian Williams pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 5 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-2
57.9%
Brian Williams sacked by Stody Bradley for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
54.9%
Chris Qualls punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyrain Taylor at the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 32INT TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:5947% → 25%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.6%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
52.3%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
52.6%
Andrew Allen run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
50.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
50.4%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Junior WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+40
75.5%
Andrew Allen pass intercepted for a TD Trey Caldwell return for 40 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 33PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
74.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
71.3%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
71.7%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-1
71.1%
Andrew Allen sacked by Hunter Kissinger and Gerrand Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
72.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
75.1%
Anthony Torres punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 34PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
83.6%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 11Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+5
83.4%
Ben Luckett run for 5 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
82.7%
Brian Williams pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
81.5%
Chris Qualls punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 35FUMBLE
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
77.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 15 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
76.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 7 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+10
73.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 10 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
73.8%
Andrew Allen run for 8 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-1
73.8%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-2
75.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 15Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 5
OPP 15
-10
78.4%
Andrew Allen sacked by Cody Robinson for a loss of 10 yards to the LaMon 24 Andrew Allen fumbled, recovered by LaMon Ben Banogu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 36PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
86.2%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+16
86.3%
Brian Williams run for 1 yd to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jaden Wright) to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
87.8%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
87.9%
Brian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
86.7%
Brian Williams pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
85.6%
Chris Qualls punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Teldrick Morgan at the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 37DOWNS
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
85.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 9 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
82.2%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
84.0%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-15
85.3%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 29 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Abram Holland) to the NMxSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 38DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:2193% → 91%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
92.7%
Kaylon Watson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+3
93.9%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
93.5%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 6
OPP 10
-43
93.5%
Craig Ford 27 yd FG BLOCKED for a 1ST down blocked by null for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-70 Yards) for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
90.4%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 19 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
89.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+5
90.3%
Andrew Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
89.6%
Andrew Allen run for no gain to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+4
90.8%
Andrew Allen run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 39END OF GAME
3 plays · -19 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
95.5%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-5
95.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 14
OPP 41
-15
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the LaMon 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:12
Andrew Allen pass intercepted for a TD Trey Caldwell return for 40 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+25.1
TD · Q3 7:49
Brian Williams pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 48 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+20.7
TD · Q3 2:05
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 10 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com