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NMSU

New Mexico State 31 at Texas State 21

TXST
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:10 · Anthony Torres punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+25.7Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:53: Tyler Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK) — TXST win probability +6.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:25: Nick Jeanty pass complete to Clayton Granch for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +16.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:53: Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 21 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK) — TXST win probability +14.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:12: Larry Rose III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +31.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:26: Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 77 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +21.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:22TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:10NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:25NMSU 4th & 4 at TXST 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:30TXST 4th & 9 at NMSU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:10NMSU 4th & 9 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:42NMSU 4th & 1 at TXST 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−0.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:59NMSU 4th & 10 at TXST 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:44NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:09NMSU 4th & 3 at TXST 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.6%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:25TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:09NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:12TXST 4th & 2 at midfield, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%−3.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:18TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 29, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:06NMSU 4th & 1 at TXST 49, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:22NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:53TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:39TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:25NMSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:53TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:12NMSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:26NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3818% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.7%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
81.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
81.7%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
81.7%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
81.7%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+9
81.7%
Nick Jeanty run for 9 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
81.7%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+12
81.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 12 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
81.7%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
81.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 6 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+22
79.6%
Larry Rose III run for 22 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
79.8%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
79.9%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
79.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
79.9%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
79.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 38 yds, downed at the NMxSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
79.1%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
79.1%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-7
79.2%
Nick Jeanty sacked by Karee Berry for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
79.4%
Anthony Torres punt for 50 yds, downed at the TexSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
78.5%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-2
78.6%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 37 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Stephen MeredithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
77.6%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jordan Bergstrom, broken up by Brandon McDowellSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
77.6%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
77.6%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
77.9%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6MISSED FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 4:1278% → 75%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
77.7%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+10
77.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 10 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
78.0%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
78.0%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+1
77.7%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+30
77.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 30 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
78.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 7 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+7
78.5%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
78.5%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
78.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+5
78.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-5
78.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
78.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
75.4%
Lumi Kaba 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:2025% → 26%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
74.8%
Larry Rose III run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
74.4%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-2
74.1%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+9
74.3%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
74.0%
Jeanty, Nick pass incomplete, PENALTY NMSU intentional grounding (Jeanty, Nick) 2 yards to the NMSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+7
74.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 7 yds Tyrain Taylor fumbled, forced by Javante O'Roy, recovered by NMxSt Rayvean Moore , return to the 50 yard line , return for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 9
50
0
73.5%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 9
50
0
74.1%
Anthony Torres punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:0073% → 73%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
73.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 19 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
73.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+5
73.5%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
73.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
72.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 59 yds, downed at the NMxSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9FG
16 plays · 87 yds · 4:4327% → 33%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
72.9%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+5
72.9%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+8
72.8%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+47
72.5%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 47 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
71.0%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
71.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 7 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+5
71.1%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
70.9%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
71.0%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
71.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 5 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
71.8%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
70.9%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
66.7%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 10:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
67.1%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Joshua Bowen, broken up by Damani AlexceeSimilar
Q2 9:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
67.2%
Parker Davidson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0666% → 74%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
66.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 13 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
66.9%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
67.1%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
67.7%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+22
67.9%
Robert Lowe run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
68.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 9 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-1
68.8%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
67.9%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
74.4%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.1%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
70.5%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+8
71.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 8 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
71.1%
Anthony Torres punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:3070% → 80%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
70.1%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+48
71.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 48 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
73.8%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
73.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+15
72.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 15 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
73.8%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
79.7%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:2321% → 23%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+36
78.7%
Larry Rose III run for 36 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
75.9%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+7
74.9%
Nick Jeanty run for 7 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-1
75.3%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+46
77.0%
Parker Davidson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
77.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
76.0%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
74.9%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
76.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-8
76.5%
Tyler Jones sacked by Stephen Meredith for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+10
74.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 10 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+5
74.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 54 yds , Joshua Bowen returns for 5 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
20 plays · 89 yds · 5:5925% → 47%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
74.6%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 11
OWN 10
0
74.8%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Joshua Bowen, broken up by Aaron ShawSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+15
75.8%
Jeanty, Nick deep out pass incomplete to Taylor, Tyrain, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Mims, David) 15 yards to the NMSU25, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.4%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Clayton GranchSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
74.6%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
73.5%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+11
72.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 11 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
71.2%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
71.8%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+16
73.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 16 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
70.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 5 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+7
69.9%
Nick Jeanty run for 7 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
69.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+6
69.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 6 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+6
71.1%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 6 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.9%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
69.9%
Jeanty, Nick slant pass incomplete to Caldwell, Royce, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Alexcee, Damani) 5 yards to the TXST2, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
69.9%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.9%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Clayton Granch for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.8%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
61.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
60.1%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
57.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
54.7%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
53.0%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-1
54.7%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
57.3%
Anthony Torres punt for 31 yds , Tyler Watts returns for no gain to the TexSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:0260% → 79%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
59.8%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
59.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+10
56.6%
Jones, Tyler deep out pass incomplete to Smith, Brandon, PENALTY NMSU holding (Hill, Lewis) 10 yards to the NMSU47, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
61.3%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
61.5%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+17
60.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 17 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
63.6%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
63.6%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
78.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 21 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20TD
18 plays · 78 yds · 4:3427% → 65%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
73.0%
Nick Jeanty sacked by David Mims for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+1
73.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+18
74.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 18 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.1%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
72.6%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 9 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
69.5%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
69.4%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-10
70.7%
Jeanty, Nick post pass incomplete to Taylor, Tyrain, PENALTY NMSU holding (McMeans, Anthony) 10 yards to the NMSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 20
OWN 36
0
73.2%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Rayvean MooreSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 20
OWN 36
+27
74.4%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 27 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
68.5%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
67.2%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Rayvean MooreSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+28
68.9%
Larry Rose III run for 28 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
66.7%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for no gain to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
66.7%
Jeanty, Nick slant pass incomplete to Bergstrom, Jordan, PENALTY TXST pass interference (McDowell, Brandon) 5 yards to the TXST2, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.7%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q4 10:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
35.3%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0046% → 48%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
46.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 17 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
49.9%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
49.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+7
46.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 2
50
0
48.2%
Lumi Kaba punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:0762% → 82%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
38.4%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 2 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
38.8%
Nick Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+77
17.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 77 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23INT
14 plays · 63 yds · 0:0017% → 22%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
16.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 3 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
17.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 5 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-6
17.0%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+23
14.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 23 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
19.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
19.3%
Jones, Tyler slant pass intercepted by Hood, Jonathan at the NMSU40, Hood, Jonathan return to the TXST12 (Lowe, Robert), PENALTY NMSU holding (Hood, Jonathan) 10 yards to the NMSU38, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
20.2%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
22.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+7
19.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 7 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
22.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+14
21.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 14 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
22.1%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
22.1%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Jacob Nwangwa return for no gain to the NMxSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 49 yds · 2:3088% → 96%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
11.9%
Nick Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+11
10.4%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+26
9.8%
Larry Rose III run for 26 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
8.3%
Xavier Hall run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
4.9%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 2
50
+1
4.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+13
4.2%
Anthony Torres punt for 36 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 13 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
3.1%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Jacob Nwangwa return for no gain to the TexSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 14
OPP 43
-5
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:12
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-31.4
TD · Q4 7:26
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 77 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-21
TD · Q3 5:25
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Clayton Granch for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com