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TROY

Troy 41 at App State 44

APP
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:30 · Bentlee Critcher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 146Pregame prior+13.4Home team on offense+13.5Time remaining+0.2Defense timeouts−0.1Offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor+8.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 3:49: Teddy Ruben 11 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Jed Solomon Kick) — TROY win probability +36.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · OT 0:00: Taylor Lamb 2 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick) — APP win probability +41.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. FG · OT 0:00: Zach Matics 38 Yd Field Goal — APP win probability +16.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Jed Solomon 34 Yd Field Goal — TROY win probability +32.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Zach Matics 24 Yd Field Goal — APP win probability +18.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:05TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:24APP 4th & 3 at APP 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08APP 4th & 1 at APP 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:58TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:16TROY 4th & 5 at APP 5, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.5%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:11APP 4th & 3 at TROY 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    87.2%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:06TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:09APP 4th & 3 at TROY 12, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:37APP 4th & 7 at APP 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:30APP 4th & 6 at APP 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:56TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:59APP 4th & 12 at APP 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−11.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:05TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−5.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:30APP 4th & 10 at APP 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−12.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 14:05APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:11TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:05APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:35TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:52APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:59TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:09APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:49TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1INT TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:556% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
93.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+30
93.5%
Ronald Blair 30 Yd Interception Return (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
93.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for no gain to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
93.5%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Caleb Fuller and Stephen Burns for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-2
93.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 49 yds , Bobo Beathard returns for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
93.3%
Lamb, Taylor pass complete to Jones, Malachi for 10 yards to the APP37, out-of-bounds (Harris, Jalen), PENALTY APP holding (Burns, Barrett) 10 yards to the APP17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+4
93.2%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 16
OWN 21
0
93.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for no gain to the AppSt 21Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+13
93.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 13 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
93.2%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:137% → 9%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
93.2%
Brandon Burks run for 9 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+8
93.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 8 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
93.2%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+15
93.2%
Teddy Ruben run for 15 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
93.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 19 yds to the AppSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
93.1%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 6Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.5%
Brandon Burks 6 Yd Run (Jed Solomon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0392% → 91%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
91.9%
Cox, Marcus rush for 4 yards to the APP29 (Sanders, Trevon;Lewis, Terris), PENALTY APP illegal block (Collins, Parker) 12 yards to the APP13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
91.8%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 13Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
91.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+21
91.7%
Marcus Cox run for 21 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
91.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 40 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 3 yds to the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
91.0%
Brandon Burks run for 8 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+14
90.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 14 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
90.7%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
90.9%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
90.8%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
90.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon BurksSimilar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
91.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 3:4990% → 92%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
90.4%
Marcus Cox run for 13 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
90.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
50
+6
90.9%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
90.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Levi Duffield for 3 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
90.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
90.9%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Jones, Malachi, PENALTY TROY offside defense (Dillard, Rashad) 5 yards to the TROY34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+12
91.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 12 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
91.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 12 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
91.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.6%
Simms McElfresh 7 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FG
19 plays · 81 yds · 4:449% → 12%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
90.9%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
90.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+9
91.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 9 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
90.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 8 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+4
90.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 4 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
90.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 9 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+9
90.3%
Andre Flakes run for 9 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
90.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 4 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
90.2%
Andre Flakes run for 3 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
90.2%
Andre Flakes run for 4 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
90.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 13 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
89.9%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+12
90.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 12 yds to the AppSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
89.9%
Andre Flakes run for 4 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jarvis BentleySimilar
Q2 10:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jarvis BentleySimilar
Q2 10:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
88.3%
Jed Solomon 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:5789% → 89%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
88.6%
Simms McElfresh run for 9 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
89.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+16
88.8%
Terrence Upshaw run for 16 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
89.3%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+5
89.2%
Taylor Lamb run for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
89.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
88.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
88.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 5 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-3
88.2%
Teddy Ruben run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
88.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
89.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:4388% → 89%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
88.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 7 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+8
88.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 8 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
88.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 9 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+8
89.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 8 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
89.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+17
89.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 17 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
89.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Levi DuffieldSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
89.4%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+4
89.0%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
88.8%
Zach Matics 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.3%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
89.1%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
89.7%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Holmes, Bryan, PENALTY APP offside defense (Norwood, Nate) 5 yards to the TROY31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
89.2%
Andre Flakes run for 5 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:2414% → 24%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+45
86.5%
K.D. Edenfield pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 45 yds to the AppSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.6%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.5%
Andre Flakes run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.5%
Brandon Silvers 1 Yd Run (Jed Solomon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5881% → 80%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.4%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
81.6%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
80.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
80.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
76.7%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Tae Hayes return for 18 yds to the Troy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:1283% → 90%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
