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TROY

Troy 41 at Louisiana 17

UL
2015 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2015 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:00 · TEAM punt blocked by Reginald Miles blocked by Reginald Miles
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Home team on offense−10.9Score differential−5.0Garbage-time factor−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Pregame prior+2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:37: Teddy Ruben 15 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Jed Solomon Kick) — TROY win probability +3.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:00: Elijah McGuire 18 Yd Run (Carlos Alvarez Kick) — UL win probability +4.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:51: Jordan Davis pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 7 yds for a TD, (Carlos Alvarez KICK) — UL win probability +9.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:56: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 67 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +16.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q3 2:31: Jordan Davis run for a loss of 4 yards Jordan Davis fumbled, recovered by Troy Demetrius Cain , return for 17 yds, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +10.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 12:34UL 4th & 10 at UL 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:57TROY 4th & 3 at UL 22, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.4%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:57UL 4th & 10 at UL 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UL 4th & 1 at UL 45, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.4%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:00TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−2.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:34UL 4th & 20 at TROY 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:03TROY 4th & 6 at UL 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−1.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:35UL 4th & 10 at TROY 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:51UL 4th & 4 at TROY 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:10TROY 4th & 3 at UL 4, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:30UL 4th & 5 at UL 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 37, up 24
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:25UL 4th & 2 at TROY 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:41TROY 4th & 18 at TROY 47, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:08UL 4th & 6 at TROY 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:34TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:37TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:47TROY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:00UL Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:51UL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:56TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:2647% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
53.4%
Brandon Burks run for 16 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
53.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 8 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
53.4%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+8
53.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 8 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
53.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 13 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
53.4%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+13
53.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 13 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+23
52.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 23 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
52.8%
Elijah McGuire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
52.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+5
52.7%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 5 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
52.8%
Haack, Brooks sideline pass complete to Byrne, Nick for 9 yards to the UL42 (Cain, Demetrius), PENALTY UL holding (Anderson, O.) 10 yards to the UL23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+1
52.8%
Jordan Davis run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 19
OWN 24
+9
52.7%
Jordan Davis run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
52.7%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+10
52.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 56 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 10 yds to the Troy 43 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, illegal block (Jalen Rountree) to the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
51.9%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+13
51.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 13 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
51.6%
Silvers, B. rush OR for 1 yard to the TROY42, PENALTY TROY holding (Bennett, Dalton) 10 yards to the TROY31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 20
OWN 31
0
52.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon BurksSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+3
52.0%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+5
52.2%
Silvers, B. middle pass incomplete to Douglas, D., PENALTY UL offside (Lee, Taboris) 5 yards to the TROY39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
52.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
52.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds , Gary Haynes returns for no gain to the LaLaf 24 Gary Haynes fumbled, recovered by Troy Taylor PolkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:1750% → 53%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
50.5%
Silvers, B. sideline pass incomplete to Farmer, L., PENALTY UL offside (Washington, D.) 5 yards to the UL19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+4
50.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 4 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
50.5%
Josh Anderson run for no gain to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
46.8%
Teddy Ruben 15 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Jed Solomon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
48.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Elijah McGuire for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+2
48.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 13
OWN 15
0
47.9%
Brooks Haack pass intercepted Montres Kitchens return for no gain to the LaLaf 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6FG
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2155% → 57%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
45.5%
Flakes, Andre rush over right tackle for 2 yards to the UL27 (Lee, Taboris), PENALTY TROY illegal formation 5 yards to the UL34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 15
OPP 34
0
45.6%
Andre Flakes run for no gain to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+10
45.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 10 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+2
45.7%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
43.1%
Jed Solomon 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.4%
Jordan Davis run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
42.8%
Davis, Jordan sideline pass complete to McGuire, Elijah for 6 yards to the UL39 (Cain, Demetrius), PENALTY UL ineligible downfield on pass (Anderson, O.) 5 yards to the UL28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
42.5%
Jordan Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
42.2%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Gary Haynes, broken up by A.J. SmileySimilar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:4559% → 63%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
40.7%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+62
37.0%
Teddy Ruben 62 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Jed Solomon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4736% → 40%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
35.5%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 11 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
36.0%
Jordan Davis sacked by Justin Lucas for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+7
34.4%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 7 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
34.4%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 10 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+6
35.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
35.9%
Jordan Davis run for 8 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+23
36.2%
Torrey Pierce run for 8 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, personal foul (William Lloyd) to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
40.2%
Elijah McGuire 18 Yd Run (Carlos Alvarez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
36.6%
Brandon Burks run for 11 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
36.4%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
36.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 10 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
35.7%
Silvers, B. middle pass complete to Ruben, Teddy for no gain to the TROY46 (DeGrange, Z.), PENALTY TROY face mask (Douglas, D.) 15 yards to the TROY31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+7
36.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 7 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+4
36.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 4 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 14
OWN 42
0
36.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jarvis BentleySimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
36.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Reginald Miles blocked by Reginald MilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
37.4%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
37.3%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-10
36.7%
Davis, Jordan rush right for 3 yards to the TROY31, PENALTY UL holding (Anderson, O.) 10 yards to the TROY44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 20
OPP 44
0
35.9%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Elijah McGuire, broken up by A.J. SmileySimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
35.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:5067% → 74%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
32.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete, broken up by Dominique TovellSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+7
32.7%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+9
32.6%
Brandon Burks run for 9 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
