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IDHO

Idaho 48 at New Mexico State 55

NMSU
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreIDHO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.6NMSU 47.0%Austin Rehkow 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 9:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:12 · Austin Rehkow 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 19Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Pregame prior−3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 9:51: Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +18.7 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  2. TD · Q4 5:09: Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd for a TD, (E. Penny Run For Two-point Conversion) — IDHO win probability +13.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:56: Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) IDAHO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — NMSU win probability +22.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:51: Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +38.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Larry Rose III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +27.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7IDHO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:55IDHO 4th & 9 at NMSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    55.8%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:12IDHO 4th & 7 at NMSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:12NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:57NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:44NMSU 4th & 7 at IDHO 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:32NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:27IDHO 4th & 1 at NMSU 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.4%−4.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:15IDHO 4th & 8 at NMSU 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−6.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:05IDHO 4th & 6 at NMSU 18, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:41NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:01IDHO 4th & 6 at IDHO 26, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:13NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 42, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:31IDHO 4th & 4 at NMSU 23, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−8.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:30IDHO 4th & 1 at IDHO 34, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:00IDHO 4th & 11 at IDHO 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:51NMSU 4th & 1 at IDHO 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−21.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−25.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7IDHO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:57IDHO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:32IDHO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:36NMSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:46IDHO Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:01NMSU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:39NMSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:13IDHO Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:30NMSU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:51NMSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:09IDHO Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    92.1%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.8%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:56NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:51NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−5.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IDHODrive 1FG
19 plays · 62 yds · 5:4854% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jante Boston for 7 yds to the Idaho 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
46.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 6 yds to the Idaho 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
46.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 5 yds to the Idaho 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
46.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 6 yds to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
46.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Callen HightowerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
46.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for no gain to the Idaho 49Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+12
46.5%
Matt Linehan run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
46.3%
Matt Linehan sacked by Stephen Meredith for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+6
46.4%
Elijhaa Penny run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
46.4%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+12
46.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 12 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
46.2%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+7
46.2%
Jake Luton run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
46.2%
Jake Luton run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
46.2%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
46.3%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
47.0%
Austin Rehkow 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
46.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+4
46.9%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
46.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+5
46.6%
Andrew Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+1
46.6%
Anthony Torres punt for 42 yds , Rueben Mwehla returns for 1 yd to the Idaho 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:2653% → 56%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
46.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Buck Cowan for 34 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
43.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 29 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.7%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
44.8%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
44.4%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 4 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
44.5%
Anthony Torres punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Idaho 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 5INT
9 plays · 49 yds · 1:5057% → 57%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
43.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+6
43.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jante Boston for 6 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
43.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 4 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+11
43.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 11 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
43.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Rueben Mwehla for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+9
42.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jante Boston for 9 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
42.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Derek Ibekwe) to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+37
42.7%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted Jaden Wright return for 37 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
44.6%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 15 yds to the Idaho 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
45.3%
Allen, Andrew pass complete to Bergstrom, J for 30 yards to the IDAHO18 (Edwards, Chris), PENALTY NMSU holding (Granch, Clayton) 10 yards to the NMSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+15
44.5%
Larry Rose III run for 15 yds to the Idaho 43Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+5
45.4%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the Idaho 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
45.4%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
45.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds to the Idaho 35Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
45.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
44.6%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:2858% → 59%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
41.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 7 yds to the Idaho 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-2
41.4%
Elijhaa Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
41.6%
Matt Linehan run for 6 yds to the Idaho 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.4%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
41.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
41.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Rueben Mwehla for 5 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
41.1%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Garren JacksonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
41.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+13
41.4%
Matt Linehan run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
41.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+28
40.8%
Elijhaa Penny run for 28 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.6%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Joshua Bowen, broken up by Chris EdwardsSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
34.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
34.2%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Joshua Bowen, broken up by Kevin WhiteSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+5
34.2%
Anthony Torres punt for 40 yds , Rueben Mwehla returns for 5 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 9FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:1260% → 61%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
40.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the Idaho 48Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
40.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Callen HightowerSimilar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
40.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Kareem Coles for 6 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
41.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
40.1%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Buck Cowan, broken up by Jacob NwangwaSimilar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+20
40.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
40.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 5 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-15
40.0%
IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 20
OPP 34
+12
40.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Buck Cowan for 12 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
40.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete, broken up by Dalton HerringtonSimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
39.1%
Austin Rehkow 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3928% → 38%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.9%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+54
28.0%
Larry Rose III run for 54 yds to the Idaho 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
30.7%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the Idaho 12Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
37.6%
Xavier Hall run for 12 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:3168% → 65%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+28
32.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Buck Cowan for 28 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
30.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+21
31.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 21 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
30.9%
Isaiah Saunders run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
30.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Isaiah Saunders, broken up by Rodney ButlerSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
32.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Callen HightowerSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
34.9%
Austin Rehkow 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:1132% → 32%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
32.1%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 20 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
33.1%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
