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GASO

Georgia Southern 45 at Troy 10

TROY
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFUMBLETDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense−17.0Pregame prior−13.1Score differential−8.1Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 11:46: Jed Solomon 20 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +2.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:19: Matt Breida run for 3 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — TROY win probability +2.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:54: Myles Campbell run for 20 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +6.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:24: Kevin Ellison pass complete to James Dean for 23 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +6.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:40: LA Ramsby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +8.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:46TROY 4th & 3 at GASO 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.5%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:47GASO 4th & 6 at TROY 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−2.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:54TROY 4th & 8 at GASO 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:06GASO 4th & 2 at TROY 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−1.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:25GASO 4th & 5 at TROY 35, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%−0.5
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:14TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03TROY 4th & 10 at midfield, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 3 at TROY 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−5.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:50TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:55GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.9%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:55GASO 4th & 1 at TROY 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:19GASO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:54GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:24GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:40GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:54GASO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:38GASO Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:1426% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
25.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 14 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
25.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 26 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
25.8%
Andre Flakes run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30 Andre Flakes fumbled, forced by Antwione Williams, recovered by Troy Dalton BennettSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+10
25.8%
Brandon Burks run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
25.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 8 yds to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+2
25.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 2 yds to the GeoSo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
25.8%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
25.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
25.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q1 11:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
27.8%
Jed Solomon 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
28.5%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 5 yards Kevin Ellison fumbled, recovered by Troy Demetrius Cain , return for 19 yds, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 6:0972% → 70%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
28.4%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+2
28.4%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+8
28.5%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
28.3%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+5
28.5%
Ellison,K. deep pass incomplete to Keaton,D., PENALTY TROY offside defense (Dillard, Rashad) 5 yards to the GS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+3
28.4%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+18
28.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
28.1%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Bj Johnson for 19 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
28.1%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
28.1%
LA Ramsby run for 9 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-5
28.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+9
28.2%
Favian Upshaw run for 9 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.4%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
31.3%
Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
30.9%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Caleb Williams return for 16 yds to the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:4269% → 69%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
30.8%
Favian Upshaw run for 5 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+5
30.8%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
30.8%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
30.8%
Favian Upshaw run for no gain to the Troy 6Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
31.1%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Bj JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
31.1%
Younghoe Koo 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4733% → 34%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.5%
Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
32.4%
Brandon Burks run for 14 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
33.0%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
33.4%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
34.3%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
33.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:1467% → 74%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
32.8%
Matt Breida run for 16 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
31.4%
Ellison,K. rush quarterback draw for 17 yards to the TROY32 (Kitchens, M.), PENALTY GS holding (Kwon,A.) 10 yards to the GS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+4
32.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+35
32.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Malik Henry for 35 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
26.4%
Myles Campbell run for 20 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+32
28.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 32 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
29.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for no gain to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
29.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 4 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+5
29.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-7
30.0%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
28.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Derek Keaton at the GeoSo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:4172% → 74%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
28.3%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
28.3%
LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+29
28.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 29 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
26.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
26.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
26.6%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+3
27.5%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
26.5%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Derek KeatonSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
26.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 5 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
26.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Wesley FieldsSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
25.9%
Kevin Ellison punt for 33 yds, downed at the Troy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
26.4%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
26.3%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
25.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 6
OWN 6
+21
25.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 48 yds , Derek Keaton returns for 21 yds to the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 1:2077% → 84%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
23.1%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
23.2%
Matt Breida run for 10 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
16.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to James Dean for 23 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 30 yds · 1:2118% → 19%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
18.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+13
18.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 13 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
19.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 5 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
19.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+8
19.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
50
0
20.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
50
0
20.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
50
0
19.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 10
50
0
18.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13TD
18 plays · 83 yds · 8:2082% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
18.0%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+31
17.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 31 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
16.7%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+4
16.8%
LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+8
16.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
16.5%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
16.5%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+2
16.7%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+4
18.1%
LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
16.5%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+1
16.5%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+1
16.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+6
14.0%
Koo,Y. field goal attempt from 31 GOOD, clock 07:45, PENALTY TROY personal foul 6 yards to the TROY7, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
12.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
12.5%
Favian Upshaw run for 15 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
12.5%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.0%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
7.3%
Brandon Burks run for 8 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+1
7.6%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+17
7.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 17 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
8.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 15 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
8.4%
Andre Flakes run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 44 Andre Flakes fumbled, forced by Antwione Williams, recovered by GeoSo Tay HicklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 4:4997% → 97%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
3.4%
Wesley Fields run for 9 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-10
3.3%
Fields,W. rush left for 6 yards to the TROY41, PENALTY GS holding (Foreman,D.) 10 yards to the GS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+5
3.5%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+10
3.5%
LA Ramsby run for 10 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
3.4%
Matt Breida run for 13 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
3.2%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+2
3.3%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-10
2.4%
Upshaw,F. rush quarterback draw for 28 yards to the TROY0, clock 00:48, PENALTY GS holding (Kwon,A.) 10 yards to the TROY38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 19
OPP 38
-14
2.5%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 14 yards to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 33
OWN 48
0
2.6%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 37 yds, downed at the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
3.6%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
3.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
3.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre Douglas, broken up by Darius JonesSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+9
3.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 50 yds , Derek Keaton returns for 9 yds to the GeoSo 28 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (Caleb Williams) to the GeoSo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 12:0198% → 100%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
2.3%
Matt Breida run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
2.2%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
2.2%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
2.2%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q4 13:55
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+6
2.5%
LA Ramsby run for 6 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
2.2%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Ryan Longoria for 8 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+6
2.1%
LA Ramsby run for 6 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
2.1%
LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
2.1%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+5
2.1%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 13:55
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+1
2.5%
LA Ramsby run for 1 yd to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
2.1%
Wesley Fields run for 6 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 4
OPP 18
-1
2.1%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+12
2.1%
Wesley Fields run for 12 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
2.1%
Chaz Thornton run for 1 yd to the Troy 6Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
2.1%
Favian Upshaw run for 4 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Chaz Thornton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.1%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to K.D. Edenfield, broken up by Tay HicklinSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
0.1%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 3 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-61
0.1%
Riyahd Jones 61 Yd Fumble Return (Younghoe Koo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.1%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:40
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q2 1:24
Kevin Ellison pass complete to James Dean for 23 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q2 11:54
Myles Campbell run for 20 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com