Try the model
ULM

UL Monroe 14 at Troy 51

TROY
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD-3.4TROY 69.5%Garrett Smith pass complete to AjalenHolley for 30 yds for a TD, (CraigFord KICK)AWAY 14 - HOME 20 · Q1 0:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:53 · Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 30 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Home team on offense+0.9Score differential−0.1Pregame prior+14.5Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:46: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 43 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +4.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:53: Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 30 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +3.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:33: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 75 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +7.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:46: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 9 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +9.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 6:22: Garrett Smith pass intercepted for a TD LaMarcus Farmer return for 55 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +7.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 8ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 20 at ULM 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:53TROY 4th & 3 at ULM 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:05TROY 4th & 2 at ULM 11, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:53ULM 4th & 10 at TROY 30, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 33, down 13
    Close callPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:46ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 44, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.6%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:19ULM 4th & 30 at TROY 49, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00TROY 4th & 5 at ULM 21, up 34
    Close callWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:41TROY 4th & 5 at ULM 16, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:09TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 34, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:16ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 41, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:58TROY 4th & 3 at ULM 3, up 37
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:58ULM 4th & 8 at TROY 46, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:14TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 37, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:07TROY 4th & 8 at ULM 29, up 37
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:38ULM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:46TROY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:53ULM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:33TROY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:46TROY Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:22TROY Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:35TROY Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
69.0%
Kaylon Watson run for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+5
69.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 5 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-7
69.0%
Garrett Smith sacked by William Lloyd for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 15Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
69.0%
Chris Qualls punt for 35 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:0269% → 69%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
50
+26
68.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 26 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
69.0%
Brandon Burks run for 17 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
69.0%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the LaMon 5Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
68.9%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
68.9%
Jed Solomon 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4631% → 30%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
68.8%
DeVontae McNeal run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
68.8%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+27
70.0%
Garrett Smith sacked by Tyler Roberts for a loss of 2 yards Garrett Smith fumbled, recovered by Troy Darrin Reddick , return for 0 yards , return for 27 yds, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
69.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Harley ScioneauxSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
69.9%
Garrett Smith sacked by Rashad Dillard for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 29 Garrett Smith fumbled, recovered by Troy Darrin Reddick , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FG
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:4271% → 73%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
70.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (Teddy Ruben) to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+5
70.5%
Silvers, B. middle pass complete to Johnson, John for 8 yards to the ULM26 (Caldwell, Trey), PENALTY ULM offside defense (Johnson, G) 5 yards to the ULM29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
70.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
70.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 10 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
70.6%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the LaMon 19Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-7
70.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 17
OPP 26
+15
71.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 15 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+28
73.3%
Jed Solomon 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2728% → 31%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.1%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
71.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 7 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
71.8%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Colby Mitchell) to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+13
72.1%
DeVontae McNeal run for 13 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
71.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+10
71.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 10 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
68.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 47 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:5271% → 75%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
70.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 5
50
+7
71.0%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
75.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 43 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5326% → 31%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
73.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 13 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
73.3%
Garrett Smith run for 10 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
73.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
72.6%
Kaylon Watson run for 5 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
72.7%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+7
72.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Stoney Hawkins for 7 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
72.4%
Kaylon Watson run for no gain to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
72.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
72.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+30
69.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 30 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
76.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 75 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3325% → 25%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
74.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Rashon Ceaser, broken up by Terris LewisSimilar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
74.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by LaMarcus FarmerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
74.8%
Chris Qualls punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:0777% → 87%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
77.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-10
77.2%
Flakes, Andre rush up middle for 5 yards to the 50 yardline (Kissinger, H), PENALTY TROY holding (Boring, J.) 10 yards to the TROY35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+9
76.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 9 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+13
76.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 13 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
77.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 8 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+11
77.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 11 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
77.3%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
77.3%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the LaMon 19Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+4
77.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, offside defense (Gerrand Johnson) to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
77.0%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
77.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 3 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
77.3%
Andre Flakes run for 1 yd to the LaMon 9Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
86.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 9 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12INT TD
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:2414% → 7%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
86.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 2 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+9
