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USA

South Alabama 18 at Texas State 36

TXST
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Lumi Kaba punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense+20.0Pregame prior+8.7Score differential+15.0Garbage-time factor+6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:08: Robert Lowe 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — TXST win probability +9.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Aleem Sunanon 53 yd FG MISSED , Brandon McDowell return for 100 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK) — TXST win probability +6.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 15:00: TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — TXST win probability +12.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:46: D.J. Vinson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +6.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:15: Gerald Everett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cody Clements pass to Danny Woodson for Two-Point Conversion) — USA win probability +9.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 5 at USA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:50TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:05USA 4th & 11 at TXST 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:58USA 4th & 12 at TXST 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:28USA 4th & 7 at TXST 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:36TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:02USA 4th & 2 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.1%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:19USA 4th & 4 at TXST 46, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%
    23% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 30, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:45USA 4th & 9 at USA 36, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:21TXST 4th & 2 at USA 48, up 23
    Close callPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:24USA 4th & 8 at USA 3, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:07USA 4th & 10 at USA 15, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:16TXST 4th & 8 at USA 48, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:37TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 30, up 16
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:24USA 4th & 4 at USA 7, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:08TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:49USA 4th & 22 at USA 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 10:28TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:08TXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:00TXST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:46USA Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:15USA Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:54TXST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Claude Garrett for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-2
67.5%
Cody Clements sacked by Jr. Marcus Dallas for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
67.5%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
67.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 6 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
67.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
67.5%
Cody Clements run for 3 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
67.2%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 14Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+2
67.2%
C.J. Best run for 2 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+12
67.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 12 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
67.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+8
67.2%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
67.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
67.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 59 yds, downed at the SAlab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3FG
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:0533% → 34%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
66.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+1
66.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 14Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+61
67.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 61 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
66.2%
Terrance Timmons run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+9
66.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 9 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
66.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 15
OPP 19
0
66.3%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+4
66.4%
Cody Clements pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 4 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
66.5%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
65.6%
Aleem Sunanon 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4INT
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
65.7%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
65.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 2 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+18
65.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 3 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, targeting (E.J. May) to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
66.5%
Jones, Tyler post pass incomplete to Smith, Brandon, PENALTY USA pass interference (Margo Reed) 15 yards to the USA32, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
66.8%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-10
66.8%
Jones, Tyler rush M for 17 yards to the USA11 (Margo Reed), PENALTY TXST holding (Bellard, Adrian) 10 yards to the USA38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 16
OPP 38
-10
66.1%
Tyler Jones sacked by DeMarion Harper for a loss of 10 yards to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 26
OPP 48
-5
65.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Robert Lowe) to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 31
OWN 47
0
65.5%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Jalen Thompson return for no gain to the SAlab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
64.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
64.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+31
65.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 31 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
64.0%
Terrance Timmons run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-5
64.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-5
64.2%
Cody Clements sacked by Dondre Elvoid and Dallas McClarty for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 17
OPP 49
+5
64.8%
Cody Clements run for 5 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
65.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 5:0163% → 69%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
63.4%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+5
63.2%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+21
62.7%
Tyler Jones run for 21 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
63.6%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+10
63.6%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
64.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 9 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+1
65.1%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
65.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 15 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
65.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 8 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+21
65.7%
Tyler Jones run for 21 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
65.7%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the SAlab 3Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.5%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (James Sherman PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
66.7%
Xavier Johnson rush M for 6 yards to the USA31 (Alexcee, Damani;Sepert, Brazos), PENALTY USA illegal formation 5 yards to the USA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+33
66.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to DeMarrion Buford-Hughes for 18 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, roughing passer (Donta Clanton) to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
64.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 39 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+9
66.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 9 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+6
65.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Danny Woodson for 6 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-5
65.9%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
66.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
67.0%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
66.9%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
65.9%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
65.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Magee at the SAlab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
65.0%
Xavier Johnson rush over left tackle for 2 yards to the USA44 (Jeter-Gilmon, Jerrid), PENALTY USA holding (Curtis Williams) 10 yards to the USA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+8
66.6%
Cody Clements run for 8 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
65.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Braedon Bowman for no gain to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+10
66.7%
Cody Clements run for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 2
50
-3
65.6%
Aleem Sunanon run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:3869% → 78%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
69.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 24 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
69.8%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+7
69.8%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
69.8%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
69.8%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+3
68.9%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the SAlab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.9%
Robert Lowe 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11MISSED FG TD
14 plays · 39 yds · 1:0825% → 20%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 11 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
73.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