32.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
31.7%
Andrew Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+1
32.3%
Anthony Torres punt for 29 yds , Callen Hightower returns for 1 yd to the Idaho 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 13FG
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:3172% → 81%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
27.8%
Elijhaa Penny run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
50
0
25.0%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
50
0
24.6%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Callen HightowerSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
50
+24
24.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 9 yds to the NEWMEXST 41 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Robert Wagner) to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+43
18.6%
Austin Rehkow 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.8%
Andrew Allen pass intercepted Marc Millan return for 6 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 15TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
12.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4518% → 24%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Dezmand Candielaria) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
17.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Anthony McMeans) to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+7
17.7%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
17.5%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+20
17.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 20 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
19.2%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
19.4%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 8 yds to the Idaho 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
19.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 47Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+37
19.6%
Larry Rose III run for 37 yds to the Idaho 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
21.2%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the Idaho 9Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
24.4%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) IDAHO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
18.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Rueben Mwehla for 6 yds to the Idaho 28Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-5
18.5%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Calvin White) to the Idaho 23Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
18.7%
Matt Linehan run for 3 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
19.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Callen HightowerSimilar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
19.3%
Austin Rehkow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Joshua Bowen at the NMxSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:3421% → 35%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
20.5%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Quinton BradleySimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
20.3%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+8
19.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 8 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+26
21.5%
Larry Rose III run for 26 yds to the Idaho 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
23.1%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
22.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 9 yds to the Idaho 23Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+6
22.9%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the Idaho 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
35.1%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 17 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 19FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 5:0871% → 81%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
29.0%
Matt Linehan run for 7 yds to the Idaho 42Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
28.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the Idaho 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
27.9%
Jake Luton run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
27.7%
Matt Linehan run for no gain to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+10
28.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jante Boston for 10 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
27.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
27.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
27.3%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Rueben Mwehla) to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+5
27.6%
Elijhaa Penny run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+6
28.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
18.7%
Austin Rehkow 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
20.4%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 4 yds Joshua Bowen fumbled, forced by Marc Millan, recovered by Idaho Dorian ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 21TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:3885% → 96%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
15.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+4
14.9%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
14.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
4.1%
Matt Linehan run for 19 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:438% → 19%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
8.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
8.4%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+61
18.9%
Royce Caldwell 61 Yd pass from Andrew Allen (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.7%
Elijhaa Penny run for 5 yds to the Idaho 30Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
13.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 4 yds to the Idaho 34Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
13.8%
Elijhaa Penny run for no gain to the Idaho 34Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
14.3%
Austin Rehkow punt for 59 yds, fair catch by Joshua Bowen at the NMxSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 1:5916% → 40%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
16.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-1
16.1%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+51
15.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 51 yds to the NEWMEXST 43 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
19.4%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds to the Idaho 40Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+13
19.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 13 yds to the Idaho 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
21.1%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the Idaho 20Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+16
21.1%
Andrew Allen run for 16 yds to the Idaho 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
21.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the Idaho 1Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.8%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4275% → 96%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
25.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 38 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
22.1%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+8
22.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Elijhaa Penny for 8 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+14
22.0%
Elijhaa Penny run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
21.3%
Isaiah Saunders run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+1
17.8%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+8
18.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 8 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
17.5%
Elijhaa Penny run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.6%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd for a TD, (E. Penny Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:136% → 30%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.7%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+35
6.1%
Andrew Allen run for 35 yds to the Idaho 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
7.6%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 21 yds to the Idaho 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
7.7%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 8 yds to the Idaho 4Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+3
7.7%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the Idaho 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.0%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) IDAHO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:5686% → 86%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.4%
Elijhaa Penny run for 3 yds to the Idaho 28Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
12.4%
Elijhaa Penny run for 1 yd to the Idaho 29Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
12.1%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Callen Hightower, broken up by Winston RoseSimilar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
13.3%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Kendrick Trotter) to the Idaho 24Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
13.6%
Austin Rehkow punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Joshua Bowen at the NMxSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 2:0621% → 61%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
20.5%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
19.7%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+23
18.1%
Andrew Allen run for 23 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
25.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 1 yd to the Idaho 44Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
24.8%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the Idaho 37Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
22.7%
Andrew Allen run for 4 yds to the Idaho 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
22.6%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
22.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 8 yds to the Idaho 25Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+16
22.3%
Larry Rose III run for 16 yds to the Idaho 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
26.3%
Andrew Allen run for 4 yds to the Idaho 5Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
26.4%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Ty Atencio for 3 yds to the Idaho 2Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
22.5%
Nick Jeanty run for 1 yd to the Idaho 1Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.5%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29END OF GAME TD
11 plays · 0 yds · 15:5150% → 84%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.3%
Elijhaa Penny run for 7 yds to the Idaho 32Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
47.0%
Matt Linehan sacked by Noah Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the Idaho 27Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-4
62.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Idaho 12 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Nick Jeanty for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-17
64.7%
Nick Jeanty run for a loss of 17 yards to the Idaho 29Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 27
OPP 29
-8
61.9%
Nick Jeanty sacked by Kaylyn Ayers for a loss of 8 yards to the Idaho 37Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 35
OPP 37
+23
59.2%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 23 yds to the Idaho 14Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+12
55.7%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds to the Idaho 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.2%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
-1
82.7%
Matt Linehan sacked by Javahn Fergurson for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 26Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 26
0
83.6%
Matt Linehan pass intercepted Terrill Hanks return for no gain to the NMxSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:51
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
+38.2
TD · OT 0:00
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
+27.5
TD · Q4 3:56
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) IDAHO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+22.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com