83.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 15 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
83.9%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 5
OWN 0
+18
80.8%
Marcus Cox run for 18 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.9%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the Troy 1Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
83.9%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 2Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.9%
Barrett Burns 2 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5313% → 28%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
87.5%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-13 Yards) to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 23
OWN 12
+1
87.7%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+8
87.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 8 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+28
88.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 28 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+37
86.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 37 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
84.8%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
84.8%
Andre Flakes run for 2 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
71.6%
Brandon Silvers 5 Yd Run (Jed Solomon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5078% → 92%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.8%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
79.0%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
77.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 9 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
79.0%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+14
79.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 14 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
80.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+17
79.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 17 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
81.7%
Marcus Cox run for 11 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
81.7%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (7 Yards) to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
81.7%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the Troy 2 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-9 Yards) to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
81.7%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 0
OPP 10
+8
82.5%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Meadors, S., PENALTY TROY pass interference (Farmer, L.) 8 yards to the TROY2, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.7%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the Troy 1Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.7%
Taylor Lamb 1 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0913% → 12%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
86.6%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
86.7%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
87.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
88.0%
Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1791% → 89%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
90.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
91.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the AppSt 36Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+2
89.3%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
88.7%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
87.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 15 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
86.3%
Andre Flakes run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
86.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
86.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan Holmes, broken up by Latrell GibbsSimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
88.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
89.6%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
90.7%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Jalen Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 39Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+38
89.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 38 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-9
91.3%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Seth Calloway for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 19
OPP 32
-7
90.8%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the Troy 29 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Davante Harris) to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 26
OPP 39
+5
90.5%
Taylor Lamb run for 5 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 21
OPP 34
+7
89.9%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted William Lloyd return for 7 yds to the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:1914% → 58%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
85.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy Ruben, broken up by Alex GraySimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
86.8%
Andre Flakes run for 3 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+12
86.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 12 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
84.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+9
85.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 9 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
83.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
83.3%
Andre Flakes run for 2 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+19
83.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 19 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
80.9%
Andre Flakes run for 5 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+6
80.9%
Andre Flakes run for 6 yds to the AppSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
44.4%
Teddy Ruben 11 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Jed Solomon Kick)Similar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
42.0%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5060% → 56%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.2%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
59.7%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-1
57.1%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Rashad Dillard and Seth Calloway for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 23Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+14
55.6%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 55 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 14 yds to the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4049% → 46%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
51.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
53.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+3
54.8%
Andre Flakes run for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
54.5%
Ryan Kay punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:2857% → 51%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
56.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 10 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for no gain to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
55.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
53.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Terrence UpshawSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+59
51.1%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the APPALCHAN 21 TROY Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-4
50.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 76%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
41.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 12 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
40.5%
Andre Flakes run for 8 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+2
40.5%
Andre Flakes run for 2 yds to the AppSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.3%
Andre Flakes 3 Yd Run (Jed Solomon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 29TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
28.1%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to McGuire, Montez, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Farmer, L.) 10 yards to the TROY15, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
28.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 4 yds to the Troy 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
28.1%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the Troy 7Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
25.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 1 yd to the Troy 6Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+4
23.2%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.7%
Taylor Lamb 2 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 30FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
64.7%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Cox, Marcus, PENALTY APP holding (Duffield, Levi) 10 yards to the TROY35, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+11
63.2%
Simms McElfresh run for 11 yds to the Troy 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
64.7%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the Troy 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
62.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
79.3%
Zach Matics 38 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 31FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 52%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
70.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
70.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-1
74.5%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 17Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
48.0%
Jed Solomon 34 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 32DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0060% → 52%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
40.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 4 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
40.5%
Brandon Burks run for 8 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
40.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
40.5%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the AppSt 12Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+7
43.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 7 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 5
0
48.0%
John Johnson pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for no gain to the AppSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 33FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0065% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
64.7%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the Troy 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
64.7%
Taylor Lamb run for 5 yds to the Troy 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+15
62.4%
Marcus Cox run for 15 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
64.7%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the Troy 2Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
64.7%
Taylor Lamb run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 7Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
83.1%
Zach Matics 24 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Taylor Lamb 2 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick)
+41.5
TD · Q4 3:49
Teddy Ruben 11 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Jed Solomon Kick)
-36.5
FG · OT 0:00
Jed Solomon 34 Yd Field Goal
-32.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com