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ULM

UL Monroe 24 at Louisiana 30

UL
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:51 · Stevie Artigue 37 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+2.2Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor−4.1Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:14: Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 53 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +9.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:35: Craig Ford 29 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +5.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:50: Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +8.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:21: Brooks Haack run for 13 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UL win probability +27.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 3:10: Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 64 yds for a TD, (E. McGuire Run For Two-point Conversion) — UL win probability +53.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10ULM made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:27UL 4th & 7 at ULM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03ULM 4th & 4 at UL 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03UL 4th & 10 at UL 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:28ULM 4th & 10 at UL 29, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:14UL 4th & 6 at ULM 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:14ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 16, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:01UL 4th & 2 at ULM 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−0.8
    74% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−5.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:53UL 4th & 16 at ULM 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:14UL 4th & 9 at UL 28, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:06ULM 4th & 1 at UL 22, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−2.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:35ULM 4th & 11 at UL 11, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−8.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:50ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 36, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−3.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:48UL 4th & 13 at UL 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−4.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:58ULM 4th & 2 at UL 17, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%−1.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−9.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:58UL 4th & 2 at UL 28, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 47, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:17UL 4th & 12 at UL 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:26ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:21ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−6.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:51UL 4th & 3 at ULM 20, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−5.2
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−22.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:51ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−3.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:03ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:28ULM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:14ULM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:50UL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:21UL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    46.6%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    47.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:10UL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    78.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 2FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1776% → 76%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
76.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
76.0%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Elijah McGuireSimilar
Q1 14:44
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+1
76.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaMon 23Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
75.9%
Stevie Artigue 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2424% → 27%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
75.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 6 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
75.8%
DeVontae McNeal run for 1 yd to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
75.8%
Marcus Green run for 5 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
75.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 9 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
75.7%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-5
75.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+14
75.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 14 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
75.7%
DeVontae McNeal run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+5
75.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 5 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
75.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+27
73.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 27 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
73.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 4Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
73.3%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the LaLaf 4Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+1
73.1%
Jalen Nixon run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 8
OWN 5
-2
73.0%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (Jeryl Brazil) to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 10
OWN 3
0
73.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:1029% → 32%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
71.5%
Kaylon Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+7
71.6%
Garrett Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 28 Garrett Smith fumbled, recovered by LaMon Garrett Smith , return for 7 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-1
71.9%
Garrett Smith sacked by Dominique Tovell for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+29
68.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 29 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:1468% → 67%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.2%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 8 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
68.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
68.4%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 8 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
69.0%
Torrey Pierce run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
69.0%
Jalen Nixon run for 15 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
69.2%
Jalen Nixon run for 10 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
69.8%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
67.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
66.4%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Al Riles, broken up by Trey CaldwellSimilar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
66.5%
Stevie Artigue 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 14:14
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
66.3%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 12
OWN 16
0
66.6%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the LaMon 16Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 12
OWN 16
+4
67.0%
Chris Qualls punt for 39 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 4 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 5:3566% → 62%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
65.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 22 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
67.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+8
67.0%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 8 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-1
66.2%
Jalen Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+10
62.4%
Jalen Nixon run for 10 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
64.3%
Nixon, Jalen rush over left end for 3 yards to the ULM8 (Caldwell, Trey), PENALTY ULM offside (Jackson, L) 5 yards to the ULM6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 5
OPP 6
0
64.3%
Torrey Pierce run for no gain to the LaMon 6Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-1
64.3%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 7Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-10
63.3%
Nixon, Jalen rush quarterback draw for 4 yards to the ULM3 (Kissinger, H), PENALTY UL holding (Horst, Grant) 10 yards to the ULM17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 16
OPP 17
0
62.1%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+33
62.4%
Stevie Artigue 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:3938% → 48%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
61.6%
Kaylon Watson run for 7 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+53
51.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 53 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
53.8%
Jalen Nixon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
53.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
52.8%
Jalen Nixon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
52.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trey Caldwell at the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 4:3147% → 63%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
53.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 16 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
