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NMSU

New Mexico State 37 at Louisiana 34

UL
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:37 · Anthony Torres punt for 46 yds , Gary Haynes returns for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Pregame prior+6.8Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−3.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:25: Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +28.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:37: Elijah McGuire run for 27 yds for a TD, (Aaron Bird KICK) — UL win probability +26.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:27: Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 31 yds for a TD, (Aaron Bird KICK) — UL win probability +21.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:59: Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +33.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:29: Parker Davidson 21 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +31.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10NMSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51UL 4th & 4 at NMSU 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:51NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:51UL 4th & 9 at UL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:11NMSU 4th & 10 at UL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:41NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:00UL 4th & 1 at UL 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:08UL 4th & 8 at UL 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:27UL 4th & 6 at NMSU 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00UL 4th & 19 at UL 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−3.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:25NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:34UL 4th & 2 at NMSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−1.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−7.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:19NMSU 4th & 1 at UL 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−2.7
    84% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−11.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:27UL 4th & 4 at NMSU 14, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−11.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:27NMSU 4th & 2 at UL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%−1.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−10.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:25UL 4th & 7 at UL 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:37NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−6.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:27NMSU 4th & 2 at UL 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−1.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−5.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:59UL 4th & 6 at UL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−2.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:29NMSU 4th & 2 at UL 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%−8.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−43.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 3:50UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:08NMSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:04UL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:41NMSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:25NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:37UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:27UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−1.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:59NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
83.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+4
83.9%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
83.9%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
83.9%
Anthony Torres punt for 19 yds, downed at the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2MISSED FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:5284% → 83%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.7%
Brooks Haack pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
83.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+12
83.7%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 12 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
83.7%
Brooks Haack sacked by Noah Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+2
83.7%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 32 Elijah McGuire fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Jalen Nixon , return for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+11
83.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 11 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
82.9%
Stevie Artigue 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
82.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-1
82.7%
Nick Jeanty run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+15
82.8%
Jeanty, Nick SO pass incomplete to Morgan, T, PENALTY UL pass interference (Watson, Jevante) 15 yards to the NMSU39, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.5%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
82.6%
Nick Jeanty run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
82.6%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by Zachary DeGrangeSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+6
82.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 35 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 6 yds to the LaLaf 47 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
82.1%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
82.1%
Torrey Pierce run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
82.0%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Elijah McGuire for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+18
81.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 52 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 18 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:5519% → 20%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-8
81.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 18
OWN 37
0
81.4%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+4
81.4%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 14
OWN 41
+20
81.4%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 20 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
80.9%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
80.7%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by Dominick JonesSimilar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
80.8%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
81.0%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
80.3%
Parker Davidson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2180% → 82%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
80.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 27 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
80.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+17
80.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
82.3%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 20 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0919% → 18%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
81.5%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
82.1%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+7
82.1%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
81.9%
Andrew Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
81.5%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
81.7%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
82.2%
Anthony Torres punt for 34 yds , Gary Haynes returns for no gain to the LaLaf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
81.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+2
81.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
81.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
81.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 yds , Tyrain Taylor returns for no gain to the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:2019% → 24%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
81.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
81.3%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
81.4%
Allen, Andrew middle pass incomplete to Moore, Rayvean, PENALTY UL pass interference (Brown, Savion) 14 yards to the NMSU38, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.6%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
80.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+58
76.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 58 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
77.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 5 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+5
77.8%
Torrey Pierce run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
77.8%
Torrey Pierce run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 24 Torrey Pierce fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Torrey PierceSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+4
77.5%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 4 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+6
77.1%
Brooks Haack run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
77.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:0326% → 28%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+40
74.4%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 40 yds to the LaLaf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.0%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-9
74.0%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
74.5%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
71.9%
Parker Davidson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0474% → 80%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.5%
Brooks Haack run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
73.4%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Nick Byrne for 10 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
79.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 64 yds for a TD, (Aaron Bird KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:2322% → 34%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
78.5%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+21
78.4%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 21 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
77.3%
Larry Rose III run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
76.5%
Jermichael Selders run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+15
76.5%
Jermichael Selders run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
76.0%
Rayvean Moore pass incomplete to Tyrain Taylor, broken up by Troy McCollumSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