86.6%
Garrett Smith run for 9 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
86.4%
Garrett Smith run for 11 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 5 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
85.7%
Garrett Smith run for 4 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
85.7%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+8
86.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 8 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
85.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 5 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+55
93.1%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted for a TD LaMarcus Farmer return for 55 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
14 plays · 12 yds · 3:036% → 2%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
93.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Jeff Savage) to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 15
OWN 34
0
94.2%
Kaylon Watson run for no gain to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+24
94.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 24 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
93.5%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+7
96.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
96.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Colby Mitchell) to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 15
OPP 34
0
96.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 15
OPP 34
0
96.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 15
OPP 34
0
96.9%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 15
OPP 34
-15
97.7%
Smith, Garrett deep pass complete to Holley, Ajalen for 34 yards to the TROY0, clock 03:19, PENALTY ULM face mask (Scioneaux, H) 15 yards to the TROY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 30
OPP 49
+13
98.3%
Chris Qualls punt for 35 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 13 yds to the Troy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:3197% → 98%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
96.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
96.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 4 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-5
96.5%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+45
96.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 45 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
96.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 9 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
96.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+7
96.6%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the LaMon 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
96.8%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
96.7%
Andre Flakes run for 4 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 3 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
98.8%
Kaylon Watson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
98.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 13 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
98.2%
Brandon Burks run for 37 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete, broken up by Gerrand JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
98.3%
TROY Penalty, false start (Tyler Lassiter) to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+5
98.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 5 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+5
98.2%
Andre Flakes run for 5 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 21
0
98.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.7%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-1
98.7%
Kaylon Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 21 Kaylon Watson fumbled, forced by William Lloyd, recovered by Troy Lonnie GoshaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4999% → 99%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
98.9%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
98.9%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-4
98.9%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Mitch Lane for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 16Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
99.2%
Jed Solomon 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19INT
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
99.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 10 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
99.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+6
99.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 6 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+25
99.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 25 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
98.9%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
98.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Stoney HawkinsSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+16
99.0%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted LaMarcus Farmer return for 16 yds to the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.4%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+10
99.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 10 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John Johnson, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 6 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+5
99.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 5 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
99.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 17 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
99.4%
Garrett Smith sacked by D.J. Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
99.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for no gain to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
99.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
99.5%
Chris Qualls punt for 39 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for no gain to the Troy 41 UL MONROE Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22MISSED FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.6%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+3
99.6%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+5
99.6%
Silvers, B. deep pass incomplete, PENALTY ULM offside defense (Cagins, Tevyn) 5 yards to the TROY42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
99.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 4 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.6%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
99.6%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.6%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+14
99.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 14 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.6%
Andre Flakes run for 7 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+14
99.6%
Andre Flakes run for 14 yds to the LaMon 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
99.8%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.8%
Andre Flakes run for 6 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
99.8%
Jed Solomon 20 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Mitch LaneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+13
99.8%
Brayle Brown run for 13 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.8%
Ben Luckett run for 8 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
99.8%
Brayle Brown run for 1 yd to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
99.8%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
99.8%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
99.8%
Brayle Brown run for 1 yd to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Earnest Carrington pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Chris Qualls punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 15Similar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.8%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
99.8%
Brayle Brown pass complete to Marcus Green for 5 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
99.9%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+7
99.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Trey Page for 7 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+12
99.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Trey Page for 12 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Andre Flakes run for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Andre Flakes run for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Trey PageSimilar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Rashon Ceaser at the LaMon 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Earnest Carrington run for no gain to the LaMon 14Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
99.9%
Earnest Carrington run for 4 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+8
99.9%
Earnest Carrington pass intercepted Montres Kitchens return for 8 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
KE'Marvin Pitts run for 4 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-2
99.9%
KE'Marvin Pitts run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
99.9%
KE'Marvin Pitts run for no gain to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
KE'Marvin Pitts run for 1 yd to the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
100.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 23Similar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+2
100.0%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+14
100.0%
Ben Luckett run for 14 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
100.0%
Ben Luckett run for 5 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:46
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 9 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q2 6:22
Garrett Smith pass intercepted for a TD LaMarcus Farmer return for 55 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q1 0:33
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 75 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com