52.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
52.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Savion BrownSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+27
52.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 27 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
51.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
51.2%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+7
51.5%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
52.3%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
50.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon WatsonSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+10
51.1%
Kaylon Watson run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
50.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Zachary DeGrangeSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
50.9%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
51.4%
Garrett Smith sacked by Remaine Douglas for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
37.4%
Craig Ford 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
44.8%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
44.1%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-6
43.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:1041% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
40.6%
Brooks Haack run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+8
40.3%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 8 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
42.0%
Jalen Nixon run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
42.7%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
42.3%
Brooks Haack run for 15 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
42.7%
Torrey Pierce run for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+26
43.7%
Torrey Pierce run for 26 yds to the LaMon 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
43.7%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the LaMon 5Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
51.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0057% → 53%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
42.6%
Garrett Smith sacked by Blain Winston for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
45.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Harley Scioneaux, broken up by Zachary DeGrangeSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 15
OWN 36
0
45.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
46.7%
Chris Qualls punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaLaf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
45.3%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Elijah McGuire for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+3
44.9%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 3 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 13
OWN 21
0
43.6%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Al Riles, broken up by Ben BanoguSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
42.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 yds, downed at the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:1360% → 66%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
40.5%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+23
40.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 23 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
38.7%
Smith, Garrett sideline pass incomplete to Holley, Ajalen, PENALTY ULM holding (Baggs, Keaton) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 20
50
+7
39.4%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+9
39.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 9 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+9
38.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 9 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
38.0%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+1
38.0%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
39.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Troy McCollumSimilar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+35
34.4%
Craig Ford 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
36.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
36.9%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for 4 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
36.0%
Jalen Nixon run for no gain to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
34.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds , Trey Caldwell returns for no gain to the LaMon 26 Trey Caldwell fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:4868% → 68%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
31.9%
DeVontae McNeal run for 3 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+1
31.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+18
32.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Stoney Hawkins for 18 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
27.8%
DeVontae McNeal run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
28.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Tracy WalkerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
29.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Troy McCollumSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
31.8%
Chris Qualls punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
30.7%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+12
30.6%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 12 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
31.3%
Torrey Pierce run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
32.7%
Brooks Haack run for no gain to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-6
30.4%
Brooks Haack sacked by Hunter Kissinger for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
28.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trey Caldwell at the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0077% → 74%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
23.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
23.9%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-2
23.4%
Garrett Smith sacked by Dominique Tovell for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+15
25.6%
TEAM punt blocked by Chaiziere Malbrue blocked by Chaiziere Malbrue UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Keenan Barnes) to the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:3032% → 60%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
32.4%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 19
OPP 40
0
26.5%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Nick ByrneSimilar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 19
OPP 40
+15
24.1%
Coutts, Steven punt 40 yards to the ULM0, touchback, PENALTY ULM roughing the kicker (Moorehead, C) 15 yards to the ULM25, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
32.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
32.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
32.4%
Torrey Pierce run for no gain to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
59.8%
Brooks Haack run for 13 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 52%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.7%
Kaylon Watson run for no gain to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
44.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
45.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Tracy WalkerSimilar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+37
47.6%
Chris Qualls punt for 39 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 37 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2762% → 52%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
61.5%
Brooks Haack run for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+5
61.5%
Torrey Pierce run for 5 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
58.1%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
51.8%
Stevie Artigue 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
36.1%
DeVontae McNeal run for 2 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
36.3%
DeVontae McNeal run for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
37.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
39.5%
Chris Qualls punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
93.0%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 64 yds for a TD, (E. McGuire Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26FUMBLE
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0015% → 18%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.1%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
84.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Harley Scioneaux, broken up by Savion BrownSimilar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
86.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 8 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
83.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 9 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
79.9%
Garrett Smith run for 4 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
81.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
81.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Remaine DouglasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1095% → 96%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
94.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
95.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
95.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 42Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 13
OPP 42
-3
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:10
Brooks Haack pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 64 yds for a TD, (E. McGuire Run For Two-point Conversion)
+53.6
TD · Q4 7:21
Brooks Haack run for 13 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+27.4
TD · Q2 6:14
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 53 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com