76.1%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+21
66.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 21 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:1470% → 71%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 9 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
71.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.7%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+20
70.6%
Brooks Haack run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
72.2%
Torrey Pierce run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+14
73.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
73.3%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 6 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
73.3%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
72.1%
Jalen Nixon run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
73.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
73.3%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
72.2%
Brooks Haack run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
71.3%
Aaron Bird 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15END OF HALF
9 plays · 0 yds · 1:1731% → 37%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+28
68.9%
Larry Rose III run for 28 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.4%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Tyrain Taylor, broken up by Tracy WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
66.4%
Andrew Allen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 9
50
+10
66.6%
Andrew Allen run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
65.0%
Andrew Allen run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+23
62.6%
Larry Rose III run for 23 yds to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.6%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
68.3%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 1 yd to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-10
67.7%
Brooks Haack sacked by Kourtland Busby for a loss of 10 yards to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
65.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 48 yds , Tyrain Taylor returns for no gain to the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
65.0%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
65.2%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
65.9%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
67.1%
Anthony Torres punt for 27 yds, downed at the LaLaf 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
68.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 19 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
69.9%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
69.9%
Torrey Pierce run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+2
68.6%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 2
OPP 27
-2
67.0%
Torrey Pierce run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
62.8%
Larry Rose III run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
60.9%
Larry Rose III run for 18 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
60.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Zachary DeGrangeSimilar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+14
60.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 14 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
58.8%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+1
58.8%
Andrew Allen run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
60.2%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-2
62.0%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:4662% → 70%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
62.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 20 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
63.4%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 33 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
67.7%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for no gain to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
67.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Torrey Pierce for 11 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
67.7%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
67.7%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Devin Scott for 6 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
62.9%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
69.8%
Aaron Bird 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0235% → 66%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
64.6%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
63.4%
Andrew Allen run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
61.5%
Andrew Allen run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
62.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Abram Holland for 7 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
60.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 4 yds to the ULLAFAYTTE 49 for a 1ST down UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Savion Brown) to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
58.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+6
61.7%
Andrew Allen run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+5
60.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 5 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+3
62.0%
Andrew Allen run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
33.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
42.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
42.1%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
40.5%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
39.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 45 yds, downed at the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3264% → 61%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
35.6%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
33.6%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Tracy WalkerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
33.9%
Andrew Allen sacked by Zachary DeGrange for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+7
39.0%
Anthony Torres punt for 40 yds , Gary Haynes returns for 7 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:2538% → 69%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
37.6%
Haack, Brooks deep out pass complete to McGuire, Elijah for 41 yards to the NMSU27, PENALTY UL holding (Anderson, O.) 10 yards to the UL22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+4
36.4%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 4 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+14
36.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 14 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
39.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
40.5%
Brooks Haack run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+5
41.7%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
42.5%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 20 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
69.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 27 yds for a TD, (Aaron Bird KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0043% → 39%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
56.9%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
58.1%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-5
59.0%
Andrew Allen run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 24 Andrew Allen fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Andrew AllenSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 13
OWN 24
+2
61.5%
Anthony Torres punt for 46 yds , Gary Haynes returns for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:4162% → 90%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
62.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
61.8%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+9
60.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 9 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
65.5%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Devin Scott for 11 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
67.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
68.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
68.2%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+31
90.0%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 31 yds for a TD, (Aaron Bird KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:2818% → 55%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
82.2%
Larry Rose III run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
81.3%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
78.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+4
81.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+5
83.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 5 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
78.8%
Andrew Allen run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
78.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+23
45.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 54%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.3%
Brooks Haack run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
58.7%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete, broken up by Jassavia ReeseSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
56.6%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
53.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 5 yds, downed at the LaLaf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:3158% → 88%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
41.6%
Larry Rose III run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
40.9%
Andrew Allen run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+12
40.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 12 yds to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
40.9%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
40.9%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.1%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+21
12.1%
Parker Davidson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 30INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.7%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Nick ByrneSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
28.8%
Brooks Haack pass intercepted Rodney Butler return for no gain to the LaLaf 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
10.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 14
OPP 41
-4
10.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:59
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-33.6
FG · Q4 1:29
Parker Davidson 21 yd FG GOOD
-31
TD · Q3 1:25
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-28
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com