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ULM

UL Monroe 3 at Texas State 16

TXST
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2015 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:31 · Chris Qualls punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior+16.8Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:42: Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 20 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK) — TXST win probability +7.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:22: Robert Lowe run for 12 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST down — TXST win probability +4.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49: Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus Green — ULM win probability +4.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:37: Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the LaMon 1 — TXST win probability +5.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:13: Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 16 yds for a TD, (James Sherman PAT MISSED) — TXST win probability +7.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 12ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 13:23ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22TXST 4th & 6 at ULM 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:31ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:24TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:31ULM 4th & 6 at TXST 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:28ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:23TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:04ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:25TXST 4th & 24 at TXST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:25ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:46TXST 4th & 7 at ULM 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:03ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:31TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−4.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:05TXST 4th & 10 at ULM 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−8.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:38ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:56TXST 4th & 9 at ULM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−8.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:19ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:23TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 38, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−1.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:44ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 39, down 13
    Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:43TXST 4th & 6 at ULM 43, up 13
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:13ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−1.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:00TXST 4th & 2 at ULM 8, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%−0.7
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 2:42TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 9:13TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2531% → 31%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.1%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
69.1%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 6 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
69.0%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
69.0%
Chris Qualls punt for 43 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 4 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:4769% → 69%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
68.9%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-5
68.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (C.J. Best) to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+23
68.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 23 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
69.0%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-4
69.1%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+20
68.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 20 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
69.1%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+16
69.1%
C.J. Best run for 16 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
69.1%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the LaMon 7Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
69.1%
Jones, Tyler pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXSTATE illegal formation 5 yards to the ULMONROE12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
69.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 8:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
68.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 6 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
69.1%
Lumi Kaba 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4531% → 31%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.0%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.0%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
69.2%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
69.4%
Chris Qualls punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5669% → 68%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
68.9%
Tyler Jones sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+1
68.8%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+4
68.4%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
68.3%
Lumi Kaba punt for 31 yds, downed at the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:4231% → 34%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
68.8%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Jared Mapps for 5 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+10
68.5%
Ben Luckett run for 10 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
68.1%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 3 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+15
67.9%
Luckett, Ben rush for loss of 4 yards to the ULMONROE40, PENALTY TEXSTATE face mask (Jeter-Gilmon, Jerrid) 15 yards to the TEXSTATE41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULMONROE.Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
67.7%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Jared Mapps for 5 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+7
67.5%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
67.1%
Ben Luckett run for 14 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
66.9%
DeVontae McNeal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
66.6%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ben Luckett for 2 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
66.9%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
65.9%
Craig Ford 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:1767% → 67%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+18
67.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 18 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
67.2%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
67.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 13 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
67.9%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
68.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
67.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Lawrence WhiteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
66.6%
Lumi Kaba punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2234% → 34%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.9%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Jared Mapps for 5 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
65.5%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
65.7%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Harley ScioneauxSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
66.5%
Chris Qualls punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5967% → 67%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
66.8%
Tyler Jones run for 11 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
67.3%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
67.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 6 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-1
67.5%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
66.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 52 yds, downed at the LaMon 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:1135% → 36%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
65.5%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 4Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+15
65.4%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 15 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
64.9%
DeVontae McNeal run for 5 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+1
64.3%
Kaylon Watson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+3
64.7%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+7
64.4%
Chris Qualls punt for 34 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 7 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:3368% → 64%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
67.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 8 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-12
68.0%
C.J. Best run for a loss of 12 yards to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 14
OWN 41
-10
65.1%
Jones, Tyler pass complete to Gaines, Jafus for 15 yards to the ULMONROE44, PENALTY TEXSTATE holding (Sarabia, Brandon) 10 yards to the TEXSTATE31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 24
OWN 31
0
64.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 24
OWN 31
0
63.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 59 yds, downed at the LaMon 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5637% → 36%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
62.8%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+8
63.0%
Kaylon Watson run for 8 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
63.4%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
64.2%
Chris Qualls punt for 48 yds, downed at the TexSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:3566% → 75%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
