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TXST

Texas State 13 at Georgia Southern 37

GASO
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2015 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of GameFG-1.9GASO 85.4%Lumi Kaba 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 14 · Q2 2:27
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:27 · Lumi Kaba 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior+23.1Home team on offense+5.7Score differential+2.1Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:47: Matt Breida run for 48 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +3.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:17: Wesley Fields run for 38 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +4.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:59: Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 23 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Lumi Kaba KICK) — TXST win probability +6.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:55: Younghoe Koo 21 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +4.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:15: LA Ramsby run for 7 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:56GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:38TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 10 at GASO 30, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:19TXST 4th & 5 at GASO 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:11GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:48TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 46, down 11
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:27TXST 4th & 11 at GASO 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 2 at TXST 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%−1.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:02GASO 4th & 17 at TXST 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−6.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:02TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:55GASO 4th & 3 at TXST 4, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:55TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:49GASO 4th & 6 at TXST 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:05GASO 4th & 1 at TXST 28, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:38GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:47GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:17GASO Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:59TXST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:15GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.0%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
88.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+12
88.0%
Lumi Kaba punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 28 , Derek Keaton returns for 12 yds to the GeoSo 46 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the GeoSo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 2:1888% → 88%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
87.7%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
87.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
87.7%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+26
87.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 26 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
87.8%
Matt Breida run for 37 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.6%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
87.6%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
87.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 6 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
87.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
87.7%
Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds, downed at the GeoSo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4FUMBLE
11 plays · 44 yds · 0:0087% → 88%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
87.4%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+13
87.4%
Matt Breida run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
87.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Derek KeatonSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
87.5%
LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+7
87.5%
LA Ramsby run for 7 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
87.7%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
87.7%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+4
87.6%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
87.7%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
87.7%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-1
87.6%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 30 Kevin Ellison fumbled, forced by Rusmin Nikocevic, recovered by TexSt Aaron ShawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:2114% → 14%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
86.5%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
86.4%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
86.2%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
86.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 15 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for no gain to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
86.1%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+4
86.0%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
85.8%
Tyler Jones sacked by Jay Ellison for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+1
85.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
85.1%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 30
0
85.8%
Jack Rhoades pass incomplete to Lumi KabaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 3:0086% → 90%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
86.0%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Ryan Longoria for 8 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
86.5%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
86.2%
LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
86.5%
LA Ramsby run for 8 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
86.6%
LA Ramsby run for 1 yd to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+48
89.5%
Matt Breida run for 48 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 4:2812% → 14%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.4%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
88.4%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
88.6%
Robert Lowe run for 20 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.1%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+23
87.7%
Robert Lowe run for 23 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
86.9%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+7
86.7%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
86.7%
Tyler Siudzinski run for no gain to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
86.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
87.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
86.2%
Lumi Kaba 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
87.0%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
86.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
86.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Derek KeatonSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
86.4%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
85.9%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
85.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+8
86.3%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
86.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 40 yds, downed at the GeoSo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
86.7%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-7
86.6%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 8 Matt Breida fumbled, recovered by TexSt Karee BerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1015% → 15%
Q2 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
85.1%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
85.1%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
87.3%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
85.4%
Lumi Kaba 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12FUMBLE
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:1587% → 87%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
87.1%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+14
87.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 14 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
87.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Ryan Longoria for 13 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
87.3%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+15
87.3%
K. Ellison deep middle pass incomplete to L. Ramsby, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Alexcee, Damani) 15 yards to the TXST7, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
87.3%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.3%
LA Ramsby run for no gain to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
87.0%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Aaron Shaw for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 12 Kevin Ellison fumbled, recovered by TexSt Trey McGowan , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
85.2%
TEAM takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4387% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.6%
Matt Breida run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
87.0%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
87.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
87.0%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
87.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
50
+3
87.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+3
87.2%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+3
86.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
87.7%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+38
92.3%
Wesley Fields run for 38 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:189% → 18%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
90.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 7 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Darrius White) to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
90.0%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+8
89.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 8 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
89.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 16 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
88.9%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
89.4%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
82.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 23 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:5786% → 89%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.2%
Matt Breida run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
86.3%
Wesley Fields run for 16 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
87.6%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
87.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+10
87.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for 10 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
87.9%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+8
87.9%
LA Ramsby run for 8 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
87.9%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-11
87.9%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the TexSt 12 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Darien Foreman) to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 17
OPP 27
0
86.5%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 17
OPP 27
+44
88.5%
Younghoe Koo 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
89.2%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
89.5%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
90.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+60
90.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 50 yds , Derek Keaton returns for 60 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0291% → 95%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
90.5%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
90.5%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
90.0%
LA Ramsby run for no gain to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
94.6%
Younghoe Koo 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.0%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
92.3%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
93.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
93.2%
Lumi Kaba punt for 52 yds, downed at the GeoSo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 1:1995% → 99%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
94.9%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+64
95.1%
Wesley Fields run for 64 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.0%
LA Ramsby run for 7 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.9%
Robert Lowe run for 11 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
98.9%
Tyler Jones run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
50
+6
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 6 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
98.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 5 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Antonio Glover return for no gain to the GeoSo 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22FG
10 plays · 88 yds · 6:0299% → 100%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
99.0%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+2
98.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+44
99.0%
Matt Breida run for 44 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 5 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+29
99.1%
Wesley Fields run for 29 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
99.1%
LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+2
99.1%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 4
OPP 6
-2
99.1%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
99.6%
Younghoe Koo 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 5 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
99.3%
Connor White pass intercepted Caleb Williams return for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.7%
Chaz Thornton run for 5 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+2
99.7%
Chaz Thornton run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
99.7%
Noah Hickey run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+1
99.7%
Noah Hickey run for 1 yd to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
99.7%
TEAM takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:59
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 23 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Lumi Kaba KICK)
-6.9
FG · Q4 14:55
Younghoe Koo 21 yd FG GOOD
+4.6
TD · Q3 10:17
Wesley Fields run for 38 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com