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TROY

Troy 52 at New Mexico State 7

NMSU
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:08 · Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 12 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:40: Brandon Burks run for 92 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +3.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:46: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 37 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +6.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:55: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 14 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +5.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:29: Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 13 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:56: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 54 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK) — TROY win probability +9.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:08TROY 4th & 6 at NMSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:23NMSU 4th & 1 at TROY 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−0.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:23NMSU 4th & 10 at TROY 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:40NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 10 at TROY 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:24NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:13NMSU 4th & 13 at TROY 45, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    6.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:09TROY 4th & 13 at NMSU 27, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 45, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:59TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 18, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:29NMSU 4th & 11 at TROY 45, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:31TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 16, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:08NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 29, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:55TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 39, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:28NMSU 4th & 16 at TROY 38, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 6 at NMSU 40, up 45
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:53NMSU 4th & 14 at TROY 17, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:53TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 25, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:24NMSU 4th & 3 at TROY 10, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:33TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 31, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:27TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:40TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:46TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:24TROY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:55TROY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:29NMSU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:56TROY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
39.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
39.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for no gain to the NMxSt 34 Gregory Hogan fumbled, recovered by Troy Justin LucasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:4160% → 61%
Q1 14:08
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+12
39.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 12 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
39.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+5
39.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
39.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
39.6%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
39.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for no gain to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
39.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 4 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
39.5%
Royce Caldwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+12
39.4%
Andrew Allen run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
39.7%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 8 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
39.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
39.8%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+4
39.6%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
39.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
39.8%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
39.7%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
39.4%
Anthony Torres punt for 37 yds, downed at the Troy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
2 plays · 97 yds · 0:5161% → 64%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
39.0%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+92
35.6%
Brandon Burks run for 92 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
36.5%
Andrew Allen run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
36.7%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-5
36.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+5
36.4%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
36.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+30
36.3%
Anthony Torres punt for 43 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 30 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 1:2266% → 73%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
33.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 5 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
33.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 6 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
26.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 37 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:3928% → 26%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+22
28.2%
Larry Rose III run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
28.3%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+15
28.6%
Larry Rose III run for 15 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
29.2%
Andrew Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 11
50
+1
29.1%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
28.9%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+1
26.1%
Anthony Torres punt for 31 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 1 yd to the Troy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:2876% → 80%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
23.9%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
23.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 7 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
24.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-4
23.9%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+13
24.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 13 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
23.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 17 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
20.9%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+18
21.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
20.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jarvis Bentley for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing passer (Stephen Meredith) to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
20.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
20.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 13 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.1%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
14.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-13
14.5%
Allen, Andrew pass complete to Hogan, Gregory for 10 yards to the NMSU36 (Kitchens, M.), PENALTY NMSU illegal block (Rose III, Larry) 13 yards to the NMSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+7
15.1%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
15.1%
Anthony Torres punt for 56 yds, downed at the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:3780% → 87%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
19.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon BurksSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
19.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 11 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
19.6%
Brandon Burks run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
18.9%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Thompson, E., PENALTY NMSU offside (Trujillo, A) 5 yards to the NMSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+12
18.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 12 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
18.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (DeMarcus Owens) to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
12.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 14 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2610% → 10%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
10.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 60 yds to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
10.9%
Andrew Allen run for 2 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
10.6%
Rayvean Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
10.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 13 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:3382% → 93%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
17.7%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Bentley, Jarvis, PENALTY TROY holding (Crumitie, D.) 4 yards to the TROY4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+7
17.6%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+5
17.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+30
17.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 30 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.9%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+54
7.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 54 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:435% → 4%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
5.2%
Andrew Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+34
5.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 34 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
4.9%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
4.6%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+2
4.6%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 13
OPP 45
-9
4.2%
Andrew Allen sacked by Rashad Dillard for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:5894% → 93%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
6.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 22 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
6.2%
Andre Flakes run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 13
OPP 27
0
6.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
6.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+44
6.7%
Jed Solomon 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:543% → 3%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.3%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
3.1%
Larry Rose III run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
3.3%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
2.6%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-2
2.6%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Xavier Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
3.8%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.9%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
3.7%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
3.9%
Xavier Hall run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
4.0%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by Demetrius CainSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
-3
3.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-2
3.8%
Andrew Allen sacked by Demetrius Cain for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
3.7%
Anthony Torres punt for 37 yds, downed at the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
3.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
3.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
3.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+21
4.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 44 , Joshua Bowen returns for 21 yds to the Troy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
2.9%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
2.8%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
2.8%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
2.7%
Anthony Torres punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
2.8%
Andre Flakes run for 2 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+1
2.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 1 yd to the Troy 16Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
2.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jarvis BentleySimilar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 7
OWN 16
-5
3.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 60 yds , Joshua Bowen returns for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
1.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 7 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+7
1.9%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.9%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
1.8%
Xavier Hall run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-10
1.8%
Allen, Andrew rush for 11 yards to the 50 yardline (Lloyd, William), PENALTY NMSU holding (McMeans, A) 10 yards to the NMSU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 14
OWN 29
0
1.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
1.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
1.9%
Brandon Burks run for 11 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
1.8%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+5
1.9%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-5
1.8%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
1.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+3
2.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 16 , Joshua Bowen returns for 3 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:421% → 1%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
1.2%
Andrew Allen run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
1.2%
Andrew Allen run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
1.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+33
0.7%
Andrew Allen run for 4 yds Andrew Allen fumbled, forced by Terris Lewis, recovered by Troy Rashad Dillard , return for 33 yds, (Jed Solomon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
0.8%
Larry Rose III run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
50
+18
0.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 18 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
0.9%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-9
0.9%
Royce Caldwell run for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 16
OPP 38
0
0.8%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 16
OPP 38
0
0.7%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:3499% → 99%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
0.8%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 18 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.8%
Andre Flakes run for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
0.7%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+4
0.7%
Andre Flakes run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
0.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25MISSED FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:140% → 0%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
0.4%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 7 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
0.4%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.4%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
0.4%
Larry Rose III run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
0.4%
Allen, Andrew pass incomplete, PENALTY TROY offside (Cain, Demetrius) 5 yards to the NMSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 5
OWN 45
0
0.4%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Xavier HallSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-1
0.4%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+43
0.4%
Larry Rose III run for 43 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
0.5%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
0.4%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by LaMarcus FarmerSimilar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 13
OPP 16
-1
0.4%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 17Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+35
0.3%
Parker Davidson 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
0.3%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Andre Flakes for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
0.3%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Andre FlakesSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+1
0.3%
Dallas Tidwell run for 1 yd to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+19
0.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 42 yds , Joshua Bowen returns for 19 yds to the Troy 48 Joshua Bowen fumbled, forced by Montres Kitchens, recovered by NMxSt Dion HenriqueSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
0.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 19 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
0.3%
Andrew Allen run for 4 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
0.2%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
0.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Rayvean Moore for 3 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
0.3%
Jermichael Selders run for 7 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
0.2%
Jermichael Selders run for no gain to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
0.2%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 3
OPP 10
0
0.2%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28END OF GAME
9 plays · 22 yds · 4:50100% → 100%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
0.2%
Andre Flakes run for 6 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+6
0.2%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Nyck Young for 6 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
0.2%
Andre Flakes run for 2 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-6
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+13
0.2%
Andre Flakes run for 13 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+5
0.1%
Andre Flakes run for 5 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:56
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 54 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q1 2:46
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 37 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q2 7:55
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 14 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com