74.5%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Danny Woodson, broken up by Brandon McDowellSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+10
74.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 10 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.1%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
73.6%
Terrance Timmons run for 6 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
74.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald Everett, broken up by Aaron ShawSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+10
75.9%
Terrance Timmons run for 10 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+100
79.8%
Aleem Sunanon 53 yd FG MISSED , Brandon McDowell return for 100 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
92.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
93.2%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
92.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for 6 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
92.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-5
92.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Steven Foster) to the SAlab 36Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
92.6%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin Shinn, broken up by David MimsSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
92.7%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 51 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for no gain to the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+31
94.1%
Robert Lowe run for 31 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
94.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Tyler Jones) to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
94.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+2
94.3%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+11
94.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 11 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
94.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 47 yds, downed at the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
94.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
94.7%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 3Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
94.8%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+3
94.8%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Brandon McDowell returns for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:4996% → 96%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
50
+18
95.6%
Tyler Jones run for 18 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
95.7%
Robert Lowe run for 16 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.6%
Robert Lowe run for 16 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
95.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Claude Garrett for no gain to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
95.7%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to D.J. Vinson, broken up by Damani AlexceeSimilar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
95.7%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
95.7%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
50
+2
95.9%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
95.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
95.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 8
OPP 48
+5
95.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 40 yds , Chris Lewis returns for 5 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 3:394% → 11%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
96.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for 7 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 20
-5
95.9%
Tyreis Thomas rush over left tackle for 13 yards to the USA33 (Shaw, Aaron), PENALTY USA illegal shift (Braedon Bowman) 5 yards to the USA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+10
96.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for 10 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.0%
Terrance Timmons run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-15
95.8%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Marvin Shinn SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chris May) to the SAlab 14Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+21
96.1%
Cody Clements run for 21 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
95.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for 11 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+43
95.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 43 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
95.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for 1 yd to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+7
95.3%
D.J. Vinson pass complete to Claude Garrett for 7 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
89.2%
D.J. Vinson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
92.6%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-11
92.8%
Lowe, Robert rush over right end for 3 yards to the TXST36 (Blake Dees), PENALTY TXST holding (Carden, Ryan) 11 yards to the TXST22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+6
92.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 6 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+2
92.5%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
92.0%
Lumi Kaba punt for 69 yds, downed at the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:208% → 8%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
91.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 1 yd to the SAlab 2Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
92.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+2
92.4%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 2 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q4 14:24
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
92.1%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the SAlab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:2895% → 97%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.5%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+34
94.4%
Robert Lowe run for 34 yds to the SAlab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
94.5%
Lowe, Robert rush over right end for 2 yards to the USA8 (DeMarion Harper;Blake Dees), PENALTY TXST holding (Crawford, Zach) 10 yards to the USA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+1
94.5%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the SAlab 19Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
94.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
94.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+36
97.3%
Lumi Kaba 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:325% → 15%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
95.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 28 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
95.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+15
95.1%
Cody Clements post pass incomplete to Marvin Shinn, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Mims, David) 15 yards to the TXST31, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
94.5%
Tyreis Thomas rush M for 3 yards to the TXST28 (Jeter-Gilmon, Jerrid), PENALTY USA illegal formation 5 yards to the TXST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+20
95.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 20 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
94.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for 7 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+4
94.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
94.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.7%
Gerald Everett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cody Clements pass to Danny Woodson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
90.1%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-5
90.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Adrian Bellard) to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
90.0%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+9
89.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 9 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
90.5%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-2
90.4%
C.J. Best run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+4
89.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
89.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 46 yds, downed at the SAlab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
91.3%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+15
91.5%
Cody Clements sideline pass incomplete to Trrnce Timmons, PENALTY TXST roughing passer (McClarty, Dallas) 15 yards to the USA32, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
90.2%
Tyreis Thomas run for 14 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.4%
Cody Clements pass complete to Tony Ray Parnell for no gain to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-16
89.3%
Cody Clements sacked by Jr. Marcus Dallas for a loss of 16 yards to the SAlab 30 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 26
OWN 30
+4
92.0%
Cody Clements run for 4 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 22
OWN 34
0
92.1%
Aleem Sunanon punt for 50 yds, downed at the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 1:5193% → 99%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
93.4%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+23
93.6%
Robert Lowe run for 23 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
94.3%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+2
95.7%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+54
99.1%
Robert Lowe run for 54 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
98.6%
Terrance Timmons run for 4 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-5
98.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Curtis Williams) to the SAlab 8Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+9
98.6%
Cody Clements run for 9 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST down Terrance Timmons for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
98.4%
Trrnce Timmons rush over right tackle for no gain to the USA32 (Anyama, Easy), PENALTY TXST 12 men on the field 5 yards to the USA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+4
98.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+5
98.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 5 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 15:00
TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line
+12.4
TD · Q4 10:15
Gerald Everett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cody Clements pass to Danny Woodson for Two-Point Conversion)
-9.6
TD · Q2 1:08
Robert Lowe 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com