65.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
50
+4
67.6%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+9
67.8%
C.J. Best run for 9 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
67.8%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
68.0%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST down C.J. Best for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
68.0%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
67.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Lawrence WhiteSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
75.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 20 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:5227% → 28%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.0%
DeVontae McNeal run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
72.4%
DeVontae McNeal run for 4 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
72.7%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
72.3%
Kaylon Watson run for no gain to the LaMon 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:0175% → 76%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
74.9%
Tim Gay run for 12 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
75.2%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 5 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
76.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for no gain to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+6
75.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
76.7%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+1
76.7%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 1 yd to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+12
75.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 12 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.8%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
77.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 3 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
77.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
75.7%
Lumi Kaba punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3825% → 22%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
74.6%
Earnest Carrington run for 7 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
73.7%
Ben Luckett run for 7 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.1%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
74.6%
Kaylon Watson run for 7 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-5
74.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, False Start (Keaton Baggs) to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
76.6%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
77.7%
Chris Qualls punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2380% → 79%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
80.3%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-2
80.1%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 12
OWN 26
-5
79.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Brandon Smith) to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 17
OWN 21
0
79.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Lawrence WhiteSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 17
OWN 21
+3
78.6%
Lumi Kaba punt for 38 yds , Junior Williams returns for 3 yds to the LaMon 44 Junior Williams fumbled, recovered by TexSt Inoke LangiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:1783% → 79%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
82.6%
Robert Lowe run for 12 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
83.4%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
83.5%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
83.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 9 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+4
83.7%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Michael Johnson) to the LaMon 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
83.8%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
83.8%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 5Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Lawrence WhiteSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
79.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Adrian Bellard) to the LaMon 10Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
79.3%
Lumi Kaba 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1623% → 20%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
77.1%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+2
77.8%
DeVontae McNeal run for 2 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
79.0%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
79.7%
Chris Qualls punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:3483% → 84%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
82.5%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
83.1%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
83.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
83.2%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+16
84.3%
Jones, Tyler pass incomplete, PENALTY ULMONROE personal foul 16 yards to the ULMONROE25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXSTATE.Similar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
85.5%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
85.8%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-4
85.7%
Tyler Jones sacked by Lorenzo Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 24Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
84.1%
Lumi Kaba 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3021% → 19%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.5%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
79.8%
Ben Luckett run for 6 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
79.6%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
81.2%
Chris Qualls punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5084% → 85%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
84.4%
Lowe, Robert rush for no gain to the TEXSTATE30, PENALTY TEXSTATE holding (Schoenborn, Kian) 10 yards to the TEXSTATE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 20
OWN 20
0
84.2%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+12
84.4%
Tyler Jones run for 12 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+6
84.5%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+1
84.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 37 yds , Junior Williams returns for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2418% → 17%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
82.4%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
80.7%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ben Luckett for 4 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
81.5%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 9 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
79.4%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for 6 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
79.2%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-6
80.1%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+73
83.2%
Earnest Carrington pass intercepted Aaron Shaw return for 73 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2489% → 96%
Q4 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
88.8%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
88.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (Giuliano Cattaneo) to the LaMon 16Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
96.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 16 yds for a TD, (James Sherman PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:065% → 5%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
94.6%
Earnest Carrington run for no gain to the LaMon 23Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+16
95.0%
Earnest Carrington run for 16 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
94.5%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Kaylon WatsonSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
94.9%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
95.3%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
95.5%
Chris Qualls punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:4797% → 98%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
96.8%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+7
97.0%
C.J. Best run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+21
97.3%
Robert Lowe run for 21 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
97.6%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
97.7%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+1
97.9%
C.J. Best run for 1 yd to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
97.7%
Lumi Kaba punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:243% → 3%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.4%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 9 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-1
97.3%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · -16 yds · 2:5598% → 99%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
98.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 3 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+4
98.5%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+5
98.7%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 5 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
98.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 7 yds to the LaMon 9Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 9
-1
98.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 10Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+2
99.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 8
-36
99.2%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 36 yards to the LaMon 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:42
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 20 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q4 9:13
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 16 yds for a TD, (James Sherman PAT MISSED)
+7.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:37
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the LaMon 1
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com