2015 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2015 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreGASO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:31 · Ryan Nowicki punt for 48 yds , Bobo Beathard returns for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:48: Marcus Cox run for 18 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +4.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:48: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 9 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +7.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Younghoe Koo kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — GASO win probability +4.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:00: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 33 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +9.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:33: Marcus Cox run for 6 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 8:35APP 4th & 4 at GASO 27, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snapGo for it64.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call64.1%−0.162% to makePunt63.0%−1.1average punt
- Q1 3:46GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 43, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snapGo for it35.2%−1.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.2%average punt
- Q1 0:28APP 4th & 12 at APP 38, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snapGo for it61.3%−0.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.1%average punt
- Q2 12:39GASO 4th & 15 at GASO 4, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snapGo for it35.4%−2.014% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.4%average punt
- Q2 8:41GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snapGo for it32.0%−0.933% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.8%average punt
- Q2 1:59GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it21.8%−0.735% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q3 13:38APP 4th & 3 at APP 32, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snapGo for it77.2%−0.552% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.7%average punt
- Q3 11:47GASO 4th & 2 at APP 48, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt21.3%−1.2average punt
- Q3 9:36GASO 4th & 12 at APP 18, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snapGo for it17.8%−2.021% to convertField goalTheir call19.7%79% to makePunt12.6%−7.2average punt
- Q3 6:18APP 4th & 16 at APP 40, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snapGo for it78.7%−2.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.9%average punt
- Q3 1:31GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 37, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q4 14:45APP 4th & 10 at APP 12, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snapGo for it93.5%−1.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.6%average punt
- Q4 8:20APP 4th & 1 at GASO 9, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.8%71% to convertField goal95.8%−0.989% to makePunt93.5%−3.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 11:11GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.3%97% to makeGo for two34.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:48APP Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.8%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:48APP Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.2%97% to makeGo for two76.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:00APP Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.4%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:33APP Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.4%45% to convert
- Q4 3:31GASO Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick1.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1TD9 plays · 86 yds · 3:1932% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2FG8 plays · 43 yds · 2:3066% → 66%
Q1 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+19
66.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Isaiah Lewis for 19 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT11 plays · 18 yds · 4:3434% → 35%
Q1 6:00
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+19
65.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 19 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Olawale Dada) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
64.2%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 46 Wesley Fields fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Wesley FieldsSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
65.0%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:0264% → 63%
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+20
63.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 20 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
64.8%
Cox, Marcus rush left for 14 yards to the GASOUTHERN46, out-of-bounds, PENALTY APPALCHAN holding (Harris, Davante) 10 yards to the APPALCHAN30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 12
OWN 38
-3
62.5%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 50 yds , Derek Keaton returns for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 2:2137% → 37%
Q2 14:14
3RD & 3
OWN 16
-8
63.3%
Upshaw, Favian rush quarterback draw for 46 yards to the APPALCHAN38, PENALTY GASOUTHERN holding (Foreman, Darien) 8 yards to the GASOUTHERN8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 15
OWN 4
+2
63.4%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 39 yds , Bobo Beathard returns for 2 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD5 plays · 41 yds · 1:3764% → 69%
Q2 11:21
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+16
63.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 16 yds to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4933% → 32%
APPDrive 8TD11 plays · 76 yds · 4:1267% → 78%
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+11
67.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 11 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+30
69.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 30 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
78.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 9 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3123% → 21%
APPDrive 10DOWNS14 plays · 31 yds · 1:3078% → 80%
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
79.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 3 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
79.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 8 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
79.1%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Jamal Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+6
80.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 6 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
80.0%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Parker Collins) to the GeoSo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0778% → 77%
GASODrive 12MISSED FG9 plays · 38 yds · 3:4923% → 20%
APPDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 3:1080% → 80%
Q3 8:41
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+25
79.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 25 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
81.7%
Cox, Marcus rush left for 9 yards to the GASOUTHERN45, PENALTY APPALCHAN holding (Nunn, Beau) 10 yards to the APPALCHAN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+13
80.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Isaiah Lewis for 13 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-4
82.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Colby Gossett) to the AppSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14INT2 plays · 3 yds · 0:1819% → 19%
APPDrive 15TD4 plays · 52 yds · 2:0083% → 94%
GASODrive 16PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:147% → 7%
APPDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1594% → 94%
Q4 14:45
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+11
94.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 58 yds , Derek Keaton returns for 11 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18INT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:416% → 5%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
94.0%
Upshaw, Favian pass right sideline incomplete to Breida, Matt thrown to the GASOUTHERN40, PENALTY GASOUTHERN holding (Kwon, Andy) 10 yards to the GASOUTHERN31, NO PLAY, QB hurry by Blair, Ronald.Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 16
OWN 35
0
95.0%
Favian Upshaw pass intercepted Alex Gray return for no gain to the AppSt 35 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Favian Upshaw) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD13 plays · 65 yds · 6:5396% → 99%
GASODrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:291% → 2%
APPDrive 21END OF GAME7 plays · 40 yds · 3:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:00
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 33 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 3:48
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 9 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)
+7.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Younghoe Koo kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-4.3