32.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 15 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
31.2%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+7
31.1%
Josh Anderson run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
31.0%
Andre Flakes run for no gain to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
31.1%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+5
31.3%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
25.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John Johnson, broken up by Troy McCollumSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13FG
12 plays · 33 yds · 2:2131% → 31%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
31.1%
Jordan Davis run for 8 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+9
31.8%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 9 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
31.5%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+1
30.8%
Jordan Davis run for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+12
30.5%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Al Riles for 12 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+8
31.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
32.4%
McGuire, Elijah rush over right end for 1 yard to the TROY23, PENALTY TROY offside (Peek, Garrett) 5 yards to the TROY19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 5
OPP 19
0
32.4%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-5
32.4%
Jordan Davis sacked by William Lloyd for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
28.4%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
31.2%
Carlos Alvarez 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
28.0%
Brandon Burks run for 8 yds to the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 4:0929% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
29.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
29.0%
Jordan Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+12
28.6%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Devin Scott for 12 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
29.5%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Gary Haynes for 14 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
31.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 20 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
32.2%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+3
32.2%
Torrey Pierce run for 3 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+16
31.4%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Gary Haynes for 16 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
32.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+6
32.2%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Al Riles for 6 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-3
31.6%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 7Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+7
40.6%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 7 yds for a TD, (Carlos Alvarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:5562% → 79%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
37.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 8 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
36.3%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+8
37.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
21.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 67 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0023% → 25%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
23.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 1
OWN 27
-1
24.2%
Jordan Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
23.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
23.7%
Montrel Carter run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
24.6%
Montrel Carter run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
24.8%
Jordan Davis run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
25.4%
Montrel Carter run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-5
25.4%
Jordan Davis sacked by Rashad Dillard for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 35 Jordan Davis fumbled, recovered by Troy Garrett Peek , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:1284% → 87%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
16.1%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+9
15.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 9 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
15.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 11 yds to the LaLaf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
15.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 3 yds to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
15.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+4
16.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 4 yds to the LaLaf 4Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
13.4%
Jed Solomon 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:3916% → 6%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
15.7%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Gary Haynes for 9 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
16.5%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Nick ByrneSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
5.6%
Jordan Davis run for a loss of 4 yards Jordan Davis fumbled, recovered by Troy Demetrius Cain , return for 17 yds, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:016% → 4%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
5.5%
Jordan Davis run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
5.5%
Jordan Davis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
5.6%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Gary Haynes for 3 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
4.3%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
4.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 41 yds, downed at the Troy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0997% → 97%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
3.0%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
3.0%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+4
3.0%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
2.9%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
3.0%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+5
3.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
3.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 47 yds, downed at the LaLaf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 42 yds · 4:283% → 1%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
2.5%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Gary Haynes for 11 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+47
2.5%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Devin Scott for 47 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
3.1%
Torrey Pierce run for 6 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-6
3.1%
Montrel Carter run for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+8
2.8%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Gary Haynes for 8 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+4
3.0%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Montrel Carter for 4 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
3.1%
Jordan Davis run for 1 yd to the Troy 13Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-15
3.1%
Davis, Jordan sideline pass incomplete to Scott, Devin, PENALTY UL pass interference (Riles, Al) 15 yards to the TROY28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 24
OPP 28
-15
1.6%
Davis, Jordan sideline pass complete to Scott, Devin for 28 yards to the TROY0, clock 07:32, PENALTY UL face mask (Horst, Grant) 15 yards to the TROY43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 39
OPP 43
+5
1.5%
Davis, Jordan sideline pass complete to Haynes, Gary for 8 yards to the TROY35, PENALTY TROY offside (Dillard, Rashad) 5 yards to the TROY38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 34
OPP 38
0
1.5%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Gabe Fuselier, broken up by Jalen RountreeSimilar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 34
OPP 38
0
1.5%
Jordan Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 34
OPP 38
-4
1.1%
Jordan Davis sacked by Tyler Roberts for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:1099% → 100%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
1.1%
Brandon Burks run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
1.1%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
1.1%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-1
1.1%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+5
1.1%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 8
OPP 43
-10
0.5%
Burks, Brandon rush over left end for 14 yards to the UL29, PENALTY TROY holding (Hill, Gabe) 10 yards to the TROY47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 18
OWN 47
+14
0.5%
Brandon Burks run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.7%
Jordan Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+20
0.7%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Gary Haynes for 5 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, personal foul (A.J. Smiley) to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.8%
Jordan Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
0.8%
Jordan Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+12
0.8%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Devin Scott for 12 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
0.9%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Devin Scott for 3 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
0.9%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Gary Haynes for 1 yd to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
0.9%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete, broken up by Carnell SimonSimilar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 6
OPP 25
0
0.8%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Montrel Carter, broken up by Daniel WarrenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.3%
KE'Marvin Pitts run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
0.3%
KE'Marvin Pitts run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
0.3%
KE'Marvin Pitts run for 2 yds to the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:56
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 67 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
-16.1
FUMBLE · Q3 2:31
Jordan Davis run for a loss of 4 yards Jordan Davis fumbled, recovered by Troy Demetrius Cain , return for 17 yds, (Jed Solomon KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q3 10:51
Jordan Davis pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 7 yds for a TD, (Carlos Alvarez